Last week was the fifth time this season that I have hit on all three MLB player props in this column. There were two other instances where I went 2-0 with one push. Hopefully, we can keep this train running for a few more weeks. Admittedly, coming up with a trio of picks I liked for Wednesday’s slate was a bit more difficult than usual. With several games wrapping up late on the West Coast on Tuesday, most sportsbooks had not yet posted props for Wednesday’s game when I was scouring the board. If I add any others to the player props below, I will do so on Twitter. Luckily I was able to find a few spots I like for Wednesday’s MLB slate. Although as you will see below, I have only locked in two as of the time of this writing.
All picks are outlined below. As always, adjust any plays as needed and shop for the best price. These prices often change throughout the day, so it is generally better to get in early if you can.
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MLB Player Props for August 2
Luis Rengifo OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+108, BetRivers)
Luis Rengifo is not exactly known for his pop. His slugging percentage this season is just .394, and his career number is .376. But Rengifo is on a tear of late. And, not coincidentally, his hot streak began on the day the Los Angeles Angels inserted him into the leadoff spot. It turns out hitting in front of Shohei Ohtani is a good thing. Who would have thought it? To that end though, allow me to make the following disclaimer. Ohtani has not had a day off in forever, and he is scheduled to pitch across the country in a home game on Thursday. It would not stun me if the Angels rest Ohtani on Wednesday. If that is the case, I will not be playing this prop. If Ohtani is playing and I lose a couple of cents on the dollar in closing line value, so be it.
Luis Rengifo has registered two or more total bases in eight of 10 games since the lineup switch. In that stretch, his slugging percentage is .732. The two misses came in games started by Kevin Gausman and Spencer Strider. Wednesday’s starter for the Atlanta Braves is Yonny Chirinos. Chirinos is not anywhere near the level of either of those two hurlers. The only thing Chirinos has in common with either pitcher is that he and Gausman both throw a splitter. That is basically where any similarity ends. Chirinos has struck out only 34 batters in 66.1 innings this year. He pitches to contact, which means Rengifo should put the ball in play. As long as Ohtani is in the lineup, I will be playing Luis Rengifo’s total base player prop in this game.
2-Leg Same Game Parlay (SGP): Manny Machado 2+ Total Bases/Joe Musgrove 5+ Strikeouts (+114, FanDuel)
Manny Machado had an excellent month in July, posting a 192 wRC+ on the strength of a .681 slugging percentage. He has also raked against left-handed pitchers for the majority of the year. Machado enters Wednesday’s game hitting .330 and slugging .536 versus lefties this season. He now gets one of the softest matchups on the slate when he faces Kyle Freeland in Coors Field. Among 63 qualified starters this season, Freeland allows the third-highest overall batting average (.286) and has the second-lowest K-BB% (6.8 percent). He also has not been able to contain right-handed hitters. Freeland has allowed righties to hit .303 and slug .517 this year. In addition, Freeland has been struggling of late. In July, he had a 6.16 xFIP and allowed opponents to hit at a .338 clip while slugging .527.
Their head-to-head history suggests more of the same. They have squared off 26 times in Colorado in their careers. Machado is 10-for-24 in those meetings with four doubles, two walks, and two strikeouts. Freeland has faced at least 22 hitters in 10 consecutive starts. Odds are that Machado will get three looks at Freeland in this game. I expect Machado to take full advantage of this matchup, and record two or more total bases. If he cannot manage to get there against Freeland, we always have the Colorado bullpen to fall back on. Since July 1, Rockies relievers are allowing a 4.56 xFIP, the eighth highest in the Major Leagues.
Joe Musgrove has recorded five or more strikeouts in seven straight starts and 14 of 17 overall this season. Since the All-Star break, Colorado has struck out in 26.5 percent of plate appearances against right-handers. That includes a 26.8 percent mark at home. They also just traded away two of their better hitters in C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk. Musgrove also has a good history against Colorado’s hitters. He has recorded 13 strikeouts in 36 plate appearances against the five Rockies most likely to be in their lineup. I believe both Manny Machado and Joe Musgrove will have productive afternoons on Wednesday, and I think this SGP is the best way to capitalize on their respective matchups.
Matt McLain OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-125, DraftKings)
The prices on this game seem a little off to me, although that may change as the day goes on. Drew Smyly has been atrocious at home lately, and the wind is supposed to be blowing out to left field on Wednesday. No, I do not expect another 29 runs, as was the case Tuesday. However, I do like Cincinnati to get to Smyly early and often. I believe there are several ways to attack this matchup, but I feel like this player prop is the one most likely to hit. And considering the relatively affordable price, this might be my favorite pick of the day.
Matt McLain has destroyed left-handed pitching since being called up in mid-May. McLain enters this game with a 1.068 OPS versus southpaws. The rookie has a Run-Value Per 100 of 2.1 or higher against both the sinker and curveball, which Smyly throws 90 percent of the time. In his only career matchup against Smyly, McLain went 3-for-3 with a double. That game was the first in what is now a five-game home streak where Smyly has surrendered five or more runs. McLain should bat third on Wednesday, which is a prime spot to accumulate runs and RBI. Considering the matchup and ballpark (Ballpark Pal gives McLain a 31 percent HR boost on Wednesday), I do not mind playing other McLain player props including his total bases. Chicago’s bullpen has been a strength, but McLain should do enough damage against Smyly for that not to matter.