USA! USA! USA! The 2024 Summer Olympics are finally here, and with it comes a very unique week of golf. This will only be the 5th time golf is played at The Olympics, with it restarting after a century-long hiatus in 2016. Justin Rose and Xander Schauffele have claimed the 2 gold medals. With it being so new, the Gold Medal does not have the same feel as a major championship. However, I believe that with time, The Olympics will be looked at in a special light, similar to The Ryder Cup. It’s unreasonable to make a gold medal as necessary as a major championship for a player’s legacy. If the sport hopefully continues to be played in the games, the historical significance will grow, but even the best golfers will get no more than 4 or 5 chances.
With that said, all 60 golfers still feel the importance of this opportunity. To be able to win for your country is one of the highest honors in sports, especially for a lot of the lower-ranked golfers. Golf is still growing in many countries, and these golfers will be the face of the future for the sport in their countries. To have a chance for something only 4 guys have done in the history of the sport is something special. But Le Golf National presents a very challenging test, and only the best this week will have a chance to take home a medal.
The Course: Le Golf National
Le Golf National is one of the premier courses in France. It has long hosted the Cazoo Open de France on the DPWT. The par 71 course typically stretches to 7,250 yards, long enough to make distance a nice addition, but not a necessity. Rough and water will be an issue throughout the entirety of the round. Tommy Fleetwood, Alex Noren, and Guido Migliozzi all return as previous winners, but most have never teed it up at Le Golf National.
The French Open has typically seen the cream rise to the top, with Fleetwood and Noren both winning as the best golfers in their field. It truly takes an all-around performance to take advantage of birdie opportunities and limit the easy bogeys. Aaron Rai, one of the hottest golfers on the planet, shot a +18 in 2 rounds the last time these golfers saw the course. It’s safe to say that half this field will play their ways out of contention early, so I would expect one of the big guns to take this coveted prize.
Best Bets: 2024 Olympics
Collin Morikawa (+1100)
Speaking of Big Guns, Collin Morikawa is undoubtedly one of the more overlooked. On a team of 4 for Team USA, Collin Morikawa, the 6th best golfer in the world, is the 4th option. He currently sits behind Wyndham Clark, although if you compare their recent form, Morikawa wins by a landslide. So Morikawa is overshadowed by the greats Scheffler and Schauffele, and that’s exactly when he pounces.
Morikawa’s 2024 season has been about as strong as it can be without grabbing a win. His late 2023 win at The ZOZO is good enough for me, though. Dating back to The Masters, Morikawa has 10 consecutive events of finishing T16 or better. This stretch includes all 4 majors and 4 other Signature Events. He has been knocking at the door all year, and it’s only a matter of time before he wins once again. Le Golf National sets up perfectly for how he’s been playing, consistently across the whole game. In his last 8 events, Collin Morikawa has gained strokes Off the Tee and Approaching the Green in all 8! He’s gained strokes Putting and Around the Green in all but 1 event. No one on the planet can put up numbers to compare.
So when I say it’ll take an all-around performance to win gold, Collin Morikawa has the perfect game to do so. At 11-1, I really don’t mind his current odds. There are realistically probably 15 golfers that can truly win the gold medal, and Collin Morikawa is certainly one of them. A win here may just carry over for him to win the FedEx Cup…look out for Collin Morikawa!
Kristoffer Ventura (Top Nordic +4000, Top 10 +1600)
Most of you probably don’t recognize Kristoffer Ventura’s name, but for me, he’s been in my sights for 5 years. His game was flourishing around the same time as fellow countryman Viktor Hovland, but definitely hit some speed bumps along the way. After 2 wins on The Korn Ferry in 2019, Ventura missed the majority of the cuts on Tour in 2020 and 2021. If everything goes well to end this season, he’ll earn his Tour card once again through his great play on The Korn Ferry Tour.
Although he hasn’t won since 2019, Ventura has played some very strong golf this season. He comes to France with 7 Top 25s in his last 10 events. This includes 6 Top 15 finishes. Although the strokes gained are not visible on the Korn Ferry, it is clear that Ventura’s game is consistent across the board with heavy influence on his ball-striking capabilities. He averages about 10-15 yards longer Off the Tee. When he’s teed it up on Tour, he’s putted very well, gaining strokes in roughly 70% of the events. All in all, Kristoffer Ventura has always had the ability to play strong golf, and he’s finally doing it once again. And this time, it’s on the world’s biggest stage.
His current odds to win gold are 400-1. While I don’t think he’s capable of beating the best, I think he can beat a handful of them. That’s why my main play for Ventura is to finish as the Top Nordic player. There are 8 of them, including Ludvig Aberg, Viktor Hovland, and Alex Noren. But besides those 3, it’s even game for the rest. If Ventura can find some success and those 3 struggle some, this 40-1 ticket is going to look really great. He may even cash it finishing near 20th!