Well, it’s that time of year again! With less than a month before pitchers and catchers report to their respective camps for Spring Training, now seems like the perfect time to talk pitching. More specifically, late-round pitchers to target in your roto or categories-league draft.
You probably know the drill, the late rounds are all about upside. And as far as starting pitchers go, there sure is a bounty of players who have the upside to change the complexion of your roster. Each one of them has the potential to crack the top 15 if things break just right. And considering they’re all from the 18th round of standard 12-team-league drafts or later (and in some cases outside of the drafted player pool), that sure is a big deal.
Situations are sure to change from now until Opening Day, so assuming your draft is still a ways away, be sure to keep an eye on these names. We here at Fantrax will keep you updated, of course, and I plan to write a starting pitcher sleepers article next month, so do check back.
10 Late-Round Pitchers to Target
Note: ADPs are based on NFBC’s 30-day average.
Mackenzie Gore SP Nationals ADP 209
2024: 166.1 IP 10-12 W-L 181 K 3.90 ERA 1.42 WHIP
Mackenzie Gore’s 2024 season had three distinct acts. The first, lasting about half the season (15 starts) showed us his ace-like potential (3.26 ERA/1.38 WHIP/11.0 K/9/2.81 BB/9). The 2nd, covering 10 starts from late June to August, and coinciding with a slight velocity dip, reminded us that player development is not always linear (7.09 ERA/1.98 WHIP/7.5 K/9/5.72 BB/9). And the resilient final act, the last seven starts, left many baseball analysts excited for a 2025 breakout campaign (1.55 ERA/0.91 WHIP/9.96 K/9/2.43 BB/9). Considering the underlying stats mostly back up the good results (average exit velocity, whiff rate, K rate, and barrel rate all landed at the 65th percentile or better), and that control is often the last piece of the puzzle for a young pitcher (still just 25 years old), the power lefty carries a ton of upside value.
Spencer Arrighetti APD 222
2024: 145IP 7-13 W-L 171K 4.53 ERA 1.41 WHIP
Not many pitchers had more 10+ strikeout games in 2024 than Spencer Arrighetti. Only six had more, in fact. Early-round sorts like Chris Sale, Garrett Crochet, and Blake Snell. Arrighetti’s four times were more than Tarik Skubal and Cole Ragans. If that’s not eye-opening, take a look at how he did in the 2nd half of the season: 12GS 71IP 10.8 K/9 3.04 ERA 1.14 WHIP. OK, fine, the 24-year-old wasn’t a highly anticipated call-up last year. But he knows how to miss bats (79th percentile K rate and 11.5 K/9 rate in the minors), plays on a highly competitive team, and if he were a more noteworthy prospect, we’d likely be fine with overlooking his turbulent 1st half. Skepticism in fantasy baseball is a good thing but in the 19th round of 12-team-league drafts? Just too much upside to pass on.
Jeffrey Springs APD 253
2024: 33IP 7GS 37K 3.27 ERA 1.36 WHIP
I’m making a list of 10 names in this article. It’s nice and even. But in making it even, I stretched a little with Jeffrey Springs. A 32-year-old who’s only had one full season as a starter, only one year removed from a Tommy John return, was shut down early last year with “elbow fatigue,” and dealt away by the wise Rays? That doesn’t scream a successful recipe. Nevertheless, in the one (mostly) full year he started, the lefty was dominant (135.1IP 144K 3.27 ERA/1.07 WHIP). And his return for seven games last season went reasonably well, despite his best pitch (changeup) underperforming all expected metrics (.363 wOBA vs. .270 xwOBA, for example). Added to that, the A’s made a big commitment (for them). He’ll be the centerpiece of their rotation. It’s not an emphatic vote of confidence, but we’re still talking about very little draft capital for someone who has the potential to be a frontline fantasy pitcher.
Nick Lodolo SP Reds ADP 258
2024: 115.1IP 9-6 W-L 122K 4.76 ERA/1.20 WHIP
With three separate trips to the IL in 2024, and a stress fracture in his leg that limited him to seven starts in 2023, it’s safe to say that Nick Lodolo comes with injury risk. That’s mostly why you’re able to get the lefty within the last couple of rounds of a 12-team draft. The other reason: his meager overall numbers last season (listed above) which were heavily skewed by his last nine starts (7.54 ERA/1.39 WHIP). This was a direct result of a blister-turned-finger-sprain. When your best pitch is a curveball (42.9% whiff rate), it’s “like a surgeon with a dulled scalpel” (Mark Sheldon, MLB.com beat reporter). Pre-blister, the 26-year-old looked exactly like the ace the Reds were hoping for, when in 12 starts he slashed: 2.96 ERA/1.07 WHIP/8 Wins/9.4 K/9. Bottom line: we’re talking top-15 SP potential. Take the upside late. Make sure you have an extra IL slot.
Reese Olson SP Tigers ADP 272
2024: 112.1IP 4-8 W-L 101K 3.53 ERA 1.18 WHIP
I know there are a lot of good pitchers out there, but I was surprised by Reese Olson’s early ADP. Last round of a 12-team draft? For a still-25-year-old coming off a solid sophomore season (see above), with two elite-level swing-and-miss pitches (slider 45% whiff rate and changeup 43%), a much-improved ground ball rate (now 86th percentile), and a home ballpark that gives him an advantage (Comerica Park ranks as 6th most pitcher-friendly according to Park Factors)? Sure, we all know his four-seemer needs to be faded (xBA .289/xSLUG .452). But with more experience, and with an organization that has a track record of developing arms, I’m confident the lefty can figure that out. Especially if it only costs me my last pick.
Jesus Luzardo SP Phillies ADP 273
2024: 66.2IP 3-6W-L 58K 5.00 ERA 1.25 WHIP
A lumbar stress reaction in June ended Jesus Luzardo’s 2024 season. It was far from the lefty’s only injury-shortened campaign. He’s only managed more than 125 innings once. But that was in 2023 when he slashed a 3.58 ERA/1.21 WHIP and struck out 208 batters over 178.2 innings. The K/9 rate (10.5) was good for 8th-best among all starters. So it was understandable that last year the 27-year-old was being drafted inside the top 100. Fast forward to this month: his ADP is almost outside standard-league drafts. That seems like an overreaction, especially considering that his new team, the Phillies, scored almost a run per game more than the Marlins (4.84 vs. 3.93) and should be competitive all season. If he’s available with your last pick, you have zero risk with plenty of upside. Seems like a no-brainer.
Kumar Rocker SP Rangers ADP 305
Career Minors: 64.2 IP 13.5 K/9 2.78 ERA 0.88 WHIP
Kumar Rocker doesn’t currently have a rotation spot with the Rangers in 2025. But with a lights-out slider (that generated a 50% whiff rate in his limited three big-league starts), and a mid-90s fastball, the potential for the 25-year-old to wow his team in Spring Training and force their hand is certainly there. He did dominate the minors last season, compiling a 1.96 ERA, a 0.79 WHIP, and an eye-popping 13.5 K/9 rate. But granted, it was only 36.2 innings because the righty was returning from Tommy John surgery. Would the Rangers rather ease their former first-round pick in slowly so that he can help them later in the season? Or with other notable pitchers coming off injuries (Tyler Mahle, Cody Bradford, and Jacob DeGrom), might they elect to start with a six-man rotation? You’ll likely know more by the time you have to draft, but as of now, the rookie is among late-round pitching targets in categories/roto leagues.
Jackson Jobe SP Tigers ADP 313
2024 (minors, 3 different levels): 91.2IP 21GS 96K 2.36 ERA 1.12 WHIP
Unlike his teammate, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe is not guaranteed a spot in the Tigers rotation heading into Spring Training. Jobe, however, is the No.1 pitching prospect according to MLB.com and ranks 14th overall on Fangraphs. That’s after breezing through three minor-league levels last season. Most of his time was spent in double-A, where his line looked like this: 73.2 IP/1.95 ERA/1.09 WHIP/9.9 K/9. Most importantly, the 22-year-old made his big-league debut as a reliever during a playoff race, and then even appeared twice in October. Lukewarm results aside, the experience puts him in a great position to make some offseason adjustments. His President of Baseball Operations, Scott Harris, said as much recently in an interview: “When he shows up, you’ll see some new things.” Depending on what those things are, his early ADP could change quickly. If you have an early draft, especially, this is a great chance to buy low.
Clay Holmes RP Mets ADP 335
2024: 63IP 30SV 68K 3.14 ERA 1.30 WHIP
Within the last couple of years, we’ve seen high-profile examples of relievers successfully converting to starters. I’m thinking specifically about Seth Lugo, Michael King, and Reynaldo Lopez. The Mets signed free agent high-leverage reliever Clay Holmes this offseason with just that in mind. The important questions are, will the 31-year-old’s three-pitch pix mix (sinker, slider, sweeper) provide enough variety to fool hitters multiple times through the lineup? And, will the velocity come down too much? We’ll just have to wait and see on the latter. But as far as the former, Holmes worked on a four-seem fastball to lefties in the playoffs, and though he didn’t use it, he’s “been tinkering” with a changeup. Added to that, he’ll have his pitching coach, Desi Druschel, who will also be making the move from The Bronx to Queens as an assistant. All told, at this ADP, I don’t really see the downside to seeing how this plays out.
Nick Martinez SP Reds ADP 398
2024: 142.1IP 10-7 W-L 116K 3.10 ERA 1.03 WHIP
Am I allowed to get excited about a 34-year-old journeyman who has a career 4.09 ERA/1.32 WHIP, who will play his home games in Great American Ballpark (3rd worst for pitchers according to Park Factors), has a low K rate (20.4%), and before last year hadn’t made more than 10 starts since 2017? It’s my article, so why not? The truth is, Nick Martinez has become proficient at limiting hard contact over the last two years. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are elite (94th and 96th percentile, respectively in 2024). And just last year the righty had the 2nd-best overall walk rate among qualified starters. Assuming he keeps those gains, and his diverse six-pitch arsenal – led by a devastating changeup (.184 xBA/.243xSLUG/41.6 whiff rate) – the home ballpark shouldn’t matter too much. And he’d be a great late-round pitcher at the end of even a deep-league draft.
Which late-round pitchers do you have your eyes on? Drop some names in the comments below. For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
