Spring Training isn’t quite here yet, but sleepers season is officially underway! Sleepers, of course, are players typically available at or near the end of your draft who have lots of upside potential. Or put another way, they have the ability to return the results of players more commonly found at the beginning of the draft. That could sure put your roster over the top and set you up well for a long season. Today I’m focusing on third-base sleepers. All three players I’m highlighting are available at different parts of the end of the draft. And of course, if things go just right for them, they could return early-round value.
Before getting to the list, I also wanted to note that Matt Shaw, the 41st overall prospect according to Fangraphs, would be my fourth choice. He has 20/20 potential this season and currently, the third-base job is his to win in camp. The thing is, though, if he does impress over the next few weeks, I don’t expect his ADP (currently 211) to remain outside the top 150 by the time most people draft. That would kind of mean he’s not in the sleeper range. And that people would very much be aware of his potential. But if your draft is coming up real soon, definitely do keep him in mind.
Final note: ADPs are based on NFBC’s 30-day average.
Third-Base Sleepers to Target
Isaac Paredes 3B Astros ADP 193
2024: 153 G 64 R 19 HR 80 RBI 1 SB .238 AVG
The word might be out on Isaac Paredes. Since his off-season trade to the Astros in December, the 25-year-old’s ADP has jumped 70 spots. Nevertheless, I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t mention him. Even at the current ADP, he still makes for a sneaky 17th-round pick.
The reason for his rise is fairly straightforward. Even a casual glance at his spray chart shows a great propensity for pulling the ball. 50.4% of his fly balls in play were to his pull side in left field (average is 37.2%). It makes sense, then, why the righty slashed a very meager .223/.325/.307 with just three home runs over 52 games following a deadline trade to the Cubs. Wrigley Field was just about the worst-suited venue for his swing. The left-field corner is a staggering 355 feet from home plate. Which turns so many of his fly balls into easy outs.
Minute Maid Park, home of the Astros, is the complete opposite. Its “Crawford boxes” are mere feet down the left-field line. If you look at Statcast’s expected-home runs metric, it correspondingly predicts that Paredes would have complied 26 home runs if all his balls in play occurred there. Which is the most of any other stadium.
Added to that, the third baseman projects to hit second in the lineup (according to Fangraphs). That’s in between Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez. His knack for getting on base (11.9% walk rate ranks 93rd percentile), in addition to the short porch, should translate into lots of counting stats. And the plate discipline (ranked 81st percentile in K rate) makes this a nice points-league play too.
Bottom line: in a draft that has Mark Vientos (ADP 87) and Jake Burger (ADP 111) – players with big K rates that lower their floor outcomes – going at least seven rounds earlier, I’m at least tempted to wait on Paredes. Assuming I can’t get an elite 3B in the early rounds. Consider it a nice fallback option, anyway.
Christopher Morel 2B/3B/OF Rays ADP 262
2024: 152 G 56 R 21 HR 60 RBI 8 SB .196 AVG
The same deadline trade that sent Isaac Paredes to the Cubs coincidentally sent Christopher Morel to the Rays. The latter, much like the former, didn’t have very good results. His slashline was .191/.258/.289 with just three home runs in 49 games. Unlike Paredes, though, the case for optimism is a little more complicated. That’s at least one reason why the 25-year-old is much cheaper in drafts. The sleeper appeal is based on three less tangible things.
Thing one: the righty has some amazing raw tools. For starters, his plate discipline (10.0% walk rate) and barrel rate (69th percentile) were very good last season. But it’s his bat speed in particular that really stands out (elite at the 95th percentile). And it’s not entirely theoretical power either. We’ve seen stretches of sustained mashing, most notably at the start of his 2023 season. That’s when he slashed .285/.331/.620 with 15 home runs over 43 games.
Thing two: the Rays are notorious for their competence at judging talent. Specifically, they tend to get decent power production from their high-bat-speed/high-K-rate players. Though that didn’t work out as well for them last year (ahead of only the White Sox in runs per game), I’m thinking about Josh Lowe the season before (10th in the AL in slugging with a 24.8% k rate) and Brandon Lowe’s 39 home run season in 2021 (while striking out at a 27.2% clip). The latter still slugged .473 in 2024 but was limited to 21 home runs in 107 games due to injury.
Finally, thing three: Tropicana Field, which grades out as 27th in offense according to Park Factors, will not be where Morel will be playing his home games. It will instead be George Steinbrenner Field, which sports the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium. So yes, lefties ought to get the bigger boost. But considering Yankee Stadium is ranked third in home runs specifically for right-handed hitters, the boost should be universal. Add the exposure to Florida humidity and big spring breezes and who knows?
If it feels like I’m grasping at straws here, you’re not entirely wrong. Though the odds are admittedly not in your favor, at this point in the draft no picks are sure things. I’m not suggesting to draft Christopher Morel to be your starting 3B. Instead, his multiple-position eligibility is the perfect late-round gamble to fill anything from UTIL, CI, MI, or a fifth outfield spot. If it doesn’t look like the Rays off-season program unlocked some potential after a couple of weeks, you could easily cut bait and move on. But the upside is 30+ home run power that you can plug into your lineup every day.
Coby Mayo 3B Orioles ADP 464
2024 (minors): 93 G 65 R 25HR 73 RBI 4 SB .293 AVG
OK, I know Coby Mayo does not currently have a spot on the Orioles roster. And yes, we all saw his bitter cup of coffee with the big-league club in August and September (.098/.196/.098 with a walloping 22 strikeouts over 41 at-bats, a 47.8% K rate). It got so bad for the 23-year-old that the Orioles sent him back down to the minors despite the expanded rosters.
But the 9th overall prospect on Fangraphs (14th on MLB Pipeline) has proven he’s too good for the minors at this point. After slashing .293/.372/.592 last season and slashing .290/.410/.564 in 140 games the season before, mostly in triple-A, there’s not much else he can accomplish offensively. Is it fair to say that plenty of bat-first top prospects struggle when they get their first taste of the majors?
We’ve seen some very recent examples on Mayo’s own team. Jackson Holiday had a worse start at the beginning of last season (.059/.111/.059 with a 50.0% K rate over 10 games). Colton Cowser fared little better in his 26 games in 2023 (.115/.286/.148). And Jordan Westburg in that same year had a decent line (.260/.311/.404), but had a complete power outage (three home runs in 68 games). In each case, the talent started to win out, and, more importantly, the Orioles were able to find playing time in a crowded situation.
I expect that to happen in this case. In addition to only the milquetoast bats of Ryan O’Hearn and Ryan Mountcastle standing in his way, “Coby can play third, he can play first, he can DH… his bat could explode this year, or at least take a step forward from his debut. And if that happens, we’ll be sure to get him in the lineup.” This is a direct quote from GM Mike Elias. It means that if the corner infielder doesn’t make the team out of camp, he’s still got a great shot for enough at-bats to matter over the full season. I should also add that the Orioles have moved their left-field fence in. Right-handed power should benefit big time.
So in Best Ball Leagues or Draft and Holds, it seems like a winning bet with essentially your last pick. The upside here can also suit any deep league, or leagues with a CI/UTIL spot. Even in standard leagues, I’d at least keep a close eye on the youngster during Spring Training. Values can change fast.
Who are your top third base sleepers for the 2025 season? For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
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