Not everyone develops at the same pace. That’s especially the case when it comes to pitchers as there are a lot of variables to consider. Health often comes into play, but there’s more to it than that. It takes time for pitches to develop and their command to be solidified. Pitching at the major league level simply isn’t easy. For this exercise, we are looking at five post-hype sleepers for the 2025 season. At a minimum, these players are being drafted outside the top 175 but are still young enough not to be forgotten about.
2025 Fantasy Baseball Post Hype Sleepers – Pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Last year, Brandon Pfaadt logged his first full major league season. The right-hander made 32 starts for the Diamondbacks, and he pitched to mixed results. After he posted a 5.72 ERA in 96 innings with Arizona in 2023, Pfaadt followed that up with a 4.71 ERA last year. While it was an improvement, it wasn’t enough to truly capture the attention of fantasy managers.
That is good news though as it keeps the price down for us. Ultimately, the fact that he made 32 starts and pitched 181.2 is impressive under most circumstances. However, a closer look beyond that ERA does generate a fair share of optimism.
While the ERA was less than ideal, Pfaadt’s xERA, FIP, and xFIP were all between 3.78 and 3.58. When looking to 2025, that’s certainly a good sign. We can also keep on going as Pfaadt struck out a batter per inning while only walking two per nine innings. Pfaadt’s 64.5% strand rate also has the potential for some positive regression.
There’s a solid chance that Pfaadt is a mid-round pitching option who returns positive value.
Taj Bradley, SP, Tampa Bay Rays
It really was a tale of two halves for Taj Bradley. After a 2.90 ERA over 68.1 innings in the first half, Bradley’s ERA jumped up to 5.30 in 69.2 second-half innings. Recency bias is real, and unfortunately for Bradley, it’s how he ended the season that sticks in our heads. Again, as you search for value on the mound, should we really be complaining?
Bradley has electric stuff, and that was on display last year when he struck out 10 batters per nine innings. We do have to keep an eye on the control, and therefore his WHIP though as Bradley walked about three batters per nine last year. The real issue is the problems Bradley showed with the long ball last year; 1.43 per nine innings.
Aside from the strikeout upside, Bradley’s xFIP of 3.62 also presents optimism for 2025. Bradley averaged 96.3 miles per hour with his fastball last year, and had a swinging strike rate of 12.7%. Once Bradley improves his 62.5% first-pitch strike rate and finds his groove, he could be a difference maker.
MacKenzie Gore, SP, Washington Nationals
Sometimes we pump up top prospects for so long, that we truly lose site of their upside. Instead, they just blend in, and after being part of the Juan Soto trade, the left-hander has taken a step back in relevance. I mean being combined with James Wood and CJ Abrams could do that to someone as well. However, after last year, is that really fair to MacKenzie Gore?
After making 27 starts for 136.1 innings in 2023, Gore took things up a notch last year. He pitched 166.1 innings over 32 starts while improving his output as well. The left-hander still struck out more than a batter per inning while not negatively impacting any other parts of his production.
Gore brought his ERA down from 4.42 to 3.90 while his expected metrics also followed suit in support. The most notable improvement for Gore though was ability to keep the ball in the park. He chopped his home runs allowed per nine innings virtually in half from 1.78 to 0.81. He also did this while adding an hour to his average fastball velocity bringing it up to 96.1 miles per hour. Most notably though, the barrel rate for opposing hitters decreased from 12.1% to 6.8%. At the very least, Gore’s success will hold heading into 2025.
Clarke Schmidt, SP, New York Yankees
The problem for Clarke Schmidt last year was that he was overshadowed on his own team. While Schmidt was finally healthy and had a strong season, Luis Gil was even better. But we shouldn’t sell the former first-round pick short either.
Injuries were a problem though as Schmidt only managed 85.1 innings over 16 starts. Entering the 2025 season healthy is a good sign for Schmidt though. He stuck out more than a batter per inning last year and consistency rang supreme. Schmidt didn’t have a start in which he allowed more than three earned runs while pitching to a 2.85 ERA. Yes, his 3.78 xERA does give us some pause, but based on the draft capital required, there’s room for upside.
One nugget that sticks out, is the trouble that opposing hitters had in squaring up Schmidt. They had a barrel rate of just 5.9% against Schmidt which bodes well for his success. A Stuff+ rating of 116 is another good sign as the right-hander is still learning how to pitch at the major league level.
Nick Lodolo, SP, Cincinnati Reds
While there’s some risk in this grouping of pitchers, we are also talking about ADPs of around 200 to 250. This is the ideal spot to take a chance on young, talented, pitchers with upside. Doing so allows you to focus on offense earlier in drafts with some perhaps, more risk-adverse picks.
Another former first-round pick, Lodolo has struggled. While finding consistency at the big league level hasn’t been easy, staying healthy has been the real problem. Last year though, Lodolo did reach career highs with both 21 starts and 115.1 innings. A 4.76 ERA only adds to the frustration fantasy managers have been seeing with the left-hander, but a closer look paints a better picture.
With a 68.2% strand rate part of the issue, Lodolo’s 3.72 xERA was more indicative of his actual performance and success. Earlier in his career Lodolo had prolific strikeout numbers, but last year, he sat at just 9.52 per nine innings. He was still over the magical mark of a batter per inning, but knowing that upside is present certainly helps.
Now, we just need Lodolo to stay healthy and continue to combine the talent with the results.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
