.We are approaching the most exciting time in golf with the Masters just a week away but before we get there, the PGA Tour remains in Texas for one more week with the Valero Texas Open. The one plus for this event since it was moved in front of the Masters back in 2022 is stronger fields with the opportunity to either tune up for the first major of the season or one final shot to qualify. This year’s field includes two of the Top 10 and eight of the Top 25 golfers in the Official World Golf Rankings.
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Course: TPC San Antonio(Oaks Course)
The Oaks Course is a Par 72 and at 7,438 yards on the scorecard, is Top 10 in length on the PGA Tour. From a scoring standpoint, it does rank Top 15 in scoring average but the winner has reached -15 or better in five of the last six years so barring some crazy winds, we should see a lot of birdies.
It is a tree-lined course which does make accuracy and placement important but with some of the least penal rough on tour(2.25″ on average), players can still let it rip without too much concern. Combine those two factors and both driving distance and good drive % become very relevant in my model this week. Even with all that said, however, the Oaks Course has one of the lowest average GIR rates on tour so a solid week with the irons can help a player rise up the leaderboard pretty quickly.
Key Stats:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Driving Distance
- Good Drive %
- Strokes Gained: Putting
Top 10 in my overall model for this week:
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Keegan Bradley
- Akshay Bhatia
- Corey Conners
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Denny McCarthy
- Si Woo Kim
- Keith Mitchell
- Bud Cauley
- Jordan Spieth
Best Bets: Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners Outright (+1600)
Conners is going to be a popular pick this week in betting and DFS as he checks all the boxes. It starts with some terrific course history as he returns to the Oaks Course with two wins(2023/2020), has finished 35th or better in all six trips, and is second to only Jordan Spieth in career Strokes Gained: Total here. Then comes the form as he enters the week with three straight Top 10 finishes while gaining 7+ strokes tee to green in each event, while also gaining strokes on the green in each, as well. He is one of the best ball strikers on tour, and when the putter is on like it currently is, he always seems to find himself near the top of the leaderboard. Combine the form, course history, and stats profile and Conners is my top outright bet of the week.
Denny McCarthy Outright (+2800) / Top 10 (+260)
He is still in search of his first PGA Tour win, but McCarthy is most definitely trending in the right direction. He comes into the Valero Texas Open having made the cut in 12 straight events dating back to the Wyndham last August and better yet, he has Top 20 finishes in four of his last five events. He hasn’t been the strongest off the tee(84th in total driving/82nd in SG: off the tee) but makes up for it with a terrific iron game(10th in SG: approach) and is an elite putter(12th in SG: putting). He came close last year with a runner-up finish and has made the cut in four of five trips with four Top 20s. My favourite bet with Denny is the Top 10, but I will also be sprinkling some on the outright.
Rico Hoey Top 10 (+500) / Top 20 (+260)
Hoey is a player who pops in my model this week ranking 1st in strokes gained tee to green in this field over the last 24 rounds. He has been very accurate off the tee(11th in fairways gained), strong with his irons(18th in SG: APP), which has led to a ton of birdie opportunities(7th in Opp Gained). His only real weak spot has been the putter(144th in SG: P), but is coming off a terrific effort in Houston, where he gained 2.4 strokes on the green. If he can somehow carry that over, he could match or best his T14 here last year. I like both the Top 10 and Top 20 markets for Hoey this week.
