Pitching isn’t easy. The first month of the season is always going to be difficult as pitch counts are still being built up. Not only are pitchers still finding their groove, but the weather is an issue, and opposing offenses are still making themselves known. Seeing results on the field is one thing, but finding supporting data to back up the success takes things to the next level. Let’s dig into the advanced pitching stats of three pitchers whose FIPs have caught my attention to begin the season.
Fantasy Baseball Advanced Pitching Stats
Hunter Greene is an Ace
We knew this was coming. It’s not like Hunter Greene is without pedigree, but this is a long time coming after he was the second overall pick in 2017. After making a career high 26 starts and 150.1 innings last year, Greene entered 2025 ready to take the next step. And through his first three starts of the season, Greene appears to be doing just that.
The flashy number that’s bound to get everyone’s attention is 99.4. After averaging 97.8 miles per hour on his fastball last year, the hard-throwing right-hander has taken things up a few notches in 2025. From a strikeout perspective, Greene is still at 10 per nine innings. On an overall basis though, Greene is dominating the opposition.
Greene has reduced his walks per nine innings from 3.41 to 1.31 which speaks to his 1.31 ERA on the season. He’s also keeping the ball in the park with just 0.44 home runs per nine innings, which makes his 1.91 FIP quite believable. The max exit velocity against Greene so far this year is just 105.3 miles per hour. His early-season production and overall upside are the perfect example of the benefits of waiting on pitching. If there’s any proof needed of Greene’s improvement, it’s his 129 Stuff+ (29% above average).
Blanks for Spencer Schwellenbach
The last two seasons have been a whirlwind of success for Spencer Schwellenbach. He started in A-Ball and made it up to Double-A in 2024 before being promoted to the big leagues. At that point, Schwellenbach had a 3.35 ERA in 21 starts while striking out a batter per inning.
As we went through draft season in 2025, the right-hander’s stock continued to rise. Based on that success, it was well warranted for Schwellenbach to be a hot commodity. This year, it’s hard for Schwellenbach to have gotten off to a better start. In 14 innings over two starts, the right-hander has yet to allow an earned run. Even better, his 1.50 FIP backs up the early season success.
Schwellenbach is striking out a batter per inning with just 0.64 walks per nine innings to go along with a 60% groundball rate. Opposing hitters have yet to barrel up a ball against the right-hander. That also helps to back up his ongoing success. He’s simply the latest in Atlanta’s stable of young pitchers.
Jesus Luzardo is Healthy
After making just 12 starts last year, 66.2 innings, it’s clear that Jesus Luzardo is healthy. Well at least to this point in the season he is. During draft season, there was some doubt surrounding how much we could trust the left-hander. In trading for Luzardo this off-season, it was clear how the Phillies felt. And to this point, that faith has been rewarded.
Before we get into any statistics, the first item of note is the 96.7 mile per hour average fastball velocity for Luzardo. That’s in line with his career norms, so the velocity being back is critical. It shouldn’t be surprising then that the left-hander has 19 strikeouts on the season.
Granted it’s just 12 innings, but Luzardo does have a career-high 47.8% ground ball rate. Between that and the strikeouts, Luzardo’s 1.50 ERA is backed up by a 1.99 FIP. We have to fight the urge to chase wins in fantasy baseball, but the southpaw has been victorious in both of his starts. Between his success, Philadelphia’s offense, and a strong bullpen, that shouldn’t be a surprise.
