Graham Ashcraft, who was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in 2019, has never been a household name. But that might soon change. Ashcraft has been outstanding after converting to a full-time role in the Reds’ bullpen this year, and his underlying metrics suggest that he’ll continue to be a boon for fantasy managers who are smart (or lucky) enough to have him in their fantasy bullpens. Here are five reasons to pick up Ashcraft, who is only rostered in 24% of leagues, right now.
Five Reasons Graham Ashcraft is About to Break Out
Reason #1: His elite slider/cutter combination
Ashcraft has not one, but two elite pitches this season. The Reds right-hander’s slider has always been excellent, but this year it ranks 6th in MLB with a 132 Stuff+ (per Fangraphs). The reason it’s so good? According to Baseball Savant, Ashcraft gets 5.6 more inches of horizontal break on it than the average slider and 3 more inches of depth. When that filthy movement is paired with velocity – Ashcraft’s slider averages over 90 MPH – it’s a recipe for disaster for opposing hitters. Batters are hitting just .071 against the offering, and have a whiff rate of 40%.
Most pitchers can find strikeouts with one elite pitch. Ashcraft, however, has two. After throwing a below-average cutter last year according to Stuff+, it’s up to 113 by the same metric this year.
Reason #2: Refined arsenal
Not only has Ashcraft significantly improved both his wipeout offerings, but he’s thrown them more often. In fact, they’re all he throws. After mixing in a sinker and changeup 20% of the time last season to subpar results, the Reds’ right-hander ditched both as a reliever. It’s worked for him; Ashcraft has a 100th percentile chase rate at 43.2%. Racking up strikeouts – he has 23 in 20 innings – helps Ashcraft post excellent fantasy numbers out of the bullpen while also picking up an extra inning or two here and there.
Reason #3: He induces lots of ground balls
Ground balls are a pitcher’s best friend. It should be no surprise, given his cutter and slider both have above-average drop, that Ashcraft coaxes a lot of ground balls from hitters. In fact, his ground ball rate of 64.2% ranks in the 97th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Pitchers who keep the ball on the ground also tend to limit home runs, which Ashcraft has done extremely well this year. His ability to do so means he has a high ERA floor and makes him a more secure and consistent option than high-upside relievers who have fly-ball tendencies.
Reason #4: Ashcraft limits hard contact
Another way to limit home runs? Don’t let the batter hit the ball hard. Almost no one in baseball has done this more effectively than Ashcraft this season; batters have an 83.2 MPH average exit velocity against the right-hander, which is one of the lowest marks in the majors against any pitcher. And batters are struggling mightily to pull the ball in the air against the right-hander; they’ve managed to do so on just 5.7% of batted balls this year, which is another sign that Ashcraft’s ERA will likely stay low.
Reason #5: Outstanding expected stats
Ashcraft’s ability to limit hard-hit balls has helped him post elite expected statistics so far this season. He has an xERA of 2.88 and an xBA of .210, which both bode well for his future production. Those numbers are in stark contrast to his struggles last year when he had a 5.14 xERA and .278 xBA. The improvements are the result of the significant changes he’s made to his pitches and arsenal.
Graham Ashcraft has a lot of things going for him. After making the transition from starting pitcher to lethal bullpen arm, he’s turned himself into a must-have in deep league bullpens. With two wipeout offerings, plenty of ground balls, a low ERA, and high strikeout totals, he’s a clear breakout candidate to watch the rest of this season.
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