We are right in the middle of Major Championship season as the top players in the world head to the Quail Hollow Club for the 2025 PGA Championship. One of the best fields we have seen in a long time includes 49 of the Top 50 golfers in the DataGolf World Rankings. Unlike other PGA Championship venues on the rotation where there are some unknowns, there will be some familiarity this time around as the Quail Hollow Club is a part of the PGA Tour schedule at the Wells Fargo Championship. The 2017 PGA Championship was also played here when Justin Thomas took home the hardware with a winning score of 8-under par. We will likely see another winner in the single digits under par with most of the field shooting over par. Buckle up for a entertaining week of golf!
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Course:
While the Quail Hollow Club is a regular PGA Tour stop, it will play a bit differently and should play a lot tougher with a major championship setup. It is a Par 71 stretched out to 7,626 yards on the official scorecard and will challenge golfers in every way. It starts with the Par 3’s, where three of four are over 200 yards. The Par 4’s will be very difficult this week with eight of 11 over 450 yards and five of those over 480 yards. The first thing I am looking at from a stats model perspective is driving distance, with the length of the course, as bombers will have an advantage, leading to shorter iron approach shots. Distance won’t be everything, however, as finding the fairway or at least not missing by a lot will help avoid long, challenging approaches from the rough. Long iron play will also be very important and is elevated in my model this week. If you are targeting a golfer who doesn’t have elite distance off the tee, make sure they have been on point with the long irons. Another key this week, as with almost every major, will be scrambling and short game, as there will be a lot of missed greens in regulation, putting a ton of emphasis on getting up and down to save par and keep the score from spiralling out of control. Overall, this course and its major championship setup will challenge every facet of a golfer’s game.
Key Stats:
- Driving Distance
- Total Driving
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Proximity from 200+ Yards
- Strokes Gained: Around the Green
- Quail Hollow History
- Current Form
With all that said, here are the Top 10 in my overall model for this week:
- Rory McIlroy
- Justin Thomas
- Collin Morikawa
- Scottie Scheffler
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Patrick Cantlay
- Shane Lowry
- Jordan Spieth
- Xander Schauffele
- Sepp Straka
Best Bets: Tourney Name
Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy top the odds board this week at +500, and if you are confident enough to bet that low of a number, this is a week where it might be worth it. I prefer to bet them head to head like I have done in the past, and currently leaning Rory for a few reasons, starting with form. While Scottie is coming off a win at the CJ Cup, it was in a bit weaker field, while Rory comes in with three wins on the season, including the Masters and Players Championship. Rory also returns to Quail Hollow with four wins at the Wells Fargo Championship and seven Top 10s in his last 10 trips.
Let’s dig into the rest of the odds board and see if we can find some value.
Xander Schauffele Outright (+2200)
With Bryson DeChambeau joining Rory and Scottie in the single-digit odds, the rest of the board gets pushed down some, with no golfers in the teens. My favorite bet outside of those top 3 is Xander, who checks a lot of boxes this week. He not only took down the PGA Championship in 2024, but he is coming off back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Wells Fargo Championship played here at Quail Hollow. His 2025 season started off slow, but he has started to heat up with four straight finishes inside the Top 20, including an 8th-place finish at the Masters and a T11 at last week’s signature event, the Truist Championship. He is the only player in the field to rank Top 20 in both driving distance and SG: Approach while also ranking Top 13 in Proximity from 200+ yards and from 175-200 yards. Put it all together, and he is Top 10 in my overall model and my favorite outright bet of the week.
Justin Thomas Outright (+2200)
Right up there with Xander at +2200, JT also checks a ton of boxes this week and will be a popular bet at this number. He is coming in scorching hot, finishing 2nd or better in three of his last four events, including a win at the RBC Heritage. He won the last PGA Championship played here at Quail Hollow in 2017, and he also won the PGA Championship at Southern Hills in 2022. In seven trips to the Quail Hollow Club, he has only finished outside of 26th once, missing the cut in 2016, the year before his major win here. He also nails the stats model ranking 27th in driving distance, 10th in SG: Approach, 26th in SG: Around the Green, and 32nd in Proximity from 200+yards. I love this second tier for betting this week, and my card will be starting with JT and Xander this week.
Sepp Straka Outright (+6000) Top 10 (+400) / Top 20 (+210)Â
While I do think the winner comes from one of the top players on tour, Straka is very close to entering that tier for me with his play in 2025. He is coming off his second win of the season, and a big one at that, winning a signature event with an elite field. Outside of the wins, he has also been very consistent as making 11 of 13 cuts overall and not finishing worse than 30th in any of those. His PGA Championship history doesn’t pop off the page, but he did pick up a Top 10 in 2023. The same can be said for his Quail Hollow history, but the good news is that he is coming off a Top 10 in last year’s Wells Fargo Championship. He is slightly below average in distance off the tee, but counters that with his long iron play, where he is among the elites on the PGA Tour. My favourite bets are the props with the Top 10 and Top 20, but I will also make sure to sprinkle some on the outright, and good on you if you got on his number prior to last week’s win.
