Many of the last decade’s best hitters have come through the Atlanta Braves organization. Ronald Acuna, Jr. is a four-time All-Star, NL MVP, and Rookie of the Year. Matt Olson has been one of the best hitters in the Major Leagues since his days in Oakland. Freddie Freeman was drafted, developed, and blossomed as a star in A-Town. Drake Baldwin could be the next Braves superstar.
Drafted in the third round of the 2022 draft, he’s one of the best waiver wire adds fantasy managers are going to have a chance at all season. He’s only rostered in 54% of Fantrax leagues – he was available in my 12-team league until I picked him up last night – which makes now a perfect time to snag him for the rest of the season.
Five Reasons to Pick Up Drake Baldwin
Reason #1: Outstanding 2025 Stats
Baldwin is off to an extremely hot start. With over a quarter of the season complete, his .357/.400/.583 slash line is composed of video game numbers. And even better? His .316/.361/.546 expected slash line (according to Baseball Savant) backs up those numbers. After going 2-5 with an RBI and a run scored on Sunday, Brian Snitker mentioned that the rookie catcher “is hitting. He’s going to play more. That’s just the way it goes, and he’s doing a great job.”
Baldwin has been one of the most valuable catchers in fantasy baseball on a per-plate-appearance basis, and – given his expected statistics – we can expect that to continue.
Reason #2: Baldwin Hits the Ball Very, Very Hard
Hitting the ball hard is one of the best predictors of success in the Major Leagues. Unless a player makes contact at an otherworldly rate – think Luis Arraez or Jacob Wilson – they have to hit the ball hard to do damage. The Braves backstop makes higher-quality contact than everyone in baseball, excluding those named Shohei Ohtani:
MLB Hard-Hit%, 2025 (min. 75 PA)
- Shohei Ohtani (65.9%)
- Drake Baldwin (61.4%)
- Luis Torrens (60.7%)
- Oneil Cruz (60.5%)
- Pete Alonso (59.5%)
Even on balls that aren’t classified as “hard-hit” – at least 95 MPH off the bat – he still rakes. Baldwin has a 93.5 MPH average exit velocity so far this year.
Reason #3: Bat-to-Ball Skills
The core trade-off at the center of hitting, especially since baseball started moving more towards the three true outcomes, lies between whiffing and hitting for power. The very best players, like Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, can swing hard enough to hit for power without having to sacrifice barrel control.
MLB Hard Hit Rate vs. Whiff Rate, 2025 (qualified hitters)
While many tooled-up young players struggle to keep their strikeouts under control, Baldwin has no such problems. His strikeout rate this season is just over 15%, which is well below the MLB average and very impressive for a player with such little big-league experience. That’s a huge benefit to fantasy managers, especially those in points leagues where strikeouts decrease from scoring.
The only real red flag in Baldwin’s profile as a hitter is his tendency to chase pitches. Although his uncanny ability to make contact (Baldwin is the red dot in the dot plot below) helps him maintain low strikeout rates, his lack of plate discipline limits his on-base percentage.
MLB Out of Zone Contact Rate, 2025 (min. 75 PA)
While not as big an issue for fantasy managers as batting average or home runs, drawing more walks would raise his fantasy ceiling and help him score more runs.
Reason #4: Increased Opportunity
As his manager said on Sunday night, Baldwin is forcing himself into the lineup with his production. After finding 42 plate appearances last month, Baldwin already has 32 in May. His top prospect status doesn’t hurt his chances to stay in the big leagues, either. The following excerpt is from his MLB Pipeline 2024 scouting report:
“Baldwin had shown a firm understanding of the strike zone and a willingness to see pitches in college, leaving with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. He’s continued that advanced approach so far as a pro, with a walk rate over 14 percent. That allowed him to do consistent damage, especially after making some adjustments with his mechanics at the plate with a 1.020 OPS from July 1 on. A left-handed hitter, he has plenty of raw pop to tap into, and he did so 16 times in 2023, with it showing up at the upper levels to his pull side.”
Baldwin’s Major League success in spite of a lack of walks – a key part of his skillset throughout his career – is another indicator that his excellent start is here to stay. The Missouri State product has flashed his power as well; his five home runs in 90 plate appearances puts him on pace for 25-30 long balls in a full season.
Reason #5: Secondary Pitch Dominance
Since Statcast made high-quality pitch data publicly available data in 2015, pitchers have steadily increased the proportion of secondary pitches they throw.
Said pitches are often the most difficult for young hitters to handle, but Baldwin has excelled against secondary offerings early in his career. In addition to a +4 Run Value on four-seam fastballs, the budding star has a +3 Run Value on sliders, +1 Run Value on changeups, and a +2 Run Value on the increasingly popular splitter. Handling all pitch types is often one of the final steps in the evolution of great hitters. For Baldwin, it’s just the start.
Between his bat-to-ball skills, excellent production this season, managerial confidence, and power, Braves catcher Drake Baldwin is a clear must-add in week nine of the fantasy baseball season.
Images courtesy of Baseball Savant data.
