Pitching isn’t easy. Seeing results on the field is one thing, but finding supporting data to back up the success takes things to the next level. Let’s dig into the advanced pitching stats of three pitchers whose ERAs and FIPs support that success.
Fantasy Baseball Advanced Pitching Stats
Keller is Finding His Groove
It feels like it has been a few years now that we continue to wait for Mitch Keller to put it together. Based on what we are seeing from the right-hander to begin 2025, it appears that we might be seeing that take place. To this point, his ERA is sitting at 3.66, but Keller’s 3.15 FIP represents even more upside.
In further evidence that wins are incredibly elusive from a fantasy perspective, Keller’s record sits at just 1-6. For as good as Keller has been, his fantasy potential is limited by the fact that he seems to be capped at about eight strikeouts per nine innings. Keller has gotten his walks down to 2.30 per nine innings, but more importantly, he’s keeping the ball in the park. The right-hander is allowing just 0.56 home runs per nine innings. At this point, Keller has established himself as a solid mid-rotation pitcher.
With opposing hitters generating a barrel rate of just 6.1% against Keller, that success is slated to continue.
This Veteran Has More Left
While Kevin Gausman isn’t the pitcher he once was in his prime, he’s not completely done either. Through 11 starts, Gausman has a 3.68 ERA, and his 3.34 FIP lends more confidence in that mark.
Gausman isn’t the overpowering pitcher he previously was, but he’s still over eight strikeouts per nine innings. At 94.6 miles per hour on his fastball, the right-hander hasn’t lost anything from that perspective. The biggest thing for Gausman has been bringing his walks down to just 1.64 per nine innings. That has played a large part in his success despite a ground ball rate of just 34.6%.
The right-hander is no longer going to dominate opposing hitters, but there’s a lot to like about what we are seeing this season. His first pitch strike rate is up to 72%, and that’s playing a large part in his success. Getting ahead of hitters is critical for any pitcher, and it’s enabling Gausman to attack and pitch from strength. He’s also increased his O-Swing rate to 33.3% which means he’s doing a better job of getting opposing hitters to chase balls outside of the zone.
Don’t Sleep on Kelly
I know we aren’t covering the most exciting of options this week, and Merrill Kelly is next on that list. Despite some rough starts to begin the season, Kelly has found his groove. His ERA is down to 3.52 on the season, and with a 3.27 FIP, the right-hander has become a legitimate option.
When looking for fantasy arms, it’s easy to get sidetracked by the quest for strikeouts. By no means am I suggesting they should be ignored, after all, they are a category, but sometimes it causes us to overlook other legitimate options. Kelly is striking out just over eight batters per nine innings, but he’s also posting a solid ERA, and he’s walking just over two batters per nine innings. And even though wins are hard to project, Kelly does have five of them this season.
While Kelly isn’t going to be a league winner, there’s real value in a dependable, veteran starter. For the most part, you know what you are going to get out of Kelly. It’s hard to argue with those results. It’s easy to get lost in chasing the higher upside option, but we are in the results game. Slow and steady sometimes gets you there just fine. A rotation is an exercise in diversity. Ultimately, though, we just need healthy innings.
