Week 19 Advanced Hitting Stats: Wallner Turning Season Around

Recency bias. We all fall victim to it, and it’s a known factor in the world of fantasy baseball. Like everything else, it’s important to have balance. It’s all about finding the hot hand, buying low, selling high, and maximizing your production. What better way to do that than by using advanced hitting stats? In this case, I’ll take a look at three players who can help you down the stretch through the lens of their barrel rates since July 1.

Fantasy Baseball Advanced Hitting Stats

The opportunity is there

Few teams had such extreme roster churn at the Trade Deadline as the Minnesota Twins. The good news, for those remaining, is that there’s plenty of opportunity for playing time. One player who’s poised to take advantage is Matt Wallner. The fact that Wallner is healthy after missing time at the beginning of the season also helps.

Wallner should see plenty of at-bats at the top of the order, especially against right-handed pitching over the next two months. That means the outfielder can be a strong source of power, as that’s generally a category fantasy managers are looking to improve. He’s also picked a good time to find his groove at the plate.

Since July 1, Wallner has a 17.6% barrel rate. The good news is that it’s not that far off from his 15% barrel rate on the season. Wallner also has a 47.6% hard hit rate and a 20.4-degree average launch angle. With metrics like that, it’s clear that the advanced hitting stats point towards the long ball.

In 255 plate appearances, Wallner has 15 home runs and 25 RBI, so it’s clear what he’s trying to do at the plate. Unfortunately, you just have to live through his .215 batting average. If you’re looking to take the optimistic stance, his .248 BABIP and .231 xBA both offer a little upside.

Adames is finding his groove

Even dating back to draft season, there wasn’t a ton of confidence in Willy Adames. Early in the season, the San Francisco Giants’ new addition didn’t do much to prove those thoughts wrong. However, a look at Adames now does bring us to a different conclusion.

Over the past month, Adames has a 16.9% barrel rate while hitting .298 with a .615 slugging percentage. While he’s still hitting just .232 on the season, between his performance in July and his .281 BABIP, there’s some upside to capitalize on. However, it should be noted that his .242 xBA does dial that down some. With his .408 SLG and .462 xSLG, the same logic also applies.

From an advanced hitting stat perspective, Adames has a career high 20.7 degree average launch angle along with a 13% barrel rate and 44.1% hard hit rate. As a fantasy manager, you could do worse than 17 home runs, 59 RBI, and 66 runs scored. That’s especially true if Adames is cruising towards finishing the season on a high note.

Can he go 20/20/20?

As a fantasy baseball manager, all we really care about are the first two 20s. With the other 20, which is generally not a fantasy baseball stat (or really a positive), there is some concern. While it won’t adversely impact Anthony Volpe’s fantasy value, we don’t want his propensity for making errors in the field to keep his bat out of the lineup.

Again, hitters aren’t in this space because everything is going great for them this season, but Volpe does have a 16.5% barrel rate since July 1. That has come with a price, though, as while Volpe did hit seven home runs in July with 14 RBI and 13 runs scored, he only batted .172.

With a .221 batting average, that piece of Volpe’s game (along with his defense) has left something to be desired. Volpe does have a .253 BABIP (.238 xBA) so there’s the potential for some improvement. Ultimately, it comes down to risk tolerance as Volpe’s also posting a career high 206 ISO. That comes with a 10.7% barrel rate on the season. We know that Volpe is frustrating in the field, but with 17 home runs, 14 stolen bases, and 60 RBI, the overall fantasy production continues to be solid.