Back in 2018, Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff faced off in a 54-51 thriller. This will only be their second time meeting since that incredible game, and both of their offenses can still score as well as anyone in the league. Detroit has won four games in a row, while the Chiefs are 2-3 and 3rd in the AFC West. With a chance for the Lions to continue to push for the NFC’s top seed and the Chiefs to return to a playoff position, there is a lot at stake. You know you can start Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Travis Kelce in Week 6. What about the rest of the offense in this Sunday Night Football matchup?
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Sunday Night Football Preview: Lions @ Chiefs (-2.5) O/U: 52.5
Fantasy Football Players to Watch
David Montgomery – RB, Detroit Lions
David Montgomery is one of the players who is hard to fade. It’s undeniable that Jahmyr Gibbs is the better RB in Detroit, but Montgomery continues to perform. The headache with rostering him is that he is just good enough for enough weeks to justify RB2 or FLEX consideration, but he is much more inconsistent than the average guy there. Since joining the Lions, Montgomery has been a TD machine. In 33 games with Detroit, he has ran for 29 TDs on just 465 carries (about 16 rushes per TD). In his 4 seasons, 60 games, and 915 carries with Chicago, Montgomery only scored 26 rushing TDs (about 35.2 carries per TD).
The inconsistency and decline in rushes per game can be easily explained by Gibbs’ excellence. The TD upside and positive game script can be just as easily explained by the elite Lions offense. There is an inherent risk in starting Montgomery, but it always feels like you will miss out on his inevitable TD.
Will that happen against an average Chiefs run defense? It’s hard to say. The Lions have the offense to keep up with and exceed Kansas City. However, the Lions expect to miss two starting CBs and started to fall apart defensively against the Bengals last week. This is not the week where Detroit should go up by 3+ scores early, but Montgomery still has low-end RB1 upside. If your team truly needs that extra boost, he may be the best you have at a shallow position. Just be ready for possible heartbreak.
Brashard Smith – RB, Kansas City Chiefs
Smith saw a decrease in snaps this week, but that’s ok. The 7th round rookie peaked after playing 26% of offensive snaps in Week 4, only to play a measly 9.6% in Week 5. Still, Smith made the most of his time and had 4 opportunities (rushes + targets) on 6 snaps. While his target share is only 8.97%, he has led the backfield over the past two weeks. Isiah Pacheco is close with a 7.69% target share, but Kareem Hunt is at a measly 2.56%.
Just because this backfield is in an awful split that provides little fantasy value does not mean that Smith is guaranteed to take over and become relevant in fantasy. An injury would probably benefit him the most, but his talent needs to win out to sustain a role. For now, Smith is someone to watch each and every week. If he continues to carve out a role, even if it is just as a pass-catcher, he could eventually offer value in your leagues. Stash him if you can afford it.
Isaac TeSlaa – WR, Detroit Lions
After showing off with incredible one-handed catches, TeSlaa scores his second career touchdown on a regular two-handed grab. The volume is still glaringly bad, only averaging a single target per game, but he did play about a third of offensive snaps for the first time ever. Low-volume deep threats are hard to justify starting in fantasy, even if competition isn’t good.
The Lions have a ton of offensive talent that makes it difficult for TeSlaa to emerge as a serious option just yet. Even when they are beating down opponents and continue to run up the score with wild plays, TeSlaa just doesn’t get the ball. Maybe Detroit wants to save him, and maybe he just needs a second-half breakout. He’s a flashy name who has almost always made the play when he is targeted, so there is something there. He will need to continue to prove his reliability to justify taking up a bench spot even in 14-team leagues, though.
Jameson Williams – WR, Detroit Lions
Is Jamo ok? After a career third season last year, Williams has seen a sharp decline in targets, receiving yards, and catch percentage. Part of that can be attributed to drops. Williams has a 9.5% drop percentage, but that only works out to 2 drops. It truly seems like the Lions are just using him differently, closer to his rookie year. Williams’ aDOT of 20.8 is second in the league per Pro Football Reference. While he has only played 5 games, that is the highest aDOT of his career. Last year, he finished with 11.2, and the year before, he was closer to expected at 15.8.
Even the most accurate QBs in the league can’t consistently complete deep balls at a high rate. Using Williams’ speed could help the rest of the offense by taking safety help away from the middle of the field. Fellow WR Amon-Ra St. Brown is having the highest catch percentage (85.4%) and yards per target (9.9) of his career. He’s also 5th in the league in receiving yards and on pace for nearly 1,400 receiving yards. While he helps the Lions in real life, he is just not getting it done for your fantasy football team.
Outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, there isn’t enough consistency to trust the rest of the pass catchers. Jahmyr Gibbs has almost the same amount of fantasy points from receiving work as Jameson Williams in full PPR leagues. Williams still presents an insane ceiling as he averages 20.3 yards per reception and could be due for more short-field work. The Chiefs don’t tend to allow many explosive plays, though, and their pass defense is above-average. Williams can still get lucky or straight up win against a corner or safety, but it’s unlikely he returns to form in Week 6.
Tyquan Thornton – WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Tyquan Thornton is the definition of a deep threat. While leading the league with an aDOT of 23.9 and YPR of 20.9, Thornton also averages 5 targets per game. That’s a rare mix of deep work and decent volume that you rarely find on the waiver wire. The receiving work has been fairly spread out in Kansas City to start the season since Xavier Worthy missed time and Rashee Rice serves his suspension. Worthy’s return has led to a sharp reduction in snaps for Thornton, from over 75% to under 50% over the past two weeks, though.
The Lions have not been a great matchup for slot WRs, where Thornton has been lining up more since Worthy’s return. However, Detroit has already ruled out Terrion Arnold and Avonte Maddox. Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are officially questionable. Amik Robertson is the team’s slot CB, but he may have to move to the outside to account for the mounting injuries. That’s further backed up by the signing of 32-year-old slot CB Arthur Maulet to the practice squad. Maulet is a solid veteran depth add, and he could be elevated for Sunday Night Football.
It’s impossible to know what the Lions plan to do, but they are running thin in the secondary. Thornton may not have an elite slot matchup even if an older Maulet gets significant snaps. However, there could be more opportunities than against a healthier Lions defense. This game has a high point total, and it’s unlikely the Chiefs have a positive game script for long. This is a great opportunity for Thornton to make an impression right before Rashee Rice returns. If your team is desperate heading into Sunday Night Football, Thornton is a risky FLEX that could pay off in Week 6.
Make sure to check out all of our Week 6 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!
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