Week 12 NFL DFS: Money Makers and Heart Breakers

Week 12 delivered exactly what fantasy managers have come to expect at this point in the season: weirdness, chaos, clarity, and a few performances that will shape the playoff race. As always, this column cuts through the noise and breaks down which players will make you money and which ones will break your heart.

Before we dive into the lists, here are five things we learned from Week 11 that will influence the stretch run:

5 Things We Learned From Week 12

1. Jacoby Brissett is no longer a streamer; he is a locked-in QB1.
   Another efficient outing with his trademark 2 TDs. His floor is safe, and his ceiling is higher than expected.
2. Sean Tucker has taken over the Buccaneers’ backfield.
   With Irving still out, Tucker continues to produce like a full-time starter. You can set him in your lineup as long as Bucky is out.
3. Michael Wilson is a target hog when Marvin Harrison Jr. is out.
   Eighteen targets are for elite usage. Wilson becomes a must-start any week MHJ misses.
4. Kenneth Gainwell is a legitimate fantasy factor if Jaylen Warren remains sidelined.
   The passing-game usage alone makes him valuable, and he delivered when handed the opportunity.
5. The waiver wire still matters — and Week 12 proved it.
   Tyrell Shavers, Emanuel Wilson, AJ Barner… the late-season breakout candidates are here, and ignoring them is dangerous.

With that in mind, let’s get into who made you money — and who cost you the week.

More Week 12 Fantasy Football Fun!: | Sneaky Starts | Fantasy Football Waiver Wire | Weekly Sleepers & Streamers | Starts & Sits | Skrip’s Week Winners | NFL DFS | NFL Player Props | IDP Analysis | Bold Predictions | Survivor Picks | NFL Injury Report | Dynasty Trade Targets | Weekly Rankings | Dynasty Risers and Fallers

Money Makers and Heart Breakers for Week 12 NFL DFS

Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone who might be new:

💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations

💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations

💰 Money Makers

Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are playing the Cowboys in Week 12, and the Cowboys give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. You might look back and say Hurts only passed for 152 yards against the Cowboys in Week 1. He also ran for two touchdowns in that game. In plus match-ups like this, Hurts has delivered multiple touchdowns every time. Quarterbacks average 291 total yards and 2.7 touchdowns per game against the Cowboys. Hurts so good.

$6,600 on DraftKings
$9,000 on FanDuel

Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals

This guy, I simply love this guy right now. Brissett has had two touchdowns in every game he has started this season. This Week, he goes up against a Jaguars defense that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. In the last five games, the Jaguars have mostly been shredded. Multiple touchdowns in four of those games. Brissett is that rare, super-consistent, high-floor guy who delivers 20 points weekly.

$5,300 on DraftKings
$7,300 on FanDuel

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Drake Maye is the overall QB2 in fantasy right now on the season. He has multiple touchdowns in eight of the last nine games. Last week against the Jets was the only setback there. This week, the Bengals are on the schedule. The Bengals give up the second-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Let’s see what we have here: a great quarterback against a bad defense. Oh, I know what was missing. This game is tied for the highest over/under on the main slate at 50.5 points. Yes, even Vinny in Vegas thinks we will see a shootout.

$6,900 on DraftKings
$8,400 on FanDuel

Other Quarterback DFS Picks for Week 12

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

$6,000 on DraftKings
$8,000 on FanDuel

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

$5,700 on DraftKings
$7,700 on FanDuel

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,600 on FanDuel

Running Backs

TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots

The Bengals’ defense is bad. How bad is it? Well, they give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. So the Bengals do not defend the run or the pass very well. In all eleven games this season, a running back, sometimes two, has scored double-digit fantasy points against this Bengals defense. Henderson has been smoking hot lately. He has five touchdowns over the past two games. You know, if you really want, Rhamondre Stevenson is an excellent play if he is back this week, too.

$6,700 on DraftKings
$7,500 on FanDuel

Jahmyr Gibbs

The Lions will play the Giants in Week 12. The Giants do not defend running backs well. Gibbs has over 140 total yards in each of his last two games. The matchup is right, and the player is a beast. I do not think we need to spell this one out any further for you. Gibby!

$8,300 on DraftKings
$9,100 on FanDuel

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints

I know what you are thinking. Reedy, I knew you would throw a meatball at me that is just ridiculously stupid at some point. But hear me out before calling me an idiot. The Falcons give up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ running backs. The Saints play the Falcons in Week 12. Kamara had 25 total touches and 115 total yards in his last game. He is coming off a bye week. The matchup and the volume tell me it’s a great sneaky play this week. We roll back the clock, and Alvin Kamara becomes relevant again, at least for this week.

$5,500 on DraftKings
$6,100 on FanDuel

Other Running Back DFS Picks for Week 12

Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks

$5,400 on DraftKings
$7,200 on FanDuel

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars

$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,000 on FanDuel

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles

$7,500 on DraftKings
$9,000 on FanDuel

Wide Receivers

Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears

Odunze has been taking us on a little roller coaster ride this season. One week, a great fantasy outing, the next week not so good. Some of it is a match-up. This week, he plays against a Steelers defense that gives up the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers. In the past five games, a wide receiver has had either over 100 yards or a touchdown against the Steelers in each game. We are on the way to the coaster right now. Can you feel it? Can you feel the excitement? I can.

$6,100 on DraftKings
$6,900 on FanDuel

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions

The Giants stink. They give up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. But they specifically do this on the outside. The Giants are susceptible to the deep ball. Jamo, as you see, plays the position of outside wide receiver for the Lions. Williams also has seen six or more targets in three straight games and has a touchdown in each of those games. This will be the fourth straight game he has gotten a touchdown. Play calling really does matter; the change in play calling for the Lions’ offense has helped Williams tremendously.

$5,700 on DraftKings
$7,100 on FanDuel

Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals

It feels like chasing points. Wilson had some significant volume last week. He had 18 targets, which was a 32% target share of the Cardinals’ passes. He turned that into 15 receptions and 185 yards. This week, Michael gets to play against a Jaguars defense that is good against the run but not so great against the pass. With Marvin Harrison Jr out again from his appendectomy, we get another week of Wilson. So if you want to win, plug Willy (swear to go, I know someone who calls him this) into your lineup.

$4,800 on DraftKings
$6,300 on FanDuel

Other Wide Receiver DFS Picks for Week 12

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

$7,700 on DraftKings
$8,100 on FanDuel

AJ Brown, Philadelphia Eagles

$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,900 on FanDuel

Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

$9,000 on DraftKings
$9,800 on FanDuel

Tight Ends

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots

Henry seems like a forgotten man for the Patriots lately, as the ball seems to be getting spread around the wide receivers. Well, that should change this week. The Bengals are up, and they give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Is there anything these Bengals defend well? They defend wide receivers fairly well. You can feel good about a low-cost tight end and plug Henry in this week.

$3,900 on DraftKings
$5,300 on FanDuel

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs

Kelce is coming off three straight games with double-digit fantasy points. He has surpassed ten fantasy points in five of the last six games. This week, the Colts are up. The Colts give up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. This game also has a high over/under at 50.5 points. Looks like a shootout, and Kelce is priced right for DFS. Plug him in. I will.

$5,000 on DraftKings
$6,000 on FanDuel

Other Tight End DFS Picks for Week 8

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

$6,800 on DraftKings
$8,500 on FanDuel

NOTE: If you need me to tell you to play McBride in detail, please just send me the DFS money you would lose this week.

Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans

$3,700 on DraftKings
$4,800 on FanDuel

Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears

$2,500 on DraftKings
$4,800 on FanDuel

Defense

Seattle Seahawks

Who are the Titans playing in Week 12? The Seahawks are. The Seahawks are a good real-life defense. They will easily get some sacks against the Titans this week and produce in fantasy. The only problem for me in DFS is that I’m not sure I want to pay up for the most expensive defense on the slate. The Seahawks should easily get you at least ten fantasy points in Week 12.

$4,000 on DraftKings
$5,000 on FanDuel

Los Angeles Raiders

The Raiders are playing the Browns with Shedeur Sanders at quarterback. Sanders’ stats from Week 11 were four completions on 16 attempts, 47 yards, one interception, and two sacks. This defense will be chalk in Week 12. The Bronny James of the NFL will give us stats, but they will only be good for the defense

$3,500 on DraftKings
$3,700 on FanDuel

New Orleans Saints

Do you want a sneaky play in Week 12? The Saints are that sneaky. They play a Falcons team with Kirk Cousins at quarterback and no Drake London. The Falcons may have to run the ball on each and every play. This is the low price play this week if you want to cheap out on a defense.

$2,500 on DraftKings
$3,200 on FanDuel

NOTE: I like the Browns defense a lot this week as well.

Check out all of our Week 12 Rankings: Flex Rankings | QB Rankings | RB Rankings | WR Rankings | TE Rankings

💔Heart Breakers

Quarter Backs

Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders will play the Browns in Week 12. The Browns’ defense gives up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. What we have learned about Geno this season is that he is far from matchup-proof. He is the poster boy for “match-ups matter”.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Lately, Mayfield has not been spectacular. I don’t think anyone is putting him in the MVP conversation any longer. This week, Baker is playing against a Rams defense that gives up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. The Rams’ defense is really good. Baker will not be cooking with gas in Week 12.

JJ McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

JJ McCarthy is not a very good fantasy quarterback. This week, he plays against a Packers defense that is good against the pass. If you need me to tell you not to play JJ a number for a place, you can get the help you need.

Running Backs

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

Chase Brown will have things very easy after Week 12. But this week, he is up against a Patriots defense that is THE toughest to run on in the NFL. The Patriots give up the least amount of rushing yards in the league.

Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants

The Lions’ defense is not bad at all. As a matter of fact, the Lions give up the second fewest fantasy points to running backs. Tyrone Tracy is the Giants’ running back. Are you picking up what I am putting down? That is right, Tracy is not a good play in Week 12.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Running Backs

Is Bucky Irving back this week? Will Sean Tucker get all the carries? The answer is…It doesn’t matter. Shut your mouth and know your role. The Rams are stopping whichever running back is starting for the Buccaneers.

Wide Receivers

Jauan Jennings, San Francisco 49ers

Jennings is healthy again, Brock Purdy is back under center, and all is right in the world of the Niners. Not this week, my friend, not this week. Because this week this the Niners play the Panthers. The Panthers are the fourth-toughest defense on wide receivers.

Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers

People were going crazy on the waiver wire in what I thought was a ho-hum waiver wire week to add Christian Watkins. Boy, are they going to be disappointed in Week 12. The Vikings’ defense is pretty good against the pass. You can look for the Packers to run against a run funnel defense. That is correct, feel free to play whichever Packers running back is healthy this week.

Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts

This game between the Colts and the Chiefs is tied for the highest over-under on the Main Slate. You would think that would mean Pittman would be great, but the Chiefs are tough on wide receivers. The Chiefs give up the seventh fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Set your expectations appropriately.

Tight Ends

Harold Fannin, Cleveland Browns

Believe it or not, the Raiders tend to defend tight ends well. You see the Raiders give up the fifth fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Top that off with Monsieur Sanders at quarterback, and you have a volatile pairing at best. I am really disappointed in just how bad Shedeur Sanders looked throwing the ball in Week 11.

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints

Juwan Johnson is probably a decent play. He should have some volume, as he appears to be the second option in the passing attack for the Saints. The problem here is that the Falcons give up the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends. They defend the position well. I am playing Juwan in season-long but all-out avoiding in DFS.

Make sure to check out all of our Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings and Analysis!