Now, that was an exciting start to the NFL Postseason. Wild Card weekend certainly delivered, and the good news is that things get even better. We have two games on Saturday, followed by two strong games on Sunday. All four matchups are extremely intriguing.
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Last week, we didn’t get off to the best start in this space by going 1-2. Puka Nacua did what we’ve come to expect from him, but that was the extent of our success. Not only did Josh Allen get the carries we needed, but he scored two touchdowns. The problem, though, is that he only averaged three yards a carry. Josh Jacobs also struggled in a favorable matchup as he averaged just 2.9 yards per carry while gaining 55 yards.
While we aren’t looking to make excuses, the process was logical and directionally things went as expected. Well, other than two of our prop plays finding success. The good news, though, is that we get another chance this week.
Let’s dig into our Divisional Weekend NFL Prop Plays on DraftKings.
Divisional Weekend NFL Prop Plays (DraftKings)
Josh Allen Over 8.5 Rushes (-104)
Yes, despite the loss, we are going back to Josh Allen on the ground again this week. However, we are taking a different approach while applying the same logic and thought process.
We’ve already established the fact that, come postseason, the emphasis on Allen the ball carrier is heightened. It’s one of Allen’s calling cards, and he’s quite good at it. When it comes to playoff time, the intensity is heightened. It’s only logical that Allen carries the ball more, and it becomes a bigger focus of Buffalo’s game plan.
Allen has hit his prop play in four of his last five games. In the fifth game of that stretch, along with the two games prior, Allen carried the ball eight times.
Facing the Denver Broncos and their tough defense won’t be easy this week. Buffalo will have to dig deep into their bag of tricks, and the expectation is that it will involve Allen as a ball carrier.
Bo Nix Under 213.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Talk about strength against strength. Bo Nix averaged 231 passing yards per game this season, but in their first game of the postseason, they couldn’t have a worse matchup. Nix faces a Buffalo team that is first in the NFL with just 156.9 passing yards allowed per game.
If we look at Nix’s body of work on the season, he’s finished under his prop play in nine of 17 weeks. That also includes his last two games of the regular season.
When these faced each other in the postseason last year, the Broncos managed just seven points. While Nix isn’t the same quarterback he was then, he’s still going to come up short in this matchup.
Jake Tonges Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Unfortunately, George Kittle tore his Achilles tendon last week and is sidelined for the rest of the postseason. It’s been a less than ideal season for Kittle as he’s spent multiple weeks this regular season on the sidelines.
When that took place, Jake Tonges stepped up and filled the void. While he’s obviously not Kittle, we also shouldn’t sell Tonges short. Earlier in the season, when Kittle was sidelined, Tonges had a three-game stretch in which he gained 41 yards, followed by consecutive games of 58 yards each. In Week 17, Tonges then had 60 receiving yards with Kittle out of action.
Based on that production, Tonges has a reasonable prop play for this week that we’re looking to target.
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