2026 Fantasy Baseball: ADP Shortstop Busts

The word “bust” can feel harsh, especially at a premium position like shortstop, but in fantasy baseball, it’s all about cost versus return. A player doesn’t need to be bad to bust — they just need to fall short of what their ADP demands. When you’re drafting a shortstop inside the first few rounds, you’re not just betting on talent — you’re betting on health, volume, lineup context, and peak efficiency. In this article, I will look at three potential shortstop busts that are being drafted near their ceiling with little to no room for error.

Your first step… Well, okay, your second step, right after reading this article, is to head over and devour our updated Top 500 Dynasty Baseball Rankings for 2026.

2026 Fantasy Baseball: ADP Shortstop Busts

Gunnar Henderson – Baltimore Orioles (ADP – 14)

After putting up MVP-type numbers in his first two full seasons, Henderson went backwards in 2025. His power dropped off as he tallied just 17 home runs, setting a career low in both hard contact rate (49.2%) and barrel rate (8.5%). He did still manage to score 85 runs and steal a career-high 30 bases, which helped him get to 535 Fantrax fantasy points, which ranked 42nd overall and 8th among shortstops. While that is a very productive season in a bubble, it failed in terms of ADP as he was being drafted in the Top 10 overall and as the third shortstop off the board.

In his defense, Henderson has come out this winter and said he played through injuries almost the entire season. With that, I am not completely buying the fact that the entire decline was due to injury or that he is 100% healthy going into 2026.

Gunnar Henderson is currently being drafted as the SS3 at the start of the second round, which feels like paying for his absolute ceiling. At that price point, there’s very little value left on the table. In that same range, I’d rather draft Francisco Lindor, who offers a longer track record of consistency with three straight seasons of 31+ home runs, 107+ runs, 86+ RBI, and 29+ stolen bases, along with a stronger lineup supporting him.

I have a ton of shares of Henderson in dynasty leagues, and if he falters early, I will likely be trying to buy low. As for redraft leagues, I am mostly out on Henderson in 2026.

Zach Neto – Los Angeles Angels (ADP – 28)

On one hand, it was very positive to see Neto put together back-to-back seasons with 23 or more home runs and 26 or more stolen bases. On the other hand, his ADP of 28.0 right now requires us to trust he will take yet another step in 2026. Despite being one of just 11 players in the 25/25 club last year, he finished 74th in Fantrax points scoring and 13th at the position.

There are a lot of reasons to believe he won’t reach the next level, at least not yet. It starts with being on an Angels team where scoring has been a challenge. From a individual perspective, it was also troubling to see Neto’s K rate reach 29%, which is in the bottom 15% of the league. Combine that with a low walk rate(6%) that is in the bottom 25% of the league, and you are looking at a perennial low OBP guy.

With his power/speed combo, I am more inclined to draft him in points leagues, but I will still be looking for more consistent/safe players going later in drafts.

CJ Abrams – Washington Nationals (ADP – 56)

In terms of return on investment, Abrams has delivered in each of his first three full seasons for the Nationals. His biggest value came in 2023 when he was drafted around pick 248 and finished as a Top 50 player in Fantrax fantasy points. He has been drafted around the Top 50 the past two seasons and delivered almost exactly that return once again. He’s being drafted in nearly the same spot again in 2026, but the underlying numbers suggest that level of production is unlikely to be sustainable.

Above are his MLC Percentile Rankings(via MLB Savant) for the last two years. Not only are the 2025 numbers disappointing, with just two areas above 50%, but they almost all regressed from 2024. The most concerning for me are the xwOBA(.309), exit velo(88.7), hard hit %(39.2%), and chase rate(32.6%), which are in the bottom 35% in MLB.

If the position wasn’t so deep, I would be more inclined to draft him as a Top 10 shortstop, but with guys like Corey Seager and Bo Bichette being drafted 40 picks later, I will be passing on Abrams in 2026.