After something of a bye week for most of the top players in the world, the PGA Tour heads to the Bay Hill Club & Lodge for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational. The event itself has always been a top stop for players, and more so now as it carries the distinction of being a signature event for the third straight season. Reminder that this is one of three player-hosted signature events, which has a 36-hole cut of Top 50 and ties.
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The Course: Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
At 7,466 yards, this Par 72 is one of the longer courses on tour, but that doesn’t necessarily mean bombs away. Off the tee, players will see a healthy dose of danger whether it be water, fairway bunkers, large doglegs, thick rough, or all of the above! Because of those dangers, you will want to be somewhat accurate off the tee, which has me looking at Total Driving and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee as a whole.
The real challenge begins on approach, as golfers will face an above-average amount of long iron approaches to the heavily guarded greens. This not only puts emphasis on Strokes Gained: Approach and Proximity from 200+ yards, but it also means there will be a lot of missed greens. That has proven true over the years as Bay Hill annually ranks as one of the lowest GIR rates on tour. If you aren’t one of the top iron players of the week, you’d better have an elite short game this week. This includes getting up and down from both the thick rough and large bunkers, as well as a strong putting game on the fast Bermuda greens.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Champion
Course History
Even with difficult scoring, the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill has the third-most predictable course history on the PGA Tour behind Augusta and Riviera. Let’s dive into a few players who have had plenty of success here and also check multiple other boxes this week. Scottie Scheffler is clearly number one with two wins here and no finish worse than 15th in five trips to Bay Hill. The outright number(+300) is not something I will look to bet due to his less-than-impressive irons over the last two signature events. Let’s look at some other players who fit the profile behind the World #1.
Rory McIlroy (+960 Outright)
We were close to getting that Rory outright at the Genesis Invitational and going right back to the well this week. It starts with the elite course history as he won here in 2018, has made all 11 cuts, and has finished in the Top 15 nine times. He has also looked terrific in two starts, finishing T14 at Pebble Beach and then finishing runner-up at the Genesis while leading the field in Strokes Gained: tee to Green. He is primed to win his first event in 2026, and no better place than a course he has been excellent at throughout his career. I like the overall outright, but you can also get Rory at +820 in the “without Scottie” market.
Hideki Matsuyama (+3000 Outright / +260 Top 10)
While Deki has just one Top 10 here at Bay Hill, he has been very consistent, making the cut in 10 of 11 trips and Top 25 finishes in four of his last five. That includes a T12 and T22 while the event has played as a signature event. He is coming off a disappointing T28 at the Genesis but had Top 10’s in his previous two events and has four Top 15 finishes in five events in 2026. Both the outright and Top 10 are on my betcard this week.
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking is critical at Bay Hill, given the course’s length and demanding setup. I slightly favor distance over accuracy off the tee here, as pushing the ball farther down these fairways helps avoid a steady diet of 200+ yard approaches into firm, fast greens.
Collin Morikawa (+3100 Outright / +270 Top 10)
Morikawa enters the week sitting 4th on the PGA Tour in SG: Ball Striking, having gained strokes both off the tee and approach in all four events. He is also coming in hot with a win at Pebble Beach and a T7 at the Genesis, and is one of three players with Top 10 finishes in both signature events so far this season. After missing the cut at the API in 2023 and 2024, he rebounded big time last season with a runner-up finish. As long as he keeps putting field average or better, he should be in contention once again this week.
Adam Scott (+390 Top 10 / +154 Top 20)
It is early in the season, but it is excellent to see 45-year-old veteran Adam Scott among the leaders in ball striking. It has been one of his best stretches in years as he comes in having gained strokes both off the tee and on approach together in six straight events going back to last July. The putter has been the thing holding him back from better results lately, but the good news is that he looked much better at the Genesis, gaining 1.16 on the green, which resulted in a 4th-place finish. I don’t think he is in a position to win here, but I will have exposure in the Top 10 and Top 20 markets this week.
Strokes Gained: Short Game/Bermuda Putting
With one of the lowest GIR rates on the PGA Tour, Bay Hill means a heavy dose of scrambling over a four-day stretch. I will be looking for players who have been excellent around the green and have excelled on firm and fast Bermuda greens.
Tommy Fleetwood (+1750 Outright / +175 Top 10)
Fleetwood is going to be one of the top players in almost everyone’s model this week, thanks to a red-hot start to the season. He has only played two events, but is one of just three players to finish Top 10 at both signature events. That success comes from an excellent all-around game, starting with an elite short game. He is one of just eight players to rank Top 20 in both SG: Around the Green and SG: Putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds and leads the tour in SG: Around the Green in 2026. He is one of my top bets this week and will also get exposure to the Top 10 market as he enters with one in five straight events.
Taylor Moore (+1000 Top 10 / +385 Top 20)
With a T2 last week at the Cognizant, Moore earned his way back into a signature event for the first time since Pebble Beach last season. It was the first time since the 3M last summer that Moore gained strokes in all areas, led by an elite short game. Like Fleetwood, he is one of the eight players who rank Top 20 in both SG: Around the Green(5th) and SG: Putting on Bermuda(17th) over the last 24 rounds. My favorite bet is the Top 20, but I will also sprinkle some on the Top 10, as well.
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