Attacking the Green!: 2026 Valero Texas Open Stats Breakdown and Best Bets

This week, the PGA Tour heads to TPC San Antonio for the Valero Texas Open. With the Masters just one week away, the Valero Texas Open presents a final opportunity for one player to win their way into the field. Some of the notable players looking to do so are Rickie Fowler, Tom Kim, Will Zalatoris, Michael Thorbjornsen, Billy Horschel, and Tony Finau. That definitely helps the field strength this week as three of the Top 10 and 10 of the Top 20 players in the DataGolf World rankings.

The Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)

The Oaks Course is a standard par 72 with four par 3s, 10 par 4s, and four par 5s. At 7,438 yards, it is the 5th longest course of the 2026 season, and like Memorial Park last week, it plays just outside the Top 10 in difficulty, playing about a quarter of a shot over par on average.

The fairways are tree-lined and slightly narrower than average, which does lead to more missed fairways than average, but that doesn’t stop the field from using the driver. The biggest reason for that is the fact that the rough is not very penal. The biggest challenge comes on the approach as the greens are smaller than average, creating a sub 60% GIR rate. Players will also be putting on Poa greens once again this week.

Let’s jump in and break down the top stats and players who fit the model!

Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 Valero Texas Open Champion

Top Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Approach – Top stat for me this week with the smaller greens. Looking at all the Shotlink data from the previous five years, SG: Approach has the highest correlation to winning. Players who are above average with their irons put themselves in a favorable position to contend.
• Driving Distance/Good Drive % – With a longer course and non-penal rough, I love looking at a combination of driving distance and good drive %. For reference, good drive % is a combination of fairways hit + greens in regulation when missing the fairway.
• Strokes Gained: Short Game + Putting on Poa – With tougher scoring and a lower GIR rate this week, players will have to be on with their around-the-green play. Putting is also very correlated to success, and this week we will again look at putting success on Poa greens.

Ludvig Aberg (+1600 Outright / +335 Top 5)

At the top of the board this week, I gravitate to Aberg, who arguably comes in with the best form in the field. After a slow start to his season(WD, MC, T37), he has heated up at the right time heading into the major championship season. He finished T20 at the Genesis Invitational and followed that up with back-to-back Top 5 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and Players Championship. During those three events, he has gained strokes in all Strokes Gained categories and is 2nd in SG: Ball Striking and 7th in SG: Approach over that stretch. His putting overall is just average, but more good news as he has gained strokes on the green in four straight events.

Keith Mitchell (+3700 Outright / +325 Top 10 / +154 Top 20)

Motivation won’t be a factor this week as a win gets Mitchell into the Masters, and no better spot for him than at the TPC San Antonio. He returns with some excellent course history, having finished 26th or better in all four trips, including Top 15 finishes in each of the last two years. He is also coming off a T14 last week at the Houston Open and almost checks all the boxes from a statistical standpoint. He ranks 4th in SG: Off the Tee, 12th in Driving Distance, 24th in Good Drive %, 16th in SG: Approach, and Top 20 in both Par 4 and 5 Scoring. The putter is always the wild card, and the good news is that he has been better as of late. My favorite bet with Mitchell is the Top 20 this week, followed by the Top 10, and then I will also sprinkle some on the outright in hopes the putter gets hot.

Ryo Hisatsune (+3900 Outright / +335 Top 10 / +156 Top 20)

The buzz around Hisatsunce has worn off, but it has still been an excellent start to the season. After a missed cut at the Sony Open, he has reeled off eight straight cuts made, including three Top 10s in February, and now returns to the Valero after posting an impressive Top 5 last year. He is another player that fits the stats model rankings 12th in SG: Approach, 6th in SG: Ball Striking, 5th in Good Drive %, 19th in Bogey Avoidance, and 8th in Birdie or Better. The putter has been very up and down, but he showed the results that come when he gets hot with the flat stick, and that is my hope this week.

Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+490 Top 10 / +225 Top 20)

Rookie Sudarshan Yellamaraju is making it tough to ignore week in and week out this season. While he was inconsistent overall on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2025, making just 11 of 21 cuts, he finished the season with a win and eight Top 25 finishes. Oddly enough, he has found consistency on the PGA Tour, making seven of eight cuts to this point, and is coming off back-to-back Top 10s at the Players Championship and Houston Open. He checks every box statistically, starting with being the only player in the field to rank Top 10 in both driving distance and SG: Approach. He is also 14th in Good Drive %, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Bogey Avoidance, 3rd in Birdie or Better, and 13th in SG: Putting. I don’t think he is ready to win yet, but I love the Top 10 and Top 20 markets this week.