Welcome back, golf fans. The final major of the season is here as the Open Championship heads to Royal Birkdale Golf Club this week. This will be the 11th time Royal Birkdale has hosted the Open, going back to 1954. Jordan Spieth, with a score of -12, won by three strokes over Matt Kuchar back in 2017 when Royal Birkdale last hosted this major championship and was the only golfer to shoot all four rounds in the 60’s.
In this article, we will preview the course, look at the top stats and trends that matter in our models, and then highlight some players who stand out as top bets this week.
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The Course: Royal Birkdale Golf Club
This is the 11th trip to Royal Birkdale for the Open Championship, and looking specifically at the last two, they have played much differently. In 2017, it was Jordan Spieth winning at -12, while Padraig Harrington won the 2008 Open with a score of +3. That 15-stroke difference is largely due to the weather conditions, which can change any links-style course in the blink of an eye. As of now, the weather forecast looks fairly calm in terms of wind, which should lead to an event more comparable to 2017.
The course is a par-70 setup listed at 7,223 yards on the original scorecard. It is a fairly standard layout for a par 70 with four par 3s, 12 par 4s, and two par 5s. The par 3’s are quite different in terms of distance, with the shortest at 151 yards while the longest is listed at a lengthy 241 yards. The par 4 holes also have a big spread, with three coming in under 400 yards while five are over 450 yards, and of those five, three come in over 500 yards.
Like most links-style courses, positioning is key to avoiding danger outside the fairways, but missing in the correct spots is a large part of a player’s game plan. Overall, it will take a complete tee-to-green game to compete this week and have a shot to win. I will be weighing approach shots more than off the tee this week and will have emphasis on long iron play. With difficult bunkers around the greens and a projected GIR rate of around 65%, scrambling and around-the-green play will also be important.
Stats & Trends That Matter: Finding the 2026 Open Championship Top Bets
Scottie Scheffler (+800 Outright)
With no wins since January (crazy, right?), the number on Scheffler keeps drifting, and if you shop around, you can find a +800 on multiple books. He is coming off his first missed cut in years last week at the Scottish Open after a disastrous second round, but that may have just given him more prep time for this week. Before that missed cut, it’s not like he was playing badly, as he finished 14th or better in eight straight events, including six top-5s and four runner-ups. On top of that, he is the defending Open Champion and has finished top 10 in three of five Opens and has not finished worse than 23rd in five Open Championships. I don’t think the number gets much better going forward, and I am fully on board this week.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1850 Outright / +335 Top 5)
If not wanting to go low with Scottie or even Rory this week in the single digits, the next tier is full of options. Leading the way for me in that next tier is Matt Fitzpatrick, who is enjoying his best season on tour. He has won three times, and his last win came at the Zurich Classic in June. He comes into the Open with top 5 finishes in three of his last four events, including last week’s Scottish Open. From a statistical perspective, he is #1 in this field when looking at SG: Tee to Green over the last 20 rounds, highlighted by his red-hot iron play and elite around-the-green play.
Robert Macintrye (+3600 Outright / +600 Top 5 / +290 Top 10)
It has been an up-and-down season overall for Macintyre, but he is currently playing his best and most consistent golf of the season. He is coming off a season-high 3rd-place finish at the Scottish Open, where he gained 9.8 strokes on approach while also gaining strokes in every category. It was his second straight top 10 (Travelers Championship) and third top 15 in four events. He also has excellent Open Championship history, making the cut in all six, including three top-10 finishes. I like Macintyre as a ladder bet this week with the most exposure to the top 10 market.
Alex Fitzpatrick (+430 Top 10 / +196 Top 20)
The breakthrough for Alex came with a team win at the Zurich Classic, but he has most definitely made the most of the opportunity it gave him. Since that win in New Orleans, Fitzpatrick has tallied four top 10s and six top 25 finishes in eight events. He missed the cut last week at the Scottish Open, but I still love the fit as he ranks 10th in this field in SG: Tee to Green, 6th in SG: Approach, and finished 17th in his only Open start back in 2023.
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