How to Exploit Ballpark Factors for Fantasy Baseball Production

Knowing ballpark factors just might give you the boost you need.

Throughout the long baseball season, teams always require short-term fill-ins. Maybe a fourteen-day I/L replacement. Or even worse, the dreaded day-to-day situation. Someone always has that one player, like a Kyle Schwarber, who goes through those prolonged slumps before turning into Superman and carrying your team for a month.

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If you are in that situation, check out our waiver wire report. You can find some gems that you might keep on your roster for the rest of the year.

The other way is to see what is going on in your league. Sort available players by “change in percent rostered from the previous week”. This is a great way to find the players who are being picked up at a high rate. Keep in mind that a lot of the pitchers being added are just being streamed. They may start that day, and then you might find the next day they are among the most heavily dropped.

Using Park Factors to Identify Best Hitter Adds

Here is another way to find that one player for a short time.

First, I want a player who has gotten hot. Maybe he is one of those streaky players like Schwarber, but I am only keeping him for a short time anyway. So that is OK.

Second, if he is hot and has a ridiculous home/away split and will be mostly home for two weeks, go for it.

Third, he doesn’t have to be playing at home as long as he is in one of the few hitter-friendly ballparks.

We can use Statcast for ranking the most hitter-friendly parks. If you use a three-year rolling factor, their top five are Coors (Rockies), Chase Field (Diamondbacks), Target Field (Twins), Camden Yards (Orioles), and Great American Ball Park (Reds). This year there is another to add to the list, and that is Sutter (A’s)

Targets

Jake McCarthy (OF, Colorado Rockies) is an ideal short-term waiver target if you need a boost in batting average and stolen bases. He is swinging a hot bat over his last 15 games, slashing .350/.400/.600 with 2 home runs, 12 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. His high-contact approach, paired with his elite 99th-percentile sprint speed, gives him a very high floor for production.

The main draw right now is his upcoming park schedule. The Rockies play five games at Coors Field over the next two weeks and a four-game series at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks. Both venues heavily reward line-drive hitters and elite speed by inflating outfield gaps and overall BABIP. He is rostered in only 38% of Fantrax leagues.  Often pigeonholed as a speed-only asset, McCarthy is a plug-and-play option to ride through the next two weeks in prime hitting environments.

Jeremiah Jackson (2B, Baltimore Orioles) is quietly flashing exactly why he deserves a look on your Fantrax waiver wire before his multi-position eligibility keys a high-volume run. While his surface season line sitting around .250 with six home runs and 25 RBIs doesn’t jump off the page, his profile is spiking at the perfect time. Over his last seven games, Jackson has become a viable option by hitting .304 (7-for-23). The extreme swing-and-miss has occasionally capped his value. Recently, he has been striking out less to support a vastly improved zone-contact approach.

The major catalyst to add Jackson right now is a massive schedule advantage. After a brief set in Tampa Bay wraps up, the Orioles return home for a 10-game homestand at Camden Yards. They face the Tigers, Rays, and Blue Jays. Jackson carries a severe home/away split. He has an OPS nearly 50 percent higher at home than on the road this season. This extended stay in Baltimore is a massive setup. Jackson’s improved approach is a perfect candidate for the next two weeks. This makes him a premier, low-cost middle infield plug-and-play while his bat is hot. He is available in 51% of Fantrax leagues.

Kyle Isbel (OF, Kansas City Royals) is a great short-term target for fantasy managers looking to anchor their batting average and secure steady outfield production. He is consistently putting together multi-hit games and elevating his year-to-date batting average to a rock-solid .275. Isbel has drastically improved his barrel control and cut down on empty swings.  What used to be a volatile profile is now a dependable source of contact out of the bottom of the Royals’ order.

The main draw right now is an incoming schedule tailored perfectly to amplify his current hot streak. The Royals will play their next eight consecutive games at home in Kauffman Stadium. This is a stretch that carries a massive park-factor upgrade. For a gap-to-gap hitter like Isbel, that means fewer deep flyouts and an abundance of extra-base hits. He follows that up with a quick,  two-game trip to Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. One of the absolute most notorious hitter-friendly launchpads in the majors. If you need immediate reinforcement to patch an outfield hole or fuel a weekly matchup victory, look to Isbel’s stretch of excellent hitting environments. As only 29% of leagues roster him, he should be available to help you in the short term.