It’s tough to call any fantasy baseball players overvalued or undervalued a little less than a third of the way into the season. No team has played more than 52 games, and sample sizes are tiny compared to what we normally need to make long-term judgments on players. But we are starting to learn who they really are.
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Based on early performance, team usage, and changes to a player’s approach or mechanics, it’s already clear that some players were undervalued in fantasy baseball draft rooms while others appear to have been overvalued.
This weekly piece will look at the past seven days of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 400 rotisserie rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.
Fantasy Baseball’s Most Undervalued Players
(Stats are up to date as of May 18)
Xavier Edwards (2B/SS – MIA)
Even after posting a .283 average with 27 steals and 75 runs in 2025, Xavuer Edwards’ ADP still sat around pick 175 entering 2026 drafts, which is unusually cheap for a player with legitimate 30-steal upside and everyday playing time. He has paid that off and more already in the 2026 season and now ranks as perhaps the most overlooked hitter in the game.
Edwards is slashing .322/.406/.486 with 35 runs, six steals, and five home runs. He had three home runs in 2025. A huge reason fantasy managers overlook him is the lack of power with those three home runs in 2025, and he owns a very low ISO traditionally. If Edwards can evolve into a player who hits 15 home runs and steals 50 bases, he will be one of the most valuable assets in fantasy baseball.
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B – KCR)
Vinnie Pasquantino has carried an extremely low .220 BABIP this season despite still making quality contact at a solid rate. A BABIP that low (bottom-12 in the league) is difficult to sustain for a hitter with his profile, especially one who historically controls the strike zone well and consistently posts hard contact.
Pasquantino’s expected batting average (.227) and expected slugging rate (.377) are both noticeably better than his actual numbers, and should move up over the balance of 2026. Pasquantino still owns a 9% barrel rate in 2026, which is just slightly lower than the breakout power level he showed in 2025 when he hit 32 home runs.
Even though his surface stats have disappointed, hitters with strong barrel rates usually do not continue producing subpar slugging rates for an entire season. Pasquantino’s hard-hit data and launch-angle profile suggest more extra-base hits should come as the sample grows in the months ahead. Buy the dip.
Fantasy Baseball’s Most Overvalued Players
Austin Riley (3B – ATL)
After being finally healthy heading into 2026 after a lot of lost time the last two years, Austin Riley has struggled badly this season because the skills that once made him one of baseball’s most feared power sources at the hot corner have regressed across the board.
His strikeout rate has climbed to a career-worst level while his contact quality has dipped noticeably from his peak seasons. Riley is chasing pitches outside the zone more often and making less contact against fastballs. The result has been a sharp decline in both batting average and slugging percentage (his .376 slugging percentage is 50 points lower than any full season of his career). He also has far fewer barreled balls and fewer home runs than fantasy managers expected when drafting him as a top-tier third baseman.
Austin Riley is going to have to prove it to us before we can consider him a top-five third baseman anymore.
Jackson Merrill (OF – SDP)
Wasn’t this supposed to be the year Jackson Merrill bounced back after an injury-plagued 2025? Well, the nine stolen bases are nice, but his .202/.270/.324 slash line is borderline unusable in fantasy baseball this season. His strikeout rate is up to 26%. He only has four home runs and 19 RBI, and his groundball rate is up over 45%. Even his barrel rate has dropped from a strong 13.5% in 2025 to just 9.5% in 2026.
What has happened? Because of some poor contact and a tendency to chase outside the zone, Jackson Merrill has been dropped out of the leadoff spot in San Diego and has hit sixth in the last three games. That’s a lot of lost plate appearances for fantasy baseball, and that move should suck some of the value out of his potential to pile up counting stats.
Merrill might see some improvement when his .258 BABIP regresses to league norms, but right now his wRC+ is 30% below league average. Merrill is headed in the wrong direction after his stellar rookie season in 2024.
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