Fantasy Baseball Buy-Low Targets Who Could Win Leagues

Finding the right fantasy baseball buy-low targets is the difference between a mid-season collapse and a championship run. We are at the 30-day mark, and we are already seeing panic set in across most leagues.

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If you look at the transaction trends page on Yahoo, you will see something crazy. Fernando Tatis Jr. is the most traded player, and Ronald Acuna Jr. is also high on the list. Managers are disappointed, and I get that, but seriously? It’s true that between the two of them, they have hit only two home runs this year. It is also true that teams drafted them in the first or second round for a reason.

Both players are professional hitters, and both are in their prime at 27 and 28 years old. The underlying metrics suggest positive regression is imminent; managers who sell now are likely offloading elite production at its absolute floor.

There are a few other players who are having rough starts to the year. Some, like Paul Goldschmidt, who is hitting under .200, are probably going to improve somewhat, but won’t rebound to where they were even two years ago.

Several players, between the Juniors (players to not worry about) and the Goldschmidts (who should not be relied upon as a corner-infield anchor), present challenges for managers. It could be because they had a great rookie year and are now going through a sophomore slump. Maybe there is a new hitting coach with a fresh approach that is going to take time to adjust to.

Whatever the reason, we can look at the underlying numbers to get a read on what’s really going on. Is he swinging at strikes outside the zone? Has the bat speed slowed? Is it that he is getting older and all of those infield hits he had last year are now infield outs?

After looking at some of this year’s biggest disappointments, I have found a few that are in a strong position to have a quick turnaround.

Buy-Low Targets Who Could Win Leagues

Roman Anthony – OF – Boston Red Sox

BA: .218  SLG: .310 OPS: .669 – 1 HR, 2 SB 

All Anthony did last year was hit .292 BA and have an OPS of .859. That was good enough for him to place third in the voting for Rookie of the Year. Oh, and he signed an eight-year, $130 million contract extension.

This year, he is not living up to the player that fantasy drafts saw go in the third or fourth round.

If you look at bat speed (75.5), it is actually better than last year (75.1). He has more line drives and fewer ground balls.

There is one thing that stands out. His launch angle is higher, but the barrel rate is lower. This indicates he is getting slightly under the ball, and that would explain his one home run hit this year. Just a slight change would net an increase in production from his fly balls.

The metrics also suggest he’s ready for a turnaround because his batting average is thirty-six points below expected, his slugging percentage is seventy-six points below expected, and his xwOBA is 37 points below expected. So his fly balls are pop-ups now. His BABIP is off by over one hundred points from last year, showing us he is hitting to the defense instead of through it. Once his skill overtakes his luck, he could definitely build on the season he had last year.

Julio Rodríguez – OF – Seattle Mariners

BA: .256 SLG: .355 OPS: .686, 2 HR, 3 SB

A .250 BA isn’t awful unless you realize he was projected to hit .275, hit 20-25 HR, steal 20 bases, and have 75 runs and RBIs. This is the fourth consecutive season in which Rodriguez has gotten off to a slow start. Unfortunately, that might just be who he is at this point.

J-Rod has a career .220/.294/.332 slash line in March/April. Outside of those months, he is a career .283/.338/.494 hitter. He won the 2022 Rookie of the Year after a nearly identical slow start.

Opposing staffs have successfully avoided the middle of the plate, with only 42.1% of pitches landing in the strike zone. This has forced him to expand his zone and has prevented him from getting into favorable counts where he can “sell out” for power.

Even during the slump, however, he has maintained high-end exit velocities, including a recent 108.0 mph home run. His bat speed remains top-tier, ensuring that once his launch angle stabilizes, the power numbers will follow.

If the pattern holds, Rodriguez is about to take off.

Freddie Freeman – 1B – LA Dodgers

BA: .270 SLG: .432 OPS: .774, 3HR, 0 SB

You might think it’s odd to have Freddie Freeman on this list, but Fantrax shows him ranked as the 29th-best first baseman and the 296th-best fantasy player.

Pre-season rankings predicted he would be the seventh first baseman taken. Only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would have more hits, and no one would have more doubles. While he would never anchor your team in home runs or stolen bases, his average, runs, and RBIs would always be there.

Red flags are going off for some. He is now thirty-six years old and a couple of years past the point where most players start their decline. I don’t think this is an issue just yet. His bat speed in 2024 was 68.8 and then 68.9 in 2025. This year it’s even faster at 70.9.

His exit velocity last year was 90.9, and this year it is92.1. His hard-hit rate in 2024 was 32.4, and in 2025 it was 37.2. This year, he has a 44.3 hard hit rate. He is one of those unicorns that seem to be still getting better the older they get.

So if every measurable statistic is where it should be, or even better than it was last year, why are so many other first basemen outperforming him this year?

It’s simply luck, or the lack of it. He has a thirty-point gap between his batting average and expected batting average. The number that really jumps out is the 134-point difference in his slug and expected slug. The wOBA is fifty-six points lower than his xwOBA.

Instead of the “Hit ’em where they ain’t” hitting method Willie “Wee Willie” Keeler espoused, he is hitting them where they are.

Based on his track record and elite contact profile, Freeman remains a top-tier asset whose results will eventually align with his Hall of Fame pedigree.