Fantasy Baseball: Hitters Risers and Fallers

While surface stats can fluctuate wildly on standard good luck, underlying Statcast and plate discipline data tell us exactly which sudden offensive surges are backed by a legitimate mechanical or approach change. Here are five hitters whose stock is moving aggressively upward in standard Fantrax fantasy formats. We will also look at five players who have fallen the most in the ranks.

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Fantasy Baseball Hitting Risers and Fallers

After you get done here, you can also check out my top pitching risers and fallers.

Hitting Risers

Freddie Freeman (1B, LAD) – Finally. We knew this would happen. Freddie is back. Freeman’s standard metrics (.271 AVG, 8 HR) hide a significant surge over the past 10 days. The primary catalyst has been a definitive return to elite launch angle consistency. After spending early May hitting the ball into the dirt, Freeman’s average launch angle over the last 10 days jumped from 11.2 degrees up to 16.5 degrees. Concurrently, his Z-contact% (Zone Contact) ticked back up to a pristine 91.5%. This has sliced his strikeout rate nearly in half. Expect him to continue to show up on our risers and fallers list even more.

Sustainability: Sustainable. This is Freddie Freeman.

Current Rank:   161         Prior Rank:   249          Rostered: 100%

Brooks Lee (SS/3B, MIN) – Lee has broken out over his last seven to ten games. We have seen a massive power uptick, including two home runs over his last 23 at-bats. The underlying data reveals a complete transformation in his contact quality. Lee’s barrel rate over this brief window spiked from a pedestrian 5.2% to an elite 13.5%. There has also been a significant jump in his hard-hit rate (up to 48%). Furthermore, his O-Swing% (chase rate) dropped by 6 percentage points, showcasing dynamic plate coverage.

Sustainability: Sustainable. Lee’s pedigree as a contact hitter makes this sudden marriage of discipline and high-end barrel accuracy a definitive foundational step forward rather than a temporary blip.

Current Rank:   170         Prior Rank:   253          Rostered: 82%

Casey Schmitt (3B/DH, SFG) – Schmitt is forcing his way into standard league utility spots on the back of a scorching 10-day stretch. His seasonal line is now an impressive .289 average with 12 home runs. The secret behind his sudden rise is a radical correction in his plate discipline. Long hindered by hyper-aggressive chasing, Schmitt’s O-Swing% plummeted from a staggering 41% down to a highly respectable 31.5% over the past week. By shrinking his zone, his average exit velocity climbed by 2.4 mph on pitches inside the strike zone.

Sustainability: Hot Streak/Blip. Schmitt’s production is a mandatory ride in all fantasy formats right now. However, Schmitt’s historical profile suggests pitchers will adjust back with spin outside the zone. Enjoy the power wave, but prepare for the regression.

Current Rank:   91         Prior Rank:   167          Rostered: 87%

Ketel Marte (2B, ARI) – He was on the list last week, and he just keeps on rising. Marte’s fantasy value has vaulted back into the elite tier over the last 10 days because of a spectacular spike in pure power metrics. His hard-hit rate over this 10-day block registered at an astonishing 56.5%. His average exit velocity is now 94.2 mph. This raw power is showing up in the box score because Marte shifted his ground ball-to-fly ball ratio from 1.1 down to an incredible 0.65, resulting in extra-base damage.

Sustainability: Sustainable. Marte has a long track record of sustained elite Statcast periods.

Current Rank:   140         Prior Rank:   211          Rostered: 100%

Jarren Duran (OF, BOS) – Duran’s underlying profile over the last 10 days explains why he is anchoring standard 5×5 category league outfields despite a low batting average (.219). He has become a menace on the base paths and in the air, pairing 10 home runs with 10 stolen bases on the year. Over the last 10 days, Duran’s line-drive percentage surged to 28.5%, while his swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) fell to a tidy 7.1%.

Sustainability: Sustainable. The power might hit minor valleys, but Duran’s elite bat-to-ball skill in the zone and speed give him a bulletproof fantasy floor. This should keep him showing up on the risers and fallers list.

Current Rank:   82         Prior Rank:   145          Rostered: 99%

Hitting Fallers

Riley Greene (OF, DET) – Greene’s recent slide stems from a sudden inability to lift the ball. Over the last 10 days, his slash line sits at a hollow .182/.250/.273 with zero home runs and just two RBIs. There has been a stark shift in his batted-ball profile. His average launch angle plummeted from 14.2 degrees down to a terrible 3.1 degrees over this stretch. Consequently, his ground ball rate ballooned from 41% to 58%. Even though he maintains a solid 44% hard-hit rate, hitting the ball hard directly into the dirt does not help his fantasy value. He is such a good player; however, I expect to see him on the risers and fallers list again, just in the risers section.

Current Rank:   279         Prior Rank:   162          Rostered: 100%

Jose Caballero (2B/SS, NYY) – For a speed-dependent asset like Caballero, an OBP collapse completely tanks his usefulness. Over the past 10 days, his OBP has sunk to .210, driven by a complete breakdown in plate discipline. His chase rate (O-Swing%) spiked by 9 percentage points to 38%. This is resulting in an ugly 2:14 BB/K ratio in this window. When he offers inside the zone, his Z-Contact% dropped from 84% to 76%. Without getting on base, his elite stolen base upside is neutralized. This is causing a rapid slide down standard league rankings, where his lack of power provides no safety net.

Current Rank:   288         Prior Rank:   213          Rostered: 88%

Jorge Soler (OF, LAA) – Soler’s fantasy value is ultimately tied to the long ball, making his recent power drought a problem. He has failed to barrel a single baseball in his last 28 plate appearances, watching his season barrel rate plunge from 13.5% to a meager 4.2% over the last 10 days. His average exit velocity dropped from 92.1 mph to 87.4 mph, causing a dramatic power outage (.143 slugging percentage in this span). Pitchers are exploiting a sudden vulnerability to high fastballs, triggering a 45% pull rate that has yielded mostly harmless pop-ups and lazy flyouts to the left side.

Current Rank:   283         Prior Rank:   184          Rostered: 74%

Bryson Stott (2B, PHI) – Stott’s utility relies on high-contact volume and line-drive production, both of which have vanished over the last week and a half. His batting average over the last 10 days is a frigid .156. Statcast reveals a troubling trend. His line-drive percentage dropped from 24% to a virtually nonexistent 8%, replaced by a massive spike in weak pop-ups. Stott’s zone contact rate is usually a foundational strength. It has slipped by 7 percentage points to 81%. He is missing or mis-hitting pitches he normally drives. This has created a drain on batting average without supplying counting stats to compensate.

Current Rank:   286         Prior Rank:   206          Rostered: 83%

Daylen Lile (OF, WSH) – As a young prospect trying to establish a foothold, Lile has hit a wall over the last 10 days. His slash line is a terrible .115/.185/.115. Upper-level pitching has completely disrupted his timing, forcing a massive surge in his strikeout rate to 37%. His hard-hit percentage over this window dropped to a mere 18%. The average exit velocity fell from 88.5 mph to 83.2 mph. Lile is actively pressing, evidenced by a 6% drop in his walk rate and an aggressive, inefficient approach that suggests fantasy managers should cut bait in standard redraft formats.

Current Rank:   138         Prior Rank:   79          Rostered: 97%