Fantasy Baseball Overvalued and Undervalued – Gunnar Shooting Blanks in 2026

As we approach four and a half months completed for the fantasy baseball season, we now have a strong glimpse of who is overvalued and undervalued based on the cost to acquire their services in drafts or auctions this spring. Some fantasy baseball player performances have exceeded expectations, while others have fallen behind.

Value is an ever-changing target, of course, but we do have a snapshot in time to look at how we valued them in our drafts this spring. With about 50 games left for each team this season, it’s a good time to look at who is performing how we hoped, and who is falling behind.

This weekly piece will look at the past couple of weeks of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 400 rotisserie rankings for the 2026 fantasy baseball season.

More great Fantasy Baseball Analysis: Fantasy Baseball Waiver Wire | Weekly SP Rankings | Pitching Streamers | Two-Start Pitchers | Lineup Analysis | MLB Injury Report | Rookie Report | Advanced Stats | Under the Radar | Overvalued & Undervalued | Bullpen Report

Fantasy Baseball’s Most Undervalued Players

(Stats are up to date as of August 3)

Ceddanne Rafaela (OF – BOS)

One of my favorite fantasy baseball players that has emerged this year is 25-year-old Ceddanne Rafaela of the Red Sox. Rafaela is the kind of player who has quietly become extremely useful in fantasy leagues because he contributes across multiple categories without carrying the same name value as the stars. In 2026, he has taken a major step forward offensively, hitting .289 with 15 home runs, 57 RBI, 56 runs and 15 stolen bases, while posting an .805 OPS (not including a hit, two runs, and two RBI on Tuesday night). That is a significant improvement over his career offense, and it’s especially valuable because Rafaela provides legitimate speed and power at the same time. He has also shown plenty of extra-base ability, with now 28 doubles and three triples in addition to his 15 homers.

The combination of batting average, power, and speed makes Rafaela particularly attractive for the rest of the season. His 15 steals already represent a meaningful contribution in roto formats, and he should pass his career-high of 20 last year. His .289 average gives him a floor that many late-round fantasy players lack. He has also been scorching lately: a recent stretch included seven home runs over 12 games, and he homered four times against the Dodgers in their three-game series. The important thing for fantasy managers is that this isn’t simply a player getting by on stolen bases or average or speed. It’s everything. Rafaela is producing across the board, and at age 25, there is still room for his offensive gains to grow.

Jake McCarthy (OF – COL)

Jake McCarthy is one of the most undervalued players in fantasy baseball because his fantasy value combines what he has already produced with an extremely favorable environment moving forward. McCarthy is hitting .289/.328/.491 with 11 home runs, 64 RBI, and 17 stolen bases in 98 games, giving him an .819 OPS (plus three more hits on Tuesday night). That is a complete fantasy profile and better than his last two seasons in Arizona. He has already reached double-digit homers while maintaining a near-.300 batting average and adding 17 steals, making him +EV in all five of the traditional offensive categories.

And then there is the most important development for his rest-of-season value: McCarthy wasn’t traded at the deadline. Colorado dealt Brenton Doyle, Antonio Senzatela and Victor Vodnik but held onto McCarthy, meaning he remains in Coors Field and in the Rockies’ lineup for the last two months. That matters enormously for a hitter whose value is tied to both his batting average and speed. McCarthy has continued to receive opportunities at the top of Colorado’s lineup, and Coors Field remains one of the best environments in baseball for maximizing offense.

It has certainly helped McCarthy in his first season there. His overall offensive game, plus the fact that he stayed in Colorado rather than moving to a potentially less favorable offensive environment, makes McCarthy one of the better under-the-radar fantasy assets for the rest of 2026, and heading into 2027 depending on his next team.

Fantasy Baseball’s Most Overvalued Players

Gunnar Henderson (SS – BAL)

What in the world has happened to Gunnar Henderson this season? Despite a slight dip in 2025, Henderson entered 2026 as one of the most desired shortstops in fantasy baseball, with a consensus ADP around pick 15. The problem is that his actual 2026 production has fallen well short of that value. Through 111 games, Henderson is hitting just .219/.296/.394 with 18 home runs (admittedly more than his 17 in 2025), 47 RBI, 63 runs and eight stolen bases. That .219 batting average is particularly damaging in roto leagues, and his eight steals are WAY off the pace from last season when he finished with 30. He is not on pace to match his 2025 in RBI or runs either.

There are some reasons to believe Henderson can improve, but they don’t necessarily make him a strong bet to return his draft-day value. His Statcast numbers show a .300 wOBA and .303 xwOBA, along with an 89.4 mph average exit velocity, 44.3% hard-hit rate and 7.2% barrel rate. Those numbers suggest there has been some bad luck involved, but they also don’t point toward the elite offensive profile Henderson showed in 2023-24, either. With his current combination of low batting average, power and disappearing stolen-base production, fantasy managers are left scratching their heads. “Maybe he will be better next year at age 26” doesn’t do much good right now.

Corey Seager (SS –TEX)

Speaking of disappointing shortstops, at least Corey Seager has age and injury to explain some of his terrible production. Seager was being drafted as the No. 11 or 12 shortstop with an ADP just over pick 100 this year, but his season has been a significant disappointment. He has managed only 10 home runs and 25 RBI while hitting around .190, with his overall line at .189/.299/.375 over 234 plate appearances. Three hits on Tuesday night are encouraging, so let’s see what that does. But otherwise, that’s a terrible return for a player whose fantasy appeal has usually been around his batting average and power.

The bigger issue is that Seager’s fantasy value has always depended on him staying healthy long enough to accumulate counting stats, and that remains a major problem. He has already missed about half of the Rangers’ games in 2026, and his current production provides little reason to simply assume another hot streak will come anytime soon. Seager’s underlying track record still makes him dangerous, based on history. His 2025 profile included a 92.9 mph exit velocity, 53.6% hard-hit rate, and 15.3% barrel rate, but fantasy managers need to not dwell on the past. With his age, injury history, and awful 2026 production, Seager is now a name to avoid rather than someone you should try to buy low.