Sultan of Stat: Advanced Hitting Statistics

Surface statistics are just that; on the surface. It’s right there in the name. An RBI or a home run is self-explanatory. What goes into that production, though, is a different story. And for better or worse, that’s where we need to dig deeper.

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Can the advanced statistics back up the success we are seeing on the field? And if perhaps the surface stats are lacking, is success coming around the corner based on how the player is performing? This week, let’s take a look at Squared Up Contact. The better the ball is hit, the better result we can expect, so let’s take a look at three players who rank atop the leaderboard.

Advanced Hitting Statistics – Squared Up Contact

Ildemaro Vargas, 1B/2B, Arizona Diamondbacks

Where did this come from? At 34 years old, Ildemaro Vargas is in the midst of a career year, and to date, he can be considered one of the best waiver wire acquisitions of the season. But can we trust him? And what should we expect over the next five months?

It’s become abundantly clear that Vargas made some legitimate adjustments over the offseason. The utility player has been around the major leagues for cups of coffee of varying degrees since 2017, but this is shaping up to be a career year for Vargas.

Through 26 games, Vargas is hitting a staggering .382 with six home runs, 21 RBI, and 19 runs scored. Yes, the BABIP is .388, but Vargas’ .350 xBA helps to support the success. The Captain Obvious take is that his .657 SLG won’t sustain, but a .512 xSLG isn’t anything to sneeze at.

If you look at Vargas’ barrel and hard hit rates, while at the upper level of his career marks, they don’t exactly stand out. The same though cannot be said for his .275 average. And a large part of that is how well Vargas is making contact. At 46.9%, his squared-up contact rate ranks third in the league. That appears to be a recipe for continued success. At 70.7 miles per hour. Vargas is also generating some solid bat speed.

Xavier Edwards, 2B/SS, Miami Marlins

No one is going to confuse Xavier Edwards with being a power hitter, but he’s making strides in that department this season. The middle infielder ranks second overall with a 47.1% squared up contact rate. Edwards has also come close to doubling last year’s blast contact rate, as it sits at 11.2% this year. That tracks with his career-high barrel rate of 6.1%, compared to 0.8% last year, and his 39.1% hard hit rate.

Batting average was never an issue with Edwards, and with a .333 batting average this season, that trend is continuing. He walks (12.8%) more than he strikes out (10.1%) and has two home runs, 11 RBI, and 23 runs scored on the season. Everything about that is great, but we target Edwards for the speed. And to this point, he has only four stolen bases on the season.

I’m not saying Edwards is going to turn into a power threat, but he’s on the way to becoming a more complete player.

Liam Hicks, C, Miami Marlins

Who would expect that we’d be targeting two members of the Marlins’ offense? After showing some flashes of success in 119 games last year, Liam Hicks was already at a career high of seven home runs before going deep for the eighth time on Thursday. That comes with 29 RBI and 18 runs scored entering play on Tuesday as Hicks continues to do some real damage to the baseball.

Hicks ranks 15th with a 40.3% squared up contact rate. Most notable here is the surge in his ISO to .238. Strikeouts have never been an issue for Hicks, and this year they are down even further to 8.6%. At this point, Hicks has locked in regular playing time and he continues to be a strong source of production.