One of the best parts about fantasy baseball is watching the action unfold on the field. However, there’s more to it than just the results on the field. While our success in fantasy baseball is measured by just a few statistics, there are a great deal of data points behind them. Evaluating players and their performance is based on more than just one variable. But combined, it all comes together. Under that guise, let’s take a look at three players and how we can view them based on their early-season performances.
Fantasy Baseball Advanced Hitting Stats
What’s Going on With Soto?
We are in the results business. Ultimately, the statistics are the great equalizer. Regardless of any analysis we do, or even what we see on the field, the results trump everything else. Drafted in the first round of every fantasy draft this year, Juan Soto has been a disappointment. Quite simply, there’s no way around arriving at that conclusion. Whether you are looking at it from the perspective of the New York Mets or your fantasy team, the conclusion is going to be the same.
Soto isn’t here to walk and hit sacrifice flies. Yes, he did tie the game on Monday, but it was just his 25th RBI of the season. The outfielder is walking, 17.2%, more than he’s striking out, 16.8%, but that’s likely going to just generate grumbles from any interested observer. Your inclination here is going to be one of selling, but that might be shortsighted.
We don’t want to lose sight of what we see when watching games, but it’s also important to dig into the statistics. Soto’s .236 batting average entering action on Monday is a far cry from his .300 xBA. If Soto were at that mark, this conversation likely wouldn’t be happening. There is some concern, reasonably, that his ISO sits at just .178. Seeing a gap between Soto’s .414 SLG and .582 xSLG does lead to more optimistic thoughts.
That same optimism continues to his 14.2% barrel rate and 55.5% hard hit rate. It’s so difficult to have patience, but at this point, we still should.
The Change of Scenery Worked
It seemed like Gleyber Torres never lived up to his full expectations or ceiling, but he’s carved out a solid career to this point. The problem, though, is that he did wear out his welcome with the New York Yankees. This year, Torres got a fresh start with the Detroit Tigers, and things are looking better.
With a .276 batting average, five home runs, four stolen bases, 27 RBI, and 23 runs scored, Torres isn’t really jumping off the fantasy page. However, that production has come in 42 games, and if you chart out that pace, Torres becomes a solid accumulator. The good news, though, is that the Tigers’ lineup only seems to be improving and picking up momentum.
Torres has gotten his strikeout rate down to 10%. What’s even better, though, are his expected stats. Entering action on Monday, Torres had a .303 xBA and a .571 xSLG. When you combine that with an 11.9% barrel rate, Torres becomes a solid middle infield option.
Perez Has to be Better
When it comes to catchers, especially aging ones like Salvador Perez, it becomes a waiting game. At what point will they reach their demise and begin to fall off the cliff? At age 35, it should be now for Perez, and his stats at the moment seem to indicate that. However, we should by buying on Perez from a fantasy perspective.
Perez is batting just .226 on the season with only four home runs and 11 runs scored, but he does have 26 RBI. His .131 ISO does leave something to be desired, but his 14% barrel rate tells a different story. We can say the same about Perez’s 47.3% hard hit rate even though the results haven’t followed. Between Perez’s .296 xBA and .531 xSLG, there is reasonable cause for optimism.
