Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Wright On

I mentioned in last week’s column that we all have good weeks and bad. Much in the same way, we also do not mature and develop at the same rate. That can also be said of prospects, especially pitching prospects. But when that lightbulb finally turns on, it can be pure magic. That seems to be what is taking place in Atlanta right now with Kyle Wright.

Kyle Wright Overview

Big things were expected of Wright when the Braves selected him fifth overall in the 2017 Amateur Draft. Wright has spent his time since 2018 going back and forth between the Majors and Minors, with most of his time honing his craft in Triple-A Gwinnett. Wright struck out 404 hitters in 404.1 Minor League innings, and his strikeout rate took a bit of a dip against Big League competition. Before this season, he had struck out just 18.2 percent of Major League hitters. Meanwhile, his walk rate in each of his MLB stints sat at 14 percent or higher. Most were left to wonder if Wright would ever figure it out and reach his potential.

Well, it seems as if that day may be upon us. Kyle has certainly righted (or Wrighted, as it were) the ship in 2022. After dominating the Miami Marlins on Friday night, Wright now sports a 2-0 record, 1.06 ERA, and a massive 39.4 percent strikeout rate. Perhaps even more impressive is that he has walked just two batters through three starts.

The underlying metrics back up Wright’s breakout potential. He enters the weekend in the top five among all starters in xERA (expected ERA – first, 1.46), FIP (fielding independent pitching – second, 0.69), xFIP (expected FIP – third, 1.61), and CSW% (called strikes plus whiffs – 35.7 percent). Wright is using his entire arsenal to near perfection. He is using his four-seamer, curveball, change, and slider to keep hitters off-balance. None of the four offerings had an xBA (expected batting average) above .210 per Statcast, and that was before Friday’s dominant performance. If only he got to face an opposing pitcher at the dish every turn through the order…

So, how do we value Kyle Wright going forward? The tricky part when creating rest of season rankings for a player like Wright is that we have seen several seasons of mediocrity. Admittedly, that may be clouding my judgment a bit. I want to believe that this is a true breakout, but I am a bit hesitant about going all-in. Having said that, I did bump Wright up more than any other player besides David Robertson in this week’s edition of my rest of season rankings. And with Robertson, I was being stubborn regarding his role and have since acquiesced.

Wright now sits inside the top-300 in my latest rankings. And to be honest, I still may not be high enough. This feels like more than a simple hot streak. It seems as if the once highly-touted prospect is finally putting it all together. There will be a cold spell at some point, and the regression monster will get to Wright, probably when we least expect it. It happens to the best of them. But I think it is likely that Wright keeps climbing up these rankings over the next few weeks. If you are among the fantasy managers in the 15 percent of Fantrax leagues where Wright is still available, don’t even check out my rankings until you add him.

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings