We have a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, with games spread fairly evenly throughout the day. The books have already decided they are not having it with games at Coors Field. Some of the lines for today’s game, particularly as they relate to hitters on the Cardinals, are borderline comical. Sadly, it is hard to blame them. Colorado’s 1-0 victory in their home opener last week has proven to be quite the anomaly. The subsequent five games have seen an average of 13.4 runs per game, with all five totals in double-figures. I am not going to pay the prices necessary for props in that game. Luckily for us, there are still several spots to attack. Here are my top three MLB player props for Wednesday’s games.
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MLB Player Props for April 12
Julio Rodriguez 2+ Total Bases (+100 at MGM)
Marcus Stroman has had a great start to the season, but I think the books are giving him too much credit here. Today’s game is a day game with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field. These conditions often lead to lots of balls leaving the yard, regardless of who is on the mound. Stroman allowed at least four runs in a start on six occasions last season. One was at Coors Field, and the other five were at home. Often, these blowups were aided by the weather conditions. I am expecting another slugfest in Chicago today. As of this writing, there are no Stroman props concerning the number of hits or runs he will allow today. So I am going to pivot to Mariners bats.
I don’t mind doubling up on multiple M’s based on the pricing. However, for the sake of this piece, I am going to roll with Julio Rodriguez to record two or more total bases. Rodriguez has been held out of the hit column in the first two games of this series. But I expect the phenom to get back in the swing of things today. Rodriguez had an elite +11 Run-Value on sinkers last season. That is Stroman’s most popular pitch, and one I expect him to throw often given the conditions. I am playing Rodriguez’ total bases prop at even money, but I think a bet on him to leave the yard is viable as well. A Rodriguez home run pays out at +450 on Caesars for those who want a little more bang for their buck.
Austin Hays 2+ Total Bases (+110 at MGM)
You probably expected me to list Ryan Mountcastle here, especially after last night’s explosion. Far be it from me to talk anyone out of making that bet. But I am going to point out that Mountcastle is not the only Oriole hitter to consider. Austin Hays led off for Baltimore last night and responded with four hits. He has homered and doubled in both games of their current series. The Orioles now face Ken Waldichuk, who has been abysmal against right-handed hitters in his young career. Righties have a lifetime of .433 wOBA (weighted on-base average) versus Waldichuk. For reference, Patrick Corbin allowed a .443 wOBA to right-handed hitters on the road last season.
Hays has also tattooed two of Waldichuk’s top three offerings to right-handed hitters so far this year. (Statcast does not have hitter data against the “sweeper” quite yet.) Hays has an expected batting average of over .350 against both the four-seam fastball and changeup. Those two pitches make up about 80 percent of Waldichuk’s repertoire against right-handed batters. I would double-check the lineup before locking in this bet. If Hays is leading off again, this is 100 percent a go for me. I still like it if he is in the middle of the order. But if that is the case, you have to consider that he will likely only face Waldichuk twice. Then again, it’s not as if Oakland has a bunch of world-beaters waiting in the wings when Waldichuk makes his exit. Either way, this is one of my favorite MLB player props for today.
Kevin Gausman OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-130, PointsBet)
Kevin Gausman has yet to allow an earned run through two starts. He has also struck out seven batters both times out. That includes an outing against the St. Louis Cardinals, who are one of the toughest teams to strike out. Their 19.3 percent K-rate against right-handed pitchers is the fifth-lowest in the league. The Detroit Tigers are in the middle of the pack in that category. They have a 23.6 percent strikeout rate against righties. However, they are not a strong offense by any means. They currently rank 29th in wOBA and 28th in wRC+. Current Tiger hitters have struck out 18 times in just 57 career plate appearances against Gausman. I expect Gausman to be able to navigate this lineup with relative ease and rack up a bunch of strikeouts in the process.