After a pretty miserable pitching slate on Friday, we have the exact opposite for a nine-game contest on Monday. Several aces are in action including a two-time Cy Young Winner (Corbin Burnes) who finally looked like himself last time out after two very poor starts. We will have to balance our pitching desires with some of the big bats and strong hitting environments on the slate. And how do we manage poor offenses in strong offensive environments like the Pittsburgh Pirates visiting the Colorado Rockies?
If you have any thoughts or recommendations for how we can better cover MLB DFS in 2023, reach out to us on Twitter or send me a message (@CableBoxScore). I’m always happy to talk a little DFS throughout the day, and let’s win some slates together! Let’s start by looking at weather issues for Monday as well as the best hitting and pitching environments on the main slate today.
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MLB DFS Picks and Plays for April 17
Today’s analysis covers the nine-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel at 7:10 PM ET.
Weather Concerns:
- Winds are blowing out to left field at Guaranteed Rate Field at about 15 mph (Chicago White Sox)
- Winds are blowing out to left-center field at T-Mobile Park at about 15 mph (Seattle Mariners)
Best Hitters’ Parks:
- Coors Field
- Dodger Stadium
- Guaranteed Rate Field
Best Pitchers’ Parks:
- T-Mobile Park
- Busch Stadium
- Oakland Coliseum
DraftKings Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Jacob DeGrom ($10,100) @ Kansas City Royals – I will gladly take the $100 discount off of Kevin Gausman over on DraftKings considering the MUCH easier matchup on Monday. DeGrom gets the Royals who have the third-highest strikeout rate in the league (26.2%) and the 28th-ranked slugging percentage (.344) this season. DeGrom just struck out nine Royals in seven innings in his last start.
Value Pitcher
Jack Flaherty ($7,800) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks – Flaherty looked quite good at Coors Field last week, allowing only one run in 5.1 innings with six strikeouts. In fact, 13 of his 16 outs came via the strikeout or groundball which is exactly the recipe to succeed in Colorado. Now he gets the friendly confines of his home stadium and an Arizona squad that is 28th in on-base percentage and has only hit 11 home runs as a team.
High-Dollar Infielder
Austin Riley ($5,600) vs. Ryan Weathers – For his career, Ryan Weathers’ slugging percentage allowed is about 70 points higher against righties (.495) than against lefty batters (.427). Riley is slugging .688 with a robust 1.188 OPS against lefties so far in 2023.
Value Infielder
Miguel Vargas ($2,700) vs. David Peterson – Assuming Vargas bats sixth as he has in four of his last five games, I love this value on a team that should be circling the bases with frequency on Monday night. The 23-year-old has a 132 wRC+ through his first 2.5 weeks thanks to a whopping .447 on-base percentage. He should be a very cheap source of points with walks, runs, and RBI.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Mookie Betts ($5,900) vs. David Peterson – Betts is also eligible at second base where he may be more useful on Monday night. But one thing is certain, Betts should smash the lefty Peterson. For his career, Betts has a .294/.377/.519 slash line and a 138 wRC+. After a couple of scoreless nights, Betts bounced back in a big way with 15 DK points on Sunday.
Value Outfielder
Garrett Mitchell ($3,000) vs. Chris Flexen – Jesse Winker was scratched again on Sunday so that meant Mitchell moved into the top five of the batting order again. He responded with a huge 15-point fantasy game despite his team only scoring one run all day. Flexen only has a 10% strikeout rate but a 12.7% walk rate in 2023, which is not the territory you want to live in with a dangerous offense like the Brewers.
Best DraftKings Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. David Peterson – The Dodgers are a VERY expensive stack on Monday against the mediocre David Peterson, but they are likely to get very right-handed against him and have an implied total of 4.73 runs. Besides Mookie Betts and Miguel Vargas, the Dodgers will likely role out affordable options like Chris Taylor ($3,500), Trayce Thompson ($2,900), and Austin Barnes ($2,800) with Will Smith on the concussion IL.
FanDuel Top Plays
High-Dollar Pitcher
Zach Wheeler ($9,700) @ Chicago White Sox – Over on DraftKings, Wheeler is the third-most expensive pitcher on the slate. On FanDuel, he is only the fifth-highest and is just $100 more expensive than DK (a sure sign of value on a player on FD). Even with Eloy Jimenez back, the White Sox have a depleted roster and are striking out almost 21% of the time. Their 6.5% walk rate is down to third-lowest in the league as well.
Value Pitcher
Lance Lynn ($8,500) vs. Philadelphia Phillies – On the other side of that game, we have a pitcher who has been very Jekyll and Hyde his first three starts. Two have been outstanding including against Houston and Minnesota. He only gave up five total earned runs in those two starts with 16 strikeouts and the Phillies strike out at the fifth-highest rate in the league (25.4%).
High-Dollar Infielder
C.J. Cron ($3,800) vs. Rich Hill – Considering what Cron has done this year with the bat and the fact that this game is being played in great conditions in Coors Field, I can’t understand why he is just $3,800 against Rich Hill. He already has four home runs on this young season and slugs .488 against left-handers in his career.
Value Infielder
Ke’Bryan Hayes ($2,900) vs. Kyle Freeland – Kyle Freeland has been masterful through three starts this year, including two at home where he allowed just two earned runs total. The Pirates aren’t an intimidating offense overall, but Hayes at the top of the lineup can do some damage. For his career, he bats .284/.343/.445 against southpaws, which are all at least 30 points higher than his numbers against right-handers.
High-Dollar Outfielder
Yordan Alvarez ($4,500) vs. Kevin Gausman – Gausman is having a terrific year so far, but it is masked somewhat by the fact that teams have been very right-hander heavy against him so far. Against righties, he allows a .196/.213/.239 slash this year while those all jump to .267/.313/.467 against lefties. You might have heard that Alvarez is quite a good left-handed hitter with his .292/.407/.604 line so far this year.
Value Outfielder
Jurickson Profar ($2,800) vs. Rich Hill – The Rockies (as we have seen with Cron, and as we will see below) are a great place to look for offense on Monday night and that starts with leadoff man Profar who is way too cheap at just $2,800. Profar has zero fantasy points just once in the last 11 games. He is averaging 14.4 fantasy points over his last five home games.
Best FanDuel Stack
Colorado Rockies vs. Rich Hill – Despite a slate-high 6.3 implied run total, no one on this Rockies’ roster is more than $3,800 (Cron) on FanDuel. Everyone else is $3,300 or under including right-handers Kris Bryant, Elias Diaz, Elehuris Montero, and switch-hitter Profar. I respect what 89-year-old Rich Hill is doing right now and making all of us old guys look good, but this has disaster written all over it for the over-the-hill hurler.
Is there a way to get DFS every day?