We took some time off, but we’re back and 8-4 on the season. I fully plan on keeping my crystal ball clear, so let’s make our next move, our best move! It’s baseball season my friends, and with the new rule changes, the game is faster and more action-packed than ever. Limited pickoff attempts and bigger bases should make steals more frequent. A ban on shifts make singles and doubles more prominent, so we’re more likely to see the return of small ball. And the pitch clock has more and more pitchers calling their own games. Every action has a reaction, so we will be sure to take these rule changes into account when we make our player prop selections. Sportsbooks vary, so we’ll set our own lines with what makes sense based on the data, and you can bet accordingly with your favorite sportsbook. Now, without further ado, let’s get into it!
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MLB Player Prop Bets for April 27th
DJ LeMahieu OVER 1+ Total Bases:
The Yankees take on the Rangers and Andrew Heaney tonight. Lucky for DJ, he’s got a stellar record against Heaney, going 6 of 12, with 1 HR, and 5 RBI. He’s hitting .280 on the year and has at least one hit in four of his five last games. DJ is known for his plate discipline and solid at-bats, so I feel comfortable that he’ll at least get on base via a walk, if he didn’t bring his hit stick with him to Texas. The Yankees are playing well at the moment, so I feel good about this one.
Joey Gallo UNDER 1 Hit:
There was a time when Zack Greinke was one of the elite pitchers in baseball. That time has come and gone, but he still knows how to get it done, and keep himself a starting pitcher in Major League Baseball. One player who has never been able to get him figured out is Joey Gallo. Gallo is 0 for 17 vs. Greinke in his career. 0 for 17. 8 strikeouts. 1 walk. Yikes. Gallo has been having a great bounce back year, hitting .262 with 7 HRs so far, but history leads me to believe this will not be one of his best days at the plate.
Jorge Mateo OVER 2+ Total Bases:
Baseball is one of the few sports where momentum and magic seem to exist. The Baltimore Orioles are a team that seems to have both right now. Their rebuild has gone perfectly thus far, and they are currently the 2nd best team in the AL East, and have the 1st Wild Card spot. It’s early, and they’ve had an easy schedule, but you can only play who you play. Tonight they play the Tigers, and Wentz is on the mound for Detroit. He throws a 92.5 MPH fastball 50% of the time to righties. Mateo hits that velocity fastball very well, with a 100% hard hit rate, .636 ISO, and 95 MPH exit velocity according to RotoGrinders data. If Mateo gets on base, he’s going to steal one too. I’d be comfortable going to 3 total bases, if I wanted more juice, to be honest.