With the second half underway, most teams in MLB have a good idea of where their seasons are heading. These teams will be buying and selling pieces over the next week and a half, including several big-name prospects. Most of the pitchers on this list are in the upper levels of the minors and could make an impact at the MLB in 2024. These pitchers are currently with teams that are looking for a bigger impact down the stretch or need help somewhere in the lineup. Assuming any of these players are dealt to worse teams before the trade deadline, a new path could open up and lead to some more immediate MLB playing time.
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Pitching Prospects to Watch Ahead of the Trade Deadline
Chase Petty – CIN
One of the biggest stories in baseball over the last several weeks has been the Reds’ breakout. After promoting Elly De La Cruz, the human sparkplug, they vaulted up the NL Central standings and are going back and forth up top with the Brewers.
With such a young core, they likely won’t push all-in before the 2023 deadline but could look to make some long-term moves. The future of the rotation will be anchored by Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott, but currently, they could use another arm. A promotion for Connor Phillips seems imminent but acquiring a veteran like Eduardo Rodriguez would certainly help the postseason push.
The offense is a less pressing issue right now but a middle-of-the-lineup bat like Teoscar Hernandez could fit as well.
If the Reds truly want to make a push this year, Chase Petty’s name will be brought up in trade negotiations. He was acquired from the Twins before the 2022 season in the Sonny Gray trade and has looked terrific at the High-A level in 2023.
The 20-year-old is sporting a 1.74 ERA and a 44:10 K:BB but he hasn’t thrown more than four innings in any outing. If the Reds stick to smaller moves and hang on to their top handful of prospects, Petty won’t be going anywhere.
However, they’d likely rather include him in a larger deal than someone like Phillips due to proximity to the majors. Petty probably won’t be ready to help the MLB club until 2025. In a more low-key move, the Reds could attempt to capitalize on RHP Lyon Richardson’s breakout campaign.
Jack Leiter – TEX
In general, I like to believe that a “change of scenery,” especially with young players, can turn careers around. Few prospects need that more than Jack Leiter right now. Just two years removed from being the second overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft, the 23-year-old’s value has plummeted.
He’s repeating the Double-A level this season and hasn’t shown any signs of progress. Leiter’s 29.5% strikeout rate is strong but his 14.9% walk rate and 5.51 ERA stand out on his stat line. This comes after posting a 5.54 ERA in 92.2 Double-A frames last year. It looked like Leiter was turning things around with a 2.68 ERA over an eight-start stretch but he’s been tagged with 14 runs in just five innings over his last two outings. He’s since landed on the “development list” to work through some mechanical issues.
Mixing in his slider with his fastball,@Rangers No. 4 prospect Jack Leiter spins his 3rd quality start of the month for @RidersBaseball:
6 IP
2 H
1 R
1 BB
4 K pic.twitter.com/K87yqu6cc2— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) June 1, 2023
The Rangers have already acquired Aroldis Chapman this summer and should continue to push their chips in for a deep playoff run. The farm system is fairly deep and is plenty to land some impact players ahead of the deadline.
Leiter is one of several prospects that Texas could shop around as it looks to build on its AL West lead. The team would certainly be selling low on him at this stage but, barring a dramatic turnaround, it doesn’t seem like he’ll benefit the MLB roster at any point in the next two years during their main competitive window.
The Rangers will likely look to add some depth to the starting rotation as well as one more impact bat. Someone like Cody Bellinger in the outfield makes a lot of sense while a reunion with Lance Lynn could rejuvenate the veteran pitcher.
Spencer Schwellenbach – ATL
Atlanta holds the best record in MLB and has already added some bullpen depth, including Pierce Johnson from Colorado. The team has completely emptied the farm system over the last few years but will still be shopping around to fill out the roster before the deadline. It’s hard to find a hole in the Braves’ depth chart, especially with Max Fried nearing a return.
They don’t have any big-name prospects left to make a big splash, so they’ll likely look to make a few smaller moves. Expect them to target a bench bat, possibly a lefty, as well as some more bullpen depth. A back-end starter could make sense as well, but they could also just bring AJ Smith-Shawver back up from Triple-A Gwinnett.
While the prospect depth is lacking, Atlanta’s strength in the minors is pitching. Eight of the team’s top-10 prospects are arms, even after dealing Victor Vodnik to Colorado.
This makes someone like Spencer Schwellenbach a nice trade chip. The 23-year-old is finally pitching in pro ball; he underwent Tommy John surgery after being taken in the second round of the 2021 MLB Draft and made his pro debut at the High-A level this season.
Schwellenbach has registered a 2.63 ERA and a 41:15 K:BB through 13 starts. He doesn’t have a ton of value right now but Atlanta doesn’t need to do much at the deadline. I’d expect the team to hang on to older pitchers like Smith-Shawver and Dylan Dodd as well as higher upside arms like Owen Murphy.
Mick Abel – PHI
Since being selected 15th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft, Mick Abel has climbed to the Double-A level in Philadelphia’s system.
He’s shown good strikeout stuff at every level but his command has held him back from taking the next step. The 21-year-old’s command has actually regressed this season, resulting in a 5.2 BB/9 and a 12.5% K-BB%.
Abel looked solid through his first handful of starts in 2023 with a 2.53 ERA through five outings. However, in 44.1 innings since then, he’s walked 30 batters while registering a 5.28 ERA. In 2022, he posted a 3.90 ERA over 108.1 frames, including a 3.52 ERA in five starts after his promotion to Double-A Reading. In his minor-league career, Abel is sporting a 4.7 BB/9.
98 mph 🔥 from @Phillies No. 2 prospect Mick Abel to get Harry Ford in the #FuturesGame pic.twitter.com/RSGS66ww40
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 8, 2023
The Phillies are locked into a tight battle in the NL Wild Card race. A playoff spot is far from guaranteed right now and it’s unclear how hard the team is willing to push before the trade deadline.
Like their division rivals in Atlanta, the Phillies’ system is fairly thin and the top names Andrew Painter and Justin Crawford, won’t be available.
Assuming the team is looking to add, Abel seems like a name that many opposing teams will target. He’s another “change of scenery” candidate; the stuff is there but he needs to fix the control issues.
The Phillies’ biggest hole right now is at third base and a player like Jeimer Candelario could be a nice fit. On the flip side, Philadelphia could shock everyone and flip the pending free agent Aaron Nola instead.
Jake Eder – MIA
After missing the entire 2022 season while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, Jake Eder is back on the mound in Miami’s system. His 2023 return was delayed due to a broken foot as well.
He’s registered a 4.54 ERA with a lackluster 12.7% K-BB% as he continues shaking the rust off. The 24-year-old flew up prospect lists in 2021 with a 1.77 ERA and 12.5 K/9 through 71.1 innings with Double-A Pensacola.
Eder has a nasty slider that he relied on while getting “future ace” labels pre-surgery. It’s hard to predict what his value looks like right now and the Marlins likely won’t be trying to dump him without a solid return. Of course, it helps that their farm is rich with pitching prospects, especially after snagging Noble Meyer and Thomas White in the 2023 MLB Draft.
Another NL East team fighting for a wild card spot, the Marlins have been a pleasant surprise in 2023 despite Jazz Chisholm missing over 50 games already.
As usual, they’ve done this with great pitching and subpar offensive output. Miami’s offense has compiled a -3.3 WAR, which looks much worse when Luis Arraez alone has a 4.0 WAR.
The Marlins aren’t exactly a World Series favorite right now but it could be time to move some prospect depth for controllable MLB bats. They need help all over the diamond, so really any bat will do, regardless of position. Tommy Edman, Ryan McMahon, and Salvador Perez all make sense for various reasons. All three of those teams align well with Miami as could use some help on the mound.
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