Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Ranger Up

Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola were highly sought-after players in fantasy baseball drafts this offseason. Fantasy managers drafted Wheeler at the beginning of the third round in 12-team leagues, while Nola went early in the fifth. Those who drafted Wheeler are certainly not complaining, as he has been a top-five starting pitcher. Nola has started a bit slower but is still an SP3 so far. As you can see by my updated rest-of-season fantasy baseball rankings, I still think he will be fine. However, it is Ranger Suarez who leads all of baseball in year-to-date fantasy production among starting pitchers. How has he done it, and will it continue?

As the Beastie Boys once put it, “Slow and low, that is the tempo”. I don’t know Suarez’s taste in music, but it appears he at least follows that mantra when it comes to pitching. Suarez has an average fastball of 91.4 miles per hour, which measures in just the 13th percentile among pitchers. And that is nearly two MPH slower than last year. Suarez has always been a groundball pitcher, and this season has been no different. Per Fangraphs, Suarez ranks third among 80 qualified pitchers in ground ball rate (57.7 percent) and fourth in hard-hit rate (21.4 percent). Statcast credits him with slightly different percentages but has him in the 94th percentile among all pitchers in both categories. 

Regardless of which numbers you use, it is hard to argue with the results Suarez has produced through a quarter of the season. He enters the week with a perfect 7-0 record to go along with a 1.50 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. His ability to deceive hitters is a huge part of his early success. Despite not having overpowering stuff (Fangraphs gives Suarez an 84 on its “Stuff+” meter, which puts Suarez 72nd among the 80 qualifiers), Suarez ranks 13thin strikeout rate, fanning batters at a 28.1-percent clip. Suarez ranks eighth in O-Swing, which measures swing rates on pitches outside the strike zone. He also has the fifth-lowest Z-Swing, which accounts for swings inside the zone. In other words, Suarez is getting a lot of called strikes, then getting hitters to chase pitches outside the strike zone. 

Suarez has also displayed improved control so far this year. His best season-long walk rate was 7.9 percent, which came in his breakout 2021 campaign. This year his walk rate stands at 4.1 percent. 2021 was also the season in which Suarez posted his best strikeout rate (25.6 percent). It should be noted that in 2021, Suarez only made 12 starts. Most of his success that season came out of the Phillies bullpen. Therefore, it is fair to question whether Suarez can sustain this rate over a full season. The easy answer is to suggest that regression is in store. I don’t think you need me to tell you Ranger Suarez isn’t winning 25 games this season. The degree of regression is what is up for debate. 

His first start of the season when he faced the Atlanta Braves was his only start against a team that currently has a winning record or one that ranks in the top half in MLB in wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers. We cannot completely hold that against Suarez, but I do think it should be considered. I still think Suarez will be solid going forward, but not elite. I rank him as an SP4 in 12-team leagues in this week’s ROS rankings. Fantasy managers should probably continue to ride the wave considering where Suarez was drafted. However, I don’t mind shopping him around if you have a leaguemate who believes Suarez will continue to be among the game’s best starting pitchers. 

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings