This week’s edition of Dynasty Baseball Buys features a superstar off to a painfully slow start and a fast-rising prospect, who is still widely available in dynasty leagues. The dynasty baseball sells consists of a pitcher who has been dominant so far but is due for regression, and a consensus top-100 prospect who is struggling to make contact with the ball. In case you missed it, you should check out last week’s edition of Dynasty Baseball Buys and Sells.
Dynasty Baseball Buys
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Carroll is one of the biggest fantasy mysteries this season. He is coming off a historic year, where he was the first rookie to put up 25 homers and 50 stolen bases in a season. Carroll also finished with 116 runs, which was seventh best in the majors. He was a consensus top-five draft pick in leagues this year. Many of his owners were expecting him to continue to build off of his phenomenal rookie season.
Carroll can simply not be this bad. There are plenty of signs that the struggling outfielder will turn things around. Carroll has a .237 BABIP, which is extremely low. His BABIP last season was .325 and it was .333 in 2022. I would have to think his BABIP will creep close to .300 by the end of the season. His xBA is over 40 points higher than his actual average.
He’s also been unlucky in the home run department. He’s barreled nine balls this season but only has two home runs. Typically, on average, 61.5% of barrels are homers. So technically, five or six of Carroll’s barrels should have been home runs this season. There has never been a better time to buy low on a player like Carroll, he should improve by leaps and bounds.
Tre’ Morgan, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Morgan was not on any top 100 prospect rankings this preseason by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, or MLB.com. He was drafted in the third round of the 2023 draft out of Louisiana State University. Morgan is currently splitting first base duties at High-A with Xavier Isaac, the Rays’ number three overall prospect. He has played nine games in left field this season, which is where he may end up playing due to Isaac occupying first base.
Morgan impressed in his short stint in the minors last season. He slashed .396/.482/.542 in 56 plate appearances between Single-A and Rookie ball. He also showed an impressive batting eye, drawing eight walks and striking out only three times. Morgan has started this year right where he left off last season, slashing .359/.445/.549 in 167 plate appearances between Single-A and High-A. He’s only striking out at an 8.4% clip this season. Morgan has also swiped 10 bags. I would consider Morgan a strong dynasty baseball buy or pickup before he starts shooting up the prospect rankings.
Dynasty Baseball Sells
Seth Lugo, SP, Kansas City Royals
Lugo has been one of the pleasant surprises of the 2024 fantasy season. He has a stellar 2.13 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 71 strikeouts in 84.1 innings. He ranks sixth in the majors in ERA among qualified starters, just behind Tarik Skubal. His WHIP and BB% also rank in the top 20 in the majors. He also has nine wins, which is tied for the major league lead. It has been a spectacular start to the season for the 34-year-old veteran.
However, now is the time to get what you still can for Lugo. His advanced stats suggest he is due to regress quite a bit. Lugo’s xERA, xFIP, and SIERA are all over 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA. Also, his K% is at its mark since 2017. His dynasty value is probably as high as we’ll ever see it again. It would be wise to consider him a dynasty baseball sell at this point.
Termarr Johnson, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Johnson is ranked as a top 100 prospect by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus and MLB.com. He is the 44th-ranked prospect by MLB.com. Johnson was drafted fourth overall in the 2022 draft. His main calling card has been his elite on-base skills. He got on-base at a .422 clip in 2023, which is on par with his .404 on-base percentage for his minor league career.
Johnson has elite on-base skills, but his hit tool has always been a question mark. Johnson is a .230 career hitter, who has never had above a .245 average in any season. He is currently hitting .203 in 211 plate appearances and also has the lowest on-base percentage of his career. He also isn’t showcasing much speed. Johnson has only swiped seven bags this season and only has 23 career stolen bases in 755 plate appearances. Johnson isn’t exhibiting many positive attributes outside of his on-base skills. I would try to trade or even cut bait with him in dynasty leagues.
For more fantasy and dynasty content, you can follow me on X @dynastyinfo411