Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Skenes Steals the Show

In last week’s ROS rankings column, I mentioned that I generally tend to rank young pitchers lower than most analysts. As with most “rules”, there are exceptions. And it is safe to say that Paul Skenes is breaking a lot more than my loose rules regarding young pitchers. Skenes is quickly becoming a phenomenon throughout the league and has been tapped to start Tuesday’s All-Star game. That designation is anything but a publicity stunt considering how he has carved through the league.

As we reach the season’s All-Star break, Skenes is an SP2 in 12-team fantasy leagues in terms of year-to-date value. But that does not even begin to tell the story. That is because Skenes did not even make his Major League debut until May 11. All he has done since then is go 6-0 in 11 starts with a 1.90 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and 89 strikeouts. Among 130 pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings, Skenes ranks sixth or better in all ERA indicators. Skenes “only” ranks 11th among those pitchers in batting average allowed and 13th in walk rate. He trails only Garrett Crochet in strikeout rate and K-BB rate. Razzball credits Skenes with the highest per-game fantasy value among starting pitchers this season. Skenes is just short of Chris Sale, with Sale’s start on Sunday pending.

So, what can fantasy managers expect from Skenes in the second half? Perhaps more importantly, do we expect the Pittsburgh Pirates to rein in Skenes’ usage down the stretch?

Paul Skenes Second Half Outlook

I think some things are working in his favor in that regard. First is that he looks to be built differently. Though he recently turned 22 years old, Skenes is a big kid. He stands 6’6” and weighs 235 pounds. That should allow him to absorb a bigger workload than most pitchers his age. Skenes threw 122.2 innings at LSU last season before the Pirates drafted him first overall. Skenes only faced 28 hitters over five starts at three different stops for Pittsburgh last summer. In total last year, he threw 129.1 innings. Thus far in 2024, he has thrown 93.2 innings between Pittsburgh and Triple-A Indianapolis.

Last week I mentioned that I believed the Chicago White Sox would greatly reduce Garrett Crochet’s workload based on his lack of work in prior seasons. Sure enough, they pulled him after just two innings and 28 pitches in his last start. Fantasy managers should probably expect this to happen at least a couple of more times in the season’s second half. But I believe Pittsburgh will let Skenes work a bit more regularly given how much he pitched last year. I guess that they will build him up to somewhere in the 150-160-inning range. That means he should be good for about 10 starts at roughly six innings per start after the All-Star break. Given those parameters, I am comfortable tabbing Skenes as a top-15 fantasy starter in this week’s rest-of-season rankings.

The wild card (pun intended) in this equation is that Pittsburgh is currently within striking distance of an NL playoff berth. They are currently 2.5 games out of the last Wild Card spot, though several teams are in the hunt. If they are in a position to make the playoffs, they could save some of Skenes’ bullets for October baseball. If they fall too far out of contention, they may just throw in the towel on the season and save Skenes for 2025. I suspect that Pittsburgh will remain reasonably competitive but ultimately fall short of the playoffs. That is probably the best-case scenario for fantasy managers who are relying on Skenes over the next two months.

Rest of Season Fantasy Baseball Rankings