The off-season has just begun, and we’re getting early reports from the GM meetings about key MLB Free Agents in 2025. Players like Cody Bellinger have exercised their player options or declined mutual options; we even have some qualifying offers being tendered. Juan Soto even came out and said he wasn’t married to one team, and a week later we got Japanese Superstar Roki Sasaki being posted. This continuation of the Top 2025 MLB Free Agents series examines players ranked #21-40, with predictions and fantasy impact. After you finish here you should also check out
Roki Sasaki
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2025 MLB Free Agent Predictions
Featured Spotlight: Roki Sasaki SP | (NPB) Chiba Lotte Marines | 2025 Age: 23
My Prediction: San Diego Padres
Fantasy Impact: As of this writing, Roki Sasaki has been posted by The Marines, adding another young Japanese superstar to the 2025 free-agent pool. At 23, Sasaki would rank #1 on MLB’s Top Prospect list and #3 on our Top 20 MLB Free Agents behind Corbin Burnes. His pure stuff is tantalizing—a three-pitch mix including a four-seamer reaching 102 mph, a splitter rumored to rival Senga’s, and a swing-and-miss slider. His performance in the 2023 WBC, with 64 MLB scouts watching, convinced me he has top-10 SP potential in MLB right now. He’ll easily slot as a #2, if not a #1, with immediate ace upside in any rotation. However, keep in mind the transition period for Japanese players adjusting from a six-man rotation in NPB and a different baseball. For fantasy, I’d draft him as a comfortable #2 or #3 SP, acknowledging the adjustment period shown by Yamamoto and Senga. While his potential excites us, avoid overreaching, as his adaptation to MLB could impact early performance.
For More info on the Japanese Posting of Roki Sasaki
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Luis Severino SP |2024 Team: New York Mets | 2025 Age: 31
My Prediction: New York Mets
Fantasy Impact: Another ‘prove it’ deal turned into a success story for Luis Severino. While he didn’t dominate, he showed flashes of his former self, finishing with a 3.91 ERA. Interestingly, his home/away splits were stark: a 2.96 ERA at Citi Field versus a 5.00 ERA on the road. Severino’s fastball regained effectiveness, recording a career second-best 21.8% whiff rate. He also reduced his changeup usage, favoring cutters and adding a sinker to his mix. 2024 was his first fully healthy season since 2018. While he’s not back to his 2018 form, he displayed more pitchability than raw stuff. I expect his ADP to rise as fantasy players chase his past ace upside. I’ll consider drafting him based on value, but I’m cautious. Having spent his entire career in New York, with renewed success at Citi Field, Severino might just stay in the Big Apple, where the Mets need reliable innings.
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Gleyber Torres 2B | 2024 Team: New York Yankees | 2025 Age: 28
My Prediction: Seattle Mariners
Fantasy Impact: So much for expecting a perennial All-Star with 30 home runs each season. Maybe that’s too harsh, but Gleyber Torres remains one of the most frustrating players to rank. His talent and fantasy production seem worlds apart. His 2024 batted ball profile was underwhelming, with most metrics falling below the 35th percentile—a complete reversal from 2023. The bright spot is his discipline; his walk rate, chase rate, and whiff percentage are in the 60th percentile or better. Torres finished 2024 as a top-20 second baseman in points leagues, after ranking #6 at the position in 2023. It’s hard to count him out because each time he’s doubted, he rebounds, as he did in 2019 and 2023. However, if he signs with a team like Seattle, I’d lower expectations. His defense and baserunning often face criticism. With Jazz Chisholm ready to cover second, I don’t expect Torres back in New York, and Seattle seems a likely fit given his potentially soft market.
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Tyler O’Neill OF | 2024 Team: Boston Red Sox | 2025 Age: 30
My Prediction: Boston Red Sox
Fantasy Impact: Here’s yet another former Cardinal thriving elsewhere, leaving fans frustrated and questioning the front office. Tyler O’Neill spent last season in Boston, where he hit 31 home runs in 113 games—projecting to 45 homers over a full season. This made him one of the hidden gems of 2024 fantasy leagues. On the positive side, his walk rate increased to 11.5% in his first 100+ game season since 2021. The downside, however, is his career-high 33.6% strikeout rate and ongoing health concerns, having missed 229 games over the last four seasons. Despite the strikeout issues, his upside is appealing, especially if he remains in Boston. His pull-heavy fly ball approach suits the Green Monster perfectly, enhancing his potential value.
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Sean Manaea SP | 2024 Team: New York Mets | 2025 Age: 33
My Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays
Fantasy Impact: To quote the great Harry Doyle, ‘It’s amazing how a new uniform can change your attitude about a guy.’ For Sean Manaea, this change has been positive, resulting in arguably his best season as a pro. In 2024, he posted a career-high in innings pitched, a career-low ERA of 3.47, and his second-lowest WHIP at 1.084 over his nine seasons. The former Oakland starter had been largely fantasy-irrelevant in four of the past five seasons, showing only slight value in 2021. So, what changed? Watching a Mets game, you’d see Ron Darling or Keith Hernandez dissecting Manaea’s mechanical adjustments. He shifted to the extreme first base side of the rubber, lowered his arm angle from 28 to 22 degrees, and created unique angles on his sinker, backed by 99th-percentile extension. This adjustment earned his sinker a +15 Run Value, ranking 5th among starters. Despite his history, he’s a late-round sleeper as an innings eater with limited upside.
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Max Scherzer SP | 2024 Team: Texas Rangers | 2025 Age: 40
My Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Fantasy Impact: Is this the end for Mad Max? Scherzer’s decline has become evident over the last two injury-filled seasons. Once a reliable workhorse, he has hit the IL multiple times with shoulder, neck, and back issues. His average four-seam velocity has steadily dropped from 94.9 mph in 2019 to 92.5 mph in 2024, resulting in a Stuff+ rating of 78 on his fastball and a K/9 of 8.31, the second-lowest of his career. That said, this is still Max Scherzer, and it’s possible he could pitch 170+ innings with a 10.5 K/9 and a respectable 3.67 ERA. However, I’m not drafting him like the Scherzer of old, and likely not within the top 200 players. Potential suitors are limited, with the Yankees, Phillies, Mets, or possibly Detroit on a deferred deal. As a veteran free agent, Scherzer’s next contract could greatly impact his fantasy value depending on his role.
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Shane Bieber SP |2024 Team: Cleveland Guardians | 2025 Age: 30
My Prediction: Cleveland Guardians
Fantasy Impact: Shane Bieber is a challenging player to rank due to injuries and inconsistent performance. After winning the 2020 Cy Young, a shoulder injury limited him to 96 innings in 2021. He showed durability in 2022 with 200 innings but followed it with a mediocre 3.80 ERA in 2023. Elbow issues that year may have contributed to his velocity drop and ultimately led to Tommy John surgery in early 2024. Proceed with caution; reports indicate he won’t be ready until the second half of 2025. This return could mirror Walker Buehler’s recent comeback, but it’s also Bieber’s first Tommy John surgery, so optimism remains. When healthy, he can deliver ace-level production, making him a good discount stash in dynasty leagues. However, I’d avoid him in redraft leagues, especially in NFBC formats where an early impact is essential.
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Paul Goldschmidt 1B | 2024 Team: St Louis Cardinals | 2025 Age: 37
My Prediction: New York Mets
Fantasy Impact: While the Golden days of Goldy might be gone, he showed flashes of his former self in 2024. After a rough start, batting .230 with 114 strikeouts, he improved in the second half with a .271/.319/.480 line. However, his 26% strikeout rate and 28.9% O-Swing% were career highs, as were his whiff (25.8%) and strikeout rates (27.2%) against four-seamers. He was simply getting beat by velocity. Though I’m cautious about him in 2025, Goldschmidt remains one of the best hitters of his generation, as seen in his second-half surge. Adjusting to fastballs is within reach for a hitter of his caliber, even if he’s no longer a Tier-1 or Tier-2 option. He’s a solid Tier-4 fallback, ideal for the latter half of drafts if top first basemen are off the board. His value may be more lineup-dependent than park-dependent, given his strong batted-ball profile.
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Walker Buehler SP | 2024 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers | 2025 Age: 30
My Prediction: Texas Rangers
Fantasy Impact: Jeff Zimmerman wrote an interesting short article about pitchers coming back from a 2nd Tommy John and Their Success Rate. The bright spot of these convoluted numbers is that Year 2 after a second Tommy John presented the best ERA, WHIP, and return to velocity of any other year. Buehler will enter 2025 in his second season after Tommy John surgery, which is often a prime year for pitchers returning from the procedure. His recent playoff performance, spanning his last three appearances, included 10 innings, 13 strikeouts, 4 walks, and 0 earned runs, giving hope for his fantasy relevance. However, relying heavily on this small postseason sample could be risky. In the regular season, Buehler struggled with a 5.38 ERA over 75.1 innings and a low 7.65 K/9 rate. His return to the Dodgers might be uncertain, especially with Sasaki’s posting. Smaller market teams like Tampa or Pittsburgh could make a competitive bid. Additionally, a hitter-friendly park could hurt his value, as his 18.8% HR/FB ratio would have led the league if he qualified.
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Max Kepler OF | 2024 Team: Minnesota Twins | 2025 Age: 32
My Prediction: San Diego Padres
Fantasy Impact: Max Kepler’s home run totals have fluctuated significantly in recent years: 36 in 2019, 9 in 2020, 20 in 2021, 9 in 2022, 24 in 2023, and 8 in 2024. His low 2024 xwOBA and uncharacteristically low walk rate, both below his career norms, suggest he could rebound in 2025. However, Kepler’s reliability is a concern, as he has missed 40 or more games in three of the last four seasons. As a late-round draft pick, he could serve as a third or fourth outfielder with sleeper potential if he regains his power. Teams like the Padres, in need of a designated hitter, outfielder, or left-handed bat, could provide Kepler with a strong lineup to support a resurgence.
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J.D. Martinez DH | 2024 Team: New York Mets | 2025 Age: 37
My Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Fantasy Impact: J.D. Martinez defied age-related decline in the first half of 2024, batting .269 with 10 home runs. However, his season was derailed by a brutal 2nd half, hitting .199 with only 15 extra-base hits, likely due to ankle and elbow injuries. His second-half BABIP was .259, nearly 100 points below his career average of .338, indicating bad luck. Despite this, his batted ball profile remained elite, ranking in the 70th percentile or higher in many categories. Notably, he ranked sixth in the difference between xwOBA and wOBA, marking him as one of the unluckiest hitters in 2024. Given his intelligence at the plate, a bounce-back season is expected wherever he signs.
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Blake Treinen RP | 2024 Team: Los Angeles Dodgers | 2025 Age: 37
My Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
Fantasy Impact: Blake Treinen returned in 2024 from shoulder and rib issues without missing a beat. Between 2021, 2022, and 2024, he has been a force at the back end of the Dodgers’ bullpen. He has compiled a 1.91 ERA with 146 strikeouts in 124 innings pitched, while walking only 37. Those are elite closer numbers. If he signs with a team that will insert him into the closer’s role, this could be a steal at the end of the draft. However, his value changes drastically if he assumes a non-closer, high-leverage role instead. Therefore, his ranking here is strictly team-dependent. Treinen would likely rank ninth or tenth among relief pitchers if he gets an opportunity to close, so keep a close eye on reports and consider taking a flier if you can.
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Nick Pivetta RP/SP | 2024 Team: Boston Red Sox | 2025 Age: 32
My Prediction: Kansas City Royals
Fantasy Impact: Don’t call it a comeback, or maybe we should. Nick Pivetta’s last two seasons have been a roller coaster. After losing his rotation spot in 2023, he became a strikeout machine in the bullpen and carried that success back into the rotation in 2024. When he moved to the bullpen in May 2023, his career ERA was around 5.08 with a 24.4% strikeout rate. Since then, he has posted a combined ERA of 3.73, while his strikeout rate rose to 31.3% and stayed strong as a starter in 2024. Given his rough start, many fantasy players may overlook him in drafts. However, Pivetta could be a valuable late-round pick, providing solid innings, a respectable ERA, and strong strikeout numbers.
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Josh Bell 1B | 2024 Team: Miami Marlins/Arizona Diamondbacks | 2025 Age: 32
My Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Fantasy Impact: Formerly a reliable first baseman for the Pirates, Josh Bell has become a journeyman with fluctuating production since leaving Pittsburgh. He hit .301 with 14 home runs for the Nationals but slumped in San Diego with a .192 average and 3 home runs. In Cleveland, he hit .233 with 11 home runs, then improved to .270 with 11 home runs in Miami. In 2024, he batted .239 with 14 home runs in Miami before heating up in Arizona, hitting .279 with 5 home runs. Bell’s fantasy relevance depends on which version of him shows up in 2025. Though his 30-home-run seasons may be behind him, he remains useful in deeper leagues. He often starts strong in spring, so consider him as a backup option, but be cautious if he begins slowly. A return to Pittsburgh or a move to the Giants could be on the horizon.
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Justin Verlander SP | 2024 Team: Houston Astros | 2025 Age: 42
My Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Fantasy Impact: Some players leave such an impact on fantasy baseball that we always hold out hope for a comeback, despite recent struggles. For me, that’s Justin Verlander, even as he enters his age 42 season. Since his Tommy John surgery, his velocity has dropped each year, with a full mph decrease in 2024. This decline finally caught up to him, as his four-seamer, a once-dominant pitch, was hit hard in 2024. It ranked 11th worst among starters and pushed his max exit velocity up to 118.8 mph, placing him in the league’s bottom half. However, Verlander is a no-doubt Hall of Famer, and I don’t think he’d return for his 20th season if he didn’t believe he could still perform. His next contract will likely be incentive-based, lowering the AAV and potentially opening doors with teams like Detroit, where his career began.
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Kenley Jansen RP | 2024 Team: Boston Red Sox | 2025 Age: 37
My Prediction: Washington Nationals
Fantasy Impact: Kenley Jansen has been on the verge of decline for a few years, yet he still posts respectable ERAs, FIPs, and save totals. While he won’t rank in the top 15 closers for points leagues, he remains valuable in deeper 12- and 15-team formats. The key is that Jansen won’t agree to a deal unless he’s guaranteed the closer role. I saw this firsthand during his time with the Braves, where he held the closer spot despite options like Minter, Matzek, and Raisel Iglesias. Even an average closer with consistent opportunities often holds more value than a dominant middle reliever, except in holds leagues. Jansen has at least shown he can be a reliable source of saves, despite the occasional nerve-wracking performance. The Nationals had 63 save opportunities last season, and if Jansen secures 30+ of those, he could be a solid RP#2 option.
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Nick Martinez RP/SP | 2024 Team: Cincinnati Reds | 2025 Age: 34
My Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Fantasy Impact: Nick Martinez was one of the top contributors in fantasy leagues during the 2024 stretch run. He’s likely to be the top SPARP (Starting Pitcher as Relief Pitcher) for 2025, assuming no major rotation changes occur. Since returning from Japan in 2022, Martinez has posted a sub-3.50 ERA each season. While his whiff and strikeout rates hover around 20%, his strength lies in contact suppression and limiting freebies. Over the past two seasons, he ranked in the 95th percentile or better in average exit velocity and hard-hit percentage, with an 88th percentile barrel rate in 2024. Martinez’s fantasy postseason was stellar, with 4 quality starts, 1 complete game, 4 wins, and a 30/4 K/BB ratio over the last four weeks, totaling 122 points in standard formats. No other RP or SPARP came close. In points leagues, he’s my top SPARP and ranks #4 among RPs for 2025. In Roto or categories leagues, he’s a high-end #4 SP with a limited ceiling.
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Frankie Montas SP | 2024 Team: Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers | 2025 Age: 32
My Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Fantasy Impact: We waited years for Frankie Montas to leave Oakland, hoping for ace-level production elsewhere in MLB. Unfortunately, things haven’t gone as expected. Despite some injuries, Montas has been largely disappointing with New York and Cincinnati. The good news? After being traded to Milwaukee in 2024, he found his strikeout ability again. However, his HR/FB ratio has surged since leaving Oakland, ranking 6th worst in 2024 at 14.8%. He has pitched in two of the three worst parks for home runs since 2022, and while he’s not strictly a flyball pitcher, homers have hurt him. In Milwaukee’s rotation, which is only slightly better than Yankee Stadium and Great American Ball Park, Montas struck out 70 over 57.1 innings but allowed 10 home runs. His velocity remains solid, and his command is average with 3.94 walks per nine. Shoulder issues add injury risk, but if he joins a team like the Cubs, Tigers, or Giants, he could have late-round appeal.
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Joc Pederson DH | 2024 Team: Arizona Diamondbacks | 2025 Age: 33
My Prediction: New York Mets
Fantasy Impact: Over the past three seasons, Joc Pederson has demonstrated notable consistency in two, posting a .274 batting average with 23 home runs, a 23% strikeout rate, and a combined 110 runs plus RBIs. His batted ball profile remains strong, featuring high exit velocities and barrel rates. With a 12.2% walk rate placing him in the 95th percentile, Pederson is particularly valuable in points leagues. However, Chase Field ranks last in home run factor for left-handed hitters over the past three years, potentially limiting his power output if he remains there. By declining his mutual option, Pederson appears to be seeking a multi-year deal, which Arizona may not offer. While his designated hitter-only eligibility limits positional flexibility, his plate discipline offers upside in both categories and points leagues. With the Mets losing free agent power hitters Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez, Pederson could fill a need for a left-handed power bat in their lineup.
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Aroldis Chapman RP | 2024 Team: Pittsburgh Pirates | 2025 Age: 37
My Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Fantasy Impact: At 37, Aroldis Chapman remains a physical specimen, still reaching triple-digit speeds. Though his average velocity has dropped, he ended 2024 as the Pirates’ closer after David Bednar faltered. Chapman’s K/9 and BB/9 rates remain high, but he handled closing duties well in Pittsburgh. After taking over on August 31, he secured 10 saves, blew 1, struck out 16, and walked only 3 over 11 innings. His 4.91 ERA is misleading, skewed by a single rough outing against the Nationals on September 7. With his elite stuff intact and teams still needing a closer, Chapman offers upside in 2025. He’s ranked lower than Jansen or Treinen because recent free-agent deals have cast him in middle relief, not closing. If he secures a closer role, he’s one of the last viable options at RP. Detroit, and potentially Miami or Colorado, might show interest, though the latter two may not be willing to spend.
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Trevor Williams SP | 2024 Team: Washington Nationals | 2025 Age: 33
My Prediction: Washington Nationals
Fantasy Impact: Trevor Williams was a rare bright spot for the Nationals in 2024, posting a 6-1 record over 66.2 innings with a 2.03 ERA and 2.79 FIP. His success followed an adjusted pitch mix, adding a sweeper that held hitters to a .135 average with a 45.9% whiff rate and 38.1% K rate. This also allowed his 89 mph fastball to play up, generating a 24.8% K rate. While he missed 99 games due to a flexor strain, the question for 2025 is whether he can stay healthy and repeat his performance. Full-season ace production may be unlikely, but Williams remains a low-risk option heading into 2025 drafts. Even with expected regression to a 3.50-3.75 ERA, 160 innings, and 120 strikeouts, he offers more reliability than other late-round picks. If he re-signs as a 2025 free agent with the Nationals, he could provide solid value.
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