In this series, I will be going through each position to identify potential value based on Average Draft Position (ADP). The best time to find these ADP values is early in the draft season when there are still a lot of unknowns. This includes players returning from injury, prospects on the verge of a breakout, positional battles within a team, or a player looking for a bounce-back season.
When looking at your team’s construction as you prepare for your drafts, we generally don’t find value in the early rounds. We expect the players we draft high to return their value and when they are combined with multiple players who end up outperforming their draft position, it becomes a winning formula for a successful fantasy team. Let’s dive in and look at some pitchers.
2025 Starting Pitcher ADP Values
Spencer Strider – Atlanta Braves
Strider missed almost the entirety of the 2024 season after suffering from a torn UCL in his throwing arm. It wasn’t all bad news as the tear didn’t require Tommy John surgery and instead, Strider opted for a brace surgery which dramatically improves the recovery timeline. The most recent report is that Strider will participate normally in Spring Training but will likely sit out the first month of the regular season.
When looking at current ADP data (via NFBC), Strider is currently going around pick 140 which, in a 12-team league is around the 12th round. While there is always going to be the risk of re-injury or capped innings, there is a ton of upside here. In his first two seasons in the league, he started 52 games and was one of the best pitchers in baseball posting a 3.46 ERA during that time. On top of that, he led the league with a 2.66 xFIP, 30 wins, 446 strikeouts, and a crazy 37.3% K rate.
At his ADP, he will likely be your fourth starter depending on how you draft. This lowers the risk when you have to place him on the IL and stream his replacement for 4-5 weeks. The risk is more than worth it for me as he is a player who could almost single-handedly win you a head-to-head matchup or in roto leagues, boost production in a big way across multiple categories.
Jeffrey Springs – Oakland Athletics
Springs is now on his fourth major-league team in his young career but don’t let that scare you!
The first three years of his career were as a relief pitcher for the Rangers and Red Sox before landing in Tampa Bay. He was converted to a starter in 2022 and was very impressive, posting a 2.65 ERA, 3.36 xFIP, and 26% K-rate which was supported by a 13.1% swinging strike rate. After Tommy John Surgery derailed his 2023 season, he returned last year in late July and posted nearly identical numbers. Over seven starts, he posted a 3.27 ERA, 3.80 xFIP, and a 26.1% K-rate supported by a 12.9% swinging strike rate.
He is now a top-of-the-rotation option in Oakland and if he can continue to post similar numbers as mentioned above, he is a steal going around pick 243 which is a 20th/21st round grade in a 12-team league. He has Top-20 starting pitcher upside and is penciled in as one of my favorite draft day values in 2025.
Brandon Woodruff – Milwaukee Brewers
A big theme so far with these pitcher ADP values is players coming off injuries going at a discount. While I like all three of these guys, I generally won’t stack them on the same team due to the risk of having a short leash or running into issues in recovery.
Woodruff missed all of the 2024 season after injuring his shoulder and undergoing surgery in late 2023. There are mixed reports on his status and while he is unlikely to be fully ready for Opening Day, he is trending in the right direction and is close to facing live hitters.
That is great news as the last time he was on the mound he was dominant. Over a four-year stretch as a full-time starter with Milwaukee, he posted a 3.02 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, 1.04 WHIP, and 30% K rate.
There are also Vegas bookmakers who have him in their CY Young future odds at +4000 which puts him around SP35-40. The value of this pick is that he is currently being drafted around SP80. Monitor the news and take advantage of the price for as long as possible.
Who are your favorite ADP values this season? Drop some names in the comments below. For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
