Keeping with the sleeper and bust train, it is now time to shift over to shortstops. We already covered the shortstop sleepers and you should definitely check out all of our Sleepers and Busts content after you get done here. Now it is time for one of the most high-profile positions in baseball. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, and Elly De La Cruz are all shortstops, but what should fantasy managers do after them? This article identifies three shortstop busts fantasy managers should be avoiding in 2025 drafts.
2025 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Busts
Willy Adames – SS, SFG
After a slow start to his Major League career, Willy Adames has turned into one of the game’s premier shortstops. Three and a half mostly good seasons with Milwaukee landed him a seven-year $182 million contract from the San Francisco Giants this off-season. Looking to lead his new team back to the playoffs, Adames enters 2025 with high expectations. Fantasy managers are drafting Adames with similar expectations in early drafts. Adames is the 10th shortstop off the board but is the final one before a seemingly large tier drop-off to the options after him. Going inside of the top 75 picks, fantasy baseball managers are going to be disappointed with the production they get from Adames in 2025.
Adames has never hit for much average. His time in Tampa was supposedly impacted by the batter’s eye at Tropicana Field, resulting in high strikeout rates. His strikeout rate dipped some following his move to Milwaukee but his contact rates still settled below average. Last year, Adames whiffed over 29% of the time while posting a zone-contact rate that was over three percent below the league average.
Despite continued struggles to make contact, Adames’ batting average rose by 34 points from 2023 to 2024. Some of that is explained by positive regression to his BABIP. However, it is easy to argue that Adames went from unlucky to very lucky. As a fly-ball hitter, Adames is going to post BABIPs below the league average. Adames’ attack plan is to elevate the ball to tap into his power as consistently as possible. The league average on fly balls and pop-ups last season was .204. Adames, however, hit .274 on these batted ball types. Fly balls and pop-ups account for over 60% of his batted balls. In 2023, Adames hit .220 on similar batted balls, and in 2022 Adames hit .224. Adames will not see the kind of luck he experienced in 2024 roll over into 2025. Fantasy managers should expect significant regression to his batting average this season.
The surprising part of Adames’ game in 2024 was stolen bases. Since being called up to the Major Leagues in 2018, Adames had never stolen more than eight bases in a season. Last year, Adames stole 21. While the league rules certainly play a role in that, not much has changed in Adames’ profile. His sprint speed has declined every season since his promotion and does not figure to start improving now. Then, flip to the team context. The only team that attempted more stolen bases than Milwaukee was Washington. The Brewers stole 217 bases last season while being extremely aggressive. The Giants, meanwhile, stole just 68, ranking second last to just Minnesota. The Giants will not encourage a high rate of stolen bases from a player with fringe speed. Fantasy managers should expect his stolen bases to settle down around 10 as opposed to a repeat of 21 steals.
Adames is going to draw most of his fantasy value from his power. 30+ home runs in two of the past three season sis certainly a good place to start. However, even that is at risk entering 2025. San Francisco is a pitcher’s park. According to Statcast Park Factors, Milwaukee is the seventh most friendly home run park for right-handed batters. San Francisco ranks 28th. The park factor score for homers drops from 111 in Milwaukee down to 78 in San Francisco. That is a 33% decline. This is not how the math works but if you remove 33% of Adames’ home runs, he would have finished with only 21 homers last year. Every category in Adames’ profiles is at risk for regression in 2025. He is an easy player to fade and a prime bust candidate.
Xander Bogaerts – SS, SDP
For those keeping track at home, this is the third straight season Xander Bogaerts has made one of my bust pieces. Bogaerts, who will be entering his age 32 season, is coming off one of the worst professional years of his career. The writing was on the wall, but to see it come true can still be disheartening. Bogaerts’ 95 wRC+ is his lowest since he was a rookie back in 2014. Injuries limited Bogaerts to 111 games last year yet his fantasy value seems to be going unchanged. His name value is keeping his draft price inflated up at SS15 in drafts. This is way too high for Bogaerts’ current level of production.
Bogaerts’ offensive production was never going to be the same once he left Boston. This was the argument in 2023, and again the argument last season after Bogaerts managed to luck his way into a strong 2023 finish. Bogaerts thrived in Fenway using the Green Monster to his advantage. Petco meanwhile does not offer Bogaerts the same opportunities. While Bogaerts’ production dipped as a whole, he was especially bad at home. Bogaerts’ slash line at Petco Park last season was .246/.294/.369. From 2018-2022, Bogaerts’ average on pulled-balls was .426. Since joining the Padres’ his pull-side batting average has been down at .354 and .329 respectively. Without the Green Monster to help inflate his batting average, fantasy managers should expect Bogaerts’ batting average to remain down moving forward.
The real issue for Bogaerts is the disappearance of his power. Sticking with the theme, the Green Monster helped Bogaerts’ power to play up to levels that turned him into a fantasy star. From 2018-2022, Bogaerts slugged .773 on pulled balls. With the Padres, this number sits at .611. Since peaking at 9.7% in 2021, Bogaerts’ barrel rate has continued declining all the way down to 5.1% in 2024. His average exit velocity ranks in the 28th percentile, his barrel rate ranks in the 21st percentile, and his bat speed ranks in the 28th percentile. He is not a power hitter and counting on him for any substantial home run totals in fantasy would be a mistake.
What does drafting Bogaerts gain your fantasy team? Sure, fantasy managers will add a flashy name to their roster, but his offensive production continues diminishing. Bogaerts has average speed, below-average power, and a batting average that no longer sets him apart. There are plenty of options going after him in drafts that offer far more upside with a similar floor. Even if you are considering taking Bogaerts as your second baseman, you should look toward other options. For a third straight season, the prediction is that Bogaerts is labeled a bust at the end of the year. Time will tell if he is included in this article again next season.
Trea Turner – SS, PHI
Picking Phillies’ players as bust candidates is never enjoyable. Hopefully, this is one, I am wrong on. Turner’s two seasons in Philadelphia have been all over the place. His first season got off to a terrible start before Turner got white-hot in August helping him finish with respectable numbers. His second season was the exact opposite. Turner slashed .349/.395/.546 in the first half before slashing .247/.286/.401 in the second half. The inconsistencies in Turner’s game are growing larger. Now might be the best time to get out on Turner before the age cliff swallows him up. Even at a slightly deflated draft price compared to other seasons (SS6), Turner is still likely to disappoint fantasy managers.
Speed is the most consistent part of Turner’s game. Turner has some of the best speed in baseball and has posted incredible stolen base totals. These totals seemingly disappeared last season as he stole less than 20 bases for the first time in his career. Part of that is certainly attributed to a hamstring injury Turner suffered in May. While a full off-season will help Turner health-wise, it is fair to wonder if we could start seeing more injuries pop up. Turner turns 32 in June. With such wear and tear on his legs, it is fair to assume one of two scenarios. Turner could run less to avoid another injury (what we saw in the second half last year), or the soft-tissue injuries could grow more common. Rarely do we see elite stolen base totals from players as they age. Turner is an outlier, but it is still concerning.
The other issue with Turner is how volatile the rest of his profile has grown. Turner’s batted ball data has declined significantly over the past two seasons. His max EV per season has dropped from the 112 range down to the 110 range. His barrel rate has dropped from 7.5-9.5% down to 6.9% last year. Turner’s struggles to handle four-seam fastballs also rolled over from 2023 to 2024. Early in his career, Turner demolished four-seam fastballs. From 2017-2022, Turner hit .318 with a .576 slug against four-seamers. Since joining Philadelphia in 2023, Turner is batting just .241 with a .451 slug. A decline in being able to hit velocity is a common sign of aging amongst Major League hitters. This is yet another red flag in Turner’s profile.
There is no part of me that wants to be right with this pick. Turner has multiple warning signs of a player who is facing a steep decline in his offensive production. Fantasy managers are still paying a hefty price to draft him to their teams when there are better options available. Be cautious of drafting Turner in 2025.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
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