Welcome back golf fans. In this article, I will break down the courses, look at the stats to focus on in our models, and then go over a few players who should be on our betting cards this week. Let’s get started with the 2025 Waste Management Phoenix Open!
This week the PGA Tour heads to Arizona and TPC Scottsdale for the fan-favourite Waste Management Phoenix Open. The buzz obviously obviously comes from the wild Par 3, 16th hole enclosed by grandstands with some 20,000 fans. The other benefit has always been the stronger fields and despite being sandwiched between two signature events, includes four of the Top 10 and 31 of the Top 50 players in the Official World Golf Rankings.
Let’s jump in and take a look at the course, top stats, and some best bets for this week.
The Courses: TPC Scottsdale
With last week in the books, we are officially done with multi-course rotations for the 2025 season. That brings us to this week as the WM Phoenix Open is once again hosted at TPC Scottsdale. The course is a Par 71 coming in at 7,261 yards with four Par 3’s, 11 Par 4’s, and three Par 5’s. The Par 3’s offer a nice mix of distances(163, 183, 192, 215), and even the Par 4’s have an even mix with one under 400 yards, five between 400 and 450 yards, and five more between 450 and 500 yards. The three Par 5’s are where a lot of scoring will come from as they are all around 550 yards and play as three of the four easiest holes on the course.
The driver will be on display this week as the fairways have friendly landing areas and the rough doesn’t play tough in most places. The only time players will get in trouble is if they put the ball in the native areas covered with sand, rock, cacti, and not to mention water hazards. Those water hazards also act as a strong defense against approach shots throughout the course, as well.
The breaking point at TPC Scottsdale comes in the closing stretch for players. It starts with the Par 5, 15th hole with water stretching all along the left side and then surrounding the green. Up next is the fully enclosed, stadium 16th hole where it is always chaos. Players then exit the stadium and head to the driveable Par 4, risk-reward, 17th hole where we see everything from eagles to double-bogeys and anything in between. Capping off the closing stretch is the Par 4, 18th hole with water on the left and bunkers on both sides of the landing zone forcing players to pick their poison off the tee. All in all, this closing stretch gives us a wide range of potential outcomes and puts a ton of pressure on the leaderboard making for some very exciting golf.
Key Stats: Ball Striking and Course History
Course History vs. Current Form is always a topic of conversation in the fantasy golf and golf betting industry. I try to always include some weight on both metrics in my models but there are weeks where I give a bump to one or the other. This week, course history gets the bump as it is one of the highest-rated courses on Tour in terms of predicably using the metric. While it can’t exactly be quantified, it likely comes from the mental capacity of players who can handle the chaos that is the Phoenix Open. Either way, I will be weighing course history higher this week.
At the top of my stats model this week is Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. I will look not only at recent form in that area but also historically here at TPC Scottsdale to coincide with course history that I mentioned above. Off the tee, I am looking for a combination of distance and accuracy(Total Driving) and will also closely look at Good Drive % with the roughs being not as penal this week. From an approach standpoint, I will add some weight to mid-iron accuracy via Proximity stat.
Best Bets: WM Phoenix Open
World #1 Scottie Scheffler is back in the field again this week and the 2022/2023 back-to-back winner comes in at +300 this week. If betting him this week, I will be parlaying the outright as a LIV/PGA double or even possibly with the Super Bowl. The low number definitely helps some guys in the tiers below and that is where I will be starting my card this week.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600)
Matsuyama joins Scheffler as the only players in the field who have not only tallied two wins here at TPC Scottsdale but did it in back-to-back fashion. Matsuyama’s wins came back in 2016 and 2017 but he also returns with a long history of success here, as well. Outside of a withdrawal in 2018, he has made the cut in 10 trips with two wins, five Top 10s, and ranks 5th in SG: Total, 4th in SG: Ball Striking, and Top 10 in both Par 4 and 5 scoring.
He is coming off two sub-par performances at the Farmers and Pebble Beach but is a proven winner with two victories in his last seven events. He also shines statistically ranking 3rd in SG: Tee to Green, 5th in SG: Ball Striking, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, and while he is only 39th in Birdies Gained, he is 9th in Opportunities Gained.
Put it all together and Matsuyama should once again contend for a win here in the desert.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+6600)
This pick is heavily reliant on course history as Fitz has made the cut here in all three trips with finishes of T10, T29, and a T15 last year. In those three events, he ranks 8th in SG: Tee to Green, 20th in SG: ball Striking, 11th in Par 4 scoring, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, and 5th in Birdies gained.
The form has been less than impressive as he followed up his very impressive 2023 season by tallying just three Top 10’s during the 2024 season and two events into the 2025 season. The putter is his strong suit so if he can find the greens this week could be a mid-long shot winner. I will also be betting him in the Top 10 market.
Sam Stevens (+8000)
Going down the board, I like taking a shot with players on the rise and Stevens fits the mold. He has progressed each season on Tour and is coming off a solid, not great season where he made 25 of 30 cuts. He has carried that momentum into 2025 making four straight cuts including playing some of his best golf recently with a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open and a T17 in last weeks Signature Event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
He has backed up those performances with some eye-popping stats as he ranks(in this field) 4th in SG: Tee to Green, 5th in SG: Ball Striking, 11th in Proximity from 150-175, and 22nd in Good Drives gained. It is also positive that he played here for the first time a year ago and ended up with a T28 finish. If he can get the putter going this week, he could definitely contend for his first career win. I also like betting him in the Top 10 and Top 20 markets.
