Fantasy baseball managers face many pitfalls in drafts, including picking a player too early, missing out on someone more productive. On many occasions where this happens, fantasy managers base their opinions of these overrated players on their production in the prior season or offseason news.
Below are my top three overrated pitchers ahead of the 2025 baseball season, along with reasons why you should avoid them at cost in your drafts. I used NFBC ADP over the last 10 days as of writing (2/19) for the analysis.
3 Overrated Pitchers for 2025 Fantasy Baseball
Jacob deGrom – SP TEX
Over the last 10 days, fantasy baseball managers have drafted Jacob deGrom as SP11 at pick 50. This makes deGrom one of fantasy baseball’s most overrated pitchers.
Since 2021, deGrom has totaled 197 innings. Those innings have been elite: 14 strikeouts per nine, 1 walk per nine, and a 2.01 ERA. Last season, Logan Gilbert, Seth Lugo, Logan Webb, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Corbin Burnes, Jose Berrios, Tarik Skubal, and George Kirby tossed 190 innings or more.
Of those pitchers, Cease, Burnes, Wheeler, and Skubal are the only ones drafted ahead of deGrom. Draft philosophy comes into play at this point. Fantasy managers must decide to take a starter who could toss 180 or more innings with at least top-25 starting pitcher potential (minus Berrios and maybe Lugo and Webb)? Or choose a pitcher that may see anywhere from 30 to 130 innings (his projections go as high as 152 IP, but come on…), and dealt with injuries every year since 2021?
If you spend a top-50 pick on deGrom, you essentially have to expect to fill anywhere from 50 to 140 innings, either due to him getting injured again, or the limitations to his innings because of prior injuries.
Just for fun, which pitcher would you rather have?
Using OOPSY projections, Pitcher A projects for 132 IP, a 10.9 K/9, a 2.2 BB/9, a 3.01 ERA, and a 3.18 FIP. Pitcher B projects for 142 IP, a 10.9 K/9, a 2.7 BB/9, a 2.94 ERA, and a 3.15 FIP.
Pitcher A is deGrom, and Pitcher B is Tyler Glasnow, whose ADP is 102, as SP27.
Jacob deGrom is overrated and too much of a gamble to take at pick 50.
Roki Sasaki – SP LAD
Another one of the most overrated pitchers is Roki Sasaki. He makes for a huge gamble in drafts this season, but owns a 100 ADP, as SP24. The hype is real – Sasaki put up crazy numbers in Japan. On the other hand, he carries some injury risk and should see an innings limit, thus limiting his fantasy value.
Sasaki dealt with an oblique injury in 2023 that limited him to 91 innings. A 2024 shoulder injury limited him to 111 innings. The shoulder injury clearly affected his production, resulting in fewer strikeouts, more walks, and a drop in velocity.
Sasaki and deGrom have some similarities beyond their talent level. They are both lean-framed flamethrowers, with deliveries that put a ton of stress on their arms. We do not know if Sasaki has totally overcome his shoulder issues. We also may have seen his ceiling in Japan. The simple fact that we do not know much should give fantasy managers pause in drafting him.
Sasaki also presents a similar conundrum to deGrom in reckoning with the quality versus quantity of innings. Projections are all over the place for Sasaki, but his best come from Steamer. Steamer projects him for 138 IP, 11.6 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, and a 3.31 ERA.
Using the same system, Sonny Gray projects for more innings, a better BB/9 rate, a 3.41 ERA, and two fewer strikeouts per nine innings. He is SP36 at pick 122. I would rather draft Josh Naylor as my first baseman or Riley Green as my OF2 around pick 100 instead of Sasaki. Then I would grab Gray a round later, which is significantly better value.
Hunter Greene – SP CIN
Another pitcher I’m avoiding is Hunter Greene. Fantasy baseball managers have put too much stock in his 2024 performance, which has inflated his draft stock for this season.
In 237 innings between 2022-2023, Greene averaged 11.9 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, a 74% LOB rate, a 31% GB rate, a 15% HR/FB rate, and a 4.62 ERA, 3.81 xFIP. In 2024, those numbers looked like this: 10.1 K/9, 3.41 BB/9, 80% LOB, 34% GB, 7% HR/FB, 2.75 ERA, 4.19 xFIP.
This means that Greene saw a downturn in his strikeout rate, without improving much in his walk or groundball rate. He also saw a huge uptick in his LOB%, while also posting a HR/FB rate less than half of his career norm. The strand rate and HR/FB rate are largely out of his control, which means he seemed to have been very lucky in those aspects. That clearly had a positive effect on his ERA.
On top of that, his 4.19 xFIP and 3.81 SIERA were both a run higher than his actual ERA. The data shows that based on things in his control, he should have been a much worse pitcher.
Hunter Brown projects for better numbers across the board (except for K/9) according to Steamer, with comparable IP projections, but goes about a round later. The same goes for:
- Freddy Peralta
- Sonny Gray
- Justin Steele
- Carlos Rodon
- Robbie Ray
- Jared Jones
- Ranger Suarez
- Jack Flaherty
- Cristopher Sanchez
- Tanner Bibee
- Zach Eflin
- Nathan Eovaldi
- Yusei Kikuchi
- Reynaldo Lopez
Steamer projects all of these pitchers for at least 160 IP, and better BB/9 rates, ERAs, and FIPs than Greene. At pick 101, as SP26, Greene is overvalued and overrated.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
