I am doing a series where I offer up three fantasy baseball thoughts for every MLB team. I’ll take a look at under-the-radar stats, playing time projections, projected roles, and off-season news to try and highlight the nuggets that might help you in your 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. We’ll do this thing in alphabetical order, and next up are three thoughts for the 2025 New York Mets.
3 Fantasy Baseball Thoughts for the 2025 New York Mets
Give Francisco Alvarez Another Chance
After he finished 2023 with a flurry, there were serious expectations for Francisco Alvarez entering 2024. He was expected to take the next step, but it’s easy to forget that he’s still just 23 years old. Alvarez is still adjusting to life in the big leagues, but as a catcher, his burden is that much higher.
Health was also an issue as Alvarez struggled last season. He played in just 100 games but improved his average from .209 to .237. The problem though is that his home runs went from 25 to 11 with his ISO dropping from .228 to .166. With 47 RBI, he did come up big at times with runners on base, but overall, nothing went right.
Alvarez saw significant dips in all of his batted ball metrics, and that doesn’t fit with his skill set. After a healthy off-season to prepare for 2025, I would expect a rebound. Whether you can truly buy low on Alvarez is a different story, but I would certainly try. He is one of the more prolific young catchers in the game.
Mark Vientos Isn’t Going to Slow Down
It took a little bit of time, but last year, Mark Vientos found his groove at the major league level. His power upside was on display and it doesn’t appear that the genie is going to be headed back inside the bottle. It feels like a broken record saying it in 2025, but we are going to have to live with the strikeouts. Last year, a 29.7% strikeout rate didn’t seem to negatively impact Vientos as he still hit .266. That was boosted by a .324 ISO and his a .248 xBA does appear to be more reasonable. But considering the power production we are getting from Vientos, no one is truly concerned.
In 454 plate appearances, Vientos hit 27 home runs to go along with 71 RBI. This season, the expectation is that he will consistently reside more in the middle of the batting order, so that, along with a full season’s slate of games, will boost his RBI total. There is nothing to suggest his home run totals will be slowing down either, so if you want to get a little bold, we could be looking at a 40/100 performance.
Vientos’ .249 ISO supports that power production as did his 14.1% barrel rate and 46.6% hard-hit rate. If he adds first-base eligibility, then even better.
Take a Step Back with David Peterson
Yes, David Peterson did win 10 of his 21 starts last year. The left-hander also had some strong performances both down the stretch and in the postseason for the Mets. Being excited about the southpaw heading into 2025 is understandable, but to what degree?
Peterson had a 2.90 ERA last year, but some of the metrics don’t back up that level of success. Both his xERA (4.58) and FIP (3.67) warn of trouble coming around the corner. To what degree though, is uncertain. Regardless, Peterson will still have fantasy value in 2025, but not at the top tier.
A large reason for his success is that he kept the ball in the park. After allowing 1.30 home runs per nine innings in 2023, that dropped to just 0.60 last year. His BABIP also regressed to the mean at .293, so what we saw from Peterson was more reasonable. He continues to force groundballs, 50.1%, so that ultimately helps to limit the damage. The problem is that with a walk rate of 3.42 per nine innings, there is sometimes more damage than we would like.
From a fantasy perspective, it’s also troubling to see his strikeout rate decrease to 7.51 per nine innings. That is a three-strikeout drop from the year prior but could speak to a change in approach. Overall, Peterson doesn’t throw especially hard as he averages 93.2 miles per hour on his fastball. However, he does keep the ball on the ground, and he avoids being barreled up at a high level.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
