A lot of what fantasy sports are is taking calculated risks. As fantasy managers, we come up with scenarios in our heads where if only this were to happen, then player x would be unstoppable. Fantasy baseball drafts can feel chaotic with everything happening so fast. A common outcome is veteran players falling early in drafts due to their appeal wearing off. Why go for the 31-year-old trusted fantasy asset when you can take the fun and exciting 25-year-old with potential? Balancing ceiling, projected production, floor, age, and injury risk are all key factors in building a championship team. If you created a stable enough floor early, going after high-upside picks later on could pay off in a big way. The article below identifies one player at each position that possesses league-winning upside going after pick 150 in drafts.
Potential League Winning Fantasy Baseball Picks
Catcher: Ivan Herrera, STL
I want to preface this piece right from the start. This article is not my advocating for drafting a specific player. Every pick is team build-dependent. The purpose of this article is to find guys late in drafts who have the potential to turn into elite fantasy assets if everything goes right. That is what Ivan Herrera represents. Herrera signed with the Cardinals out of Panama all the way back in 2016. He made his Major League debut in 202 but has never played in more than 72 Major League games in a season. With the team shifting Willson Contreras to first base, playing time is seemingly up for grabs at catcher. If Herrera wins the job, he could finish as one of the best catchers in fantasy.
The team limited Herrera’s playing time last season but he played well when given an opportunity. He hit .301 with five homers and five stolen bases. His 600 PA pace was 12 homers and 12 steals. Not bad, but far from league-winning. However, fantasy managers love what is under the hood in Herrera’s profile. Herrera hits the ball hard. He posted a nine percent barrel rate with a max EV of 112.4 mph. He also hits the ball consistently. Both his chase and whiff rates were better than the league average. Herrera also hits a ton of line drives. A 38.2 sweet spot rate backs up his 27% line drive rate. While a .370 BABIP is unsustainable, Herrera should continue to post high batting averages throughout his career.
If a breakout is coming, Herrera is going to see his luck improve in the power department. Only five home runs on 16 barrels make Herrera one of the more unlucky hitters in all of baseball. His luck should shift in 2025, and there is also room for more upside. Herrera hits a lot of balls on the ground and only pulled the ball 36% of the time last year. He projects better as a doubles monster, but with an increased pull rate could see his home run totals explode.
Herrera’s expected stats paint a picture of what he could become with regular playing time. A .293 xBA and .453 xSLG combined with 8-12 stolen bases is elite fantasy production from the catcher position. He will need to prove he can handle the starting role defensively. If he can do that, watch out. A ceiling projection for Herrera in 2025 is somewhere around .290, with 22 home runs and 12 stolen bases. That would certainly qualify as league-winning based on his ADP of C19 at pick 243.
First Base: Tyler Soderstrom, ATH
This is not the first time, and it will not be the last time Tyler Soderstrom is featured in one of my articles this offseason. Soderstrom first appeared in my first base sleeper article, which you can check out here. The former first-round pick by the Athletics has transitioned nicely from catcher to first base in recent seasons. Now he is looking to cement himself as a cornerstone in the A’s rebuild. With 106 Major League games under his belt, he is primed to put it all together in 2025. His current draft price makes him an easy option if you are looking for a league winner late in your fantasy baseball drafts.
When looking for league-winning potential at first base, power is a necessity. At a position where 30 home runs feels routine, clearing that mark is an easy threshold when determining how much upside a player has. Soderstrom hit nine home runs in 213 plate appearances last season. Extrapolating that out over 600 plate appearances lands him at 25. Not quite the 30 threshold we were looking for. Digging in, Soderstrom took some time to settle in last season. However, once he did, he exploded. Soderstrom hit eight home runs in his final 145 plate appearances last season. His 600 PA pace over that portion would have been 33 home runs. He posted a barrel rate of 14.6% with an average exit velocity of 91.9 mph. Both of those numbers were even better over his final 145 plate appearances.
Soderstrom checks all the boxes for a breakout.
- Former first-round pick: check
- Former top prospect: check
- Size and physical build: check
- Great batted ball data: check
- Young with potential: check
- Improving stats with more Major League experience: check
Take all of those boxes, and then factor in the Athletics playing their home games in a Triple-A stadium. Soderstrom has the kind of raw power that makes 40 home runs possible. In a small ballpark, even more than that is in the realm of possibilities for 2025. Soderstrom already showed significant improvement down the stretch of last season. Now, he will get a chance to play every day in just his age-23 season. In drafts, Soderstrom is being taken as 1B26 outside of the top 300 picks. This makes him an easy player to target if you are looking for an upside late. There is league-winning power potential in his bat.
Second Base: Jackson Holliday, BAL
Flashback to one year ago, and Jackson Holliday was labeled by almost everybody as a ca n’t-miss prospect. The first overall pick from the 2022 draft tore his way through the Minor Leagues. He hit .323 with 12 homers and 24 stolen bases in his first full professional season playing at four different levels. The hype was off the charts. Now, after just 208 Major League plate appearances, people are already changing their minds.
Granted, Holliday’s first Major League stint did not go as planned. Holliday hit just .189 with five homers, four steals, and a 33.2% strikeout rate. Simply put, Holliday looked overmatched. Frankly, there is nothing wrong with that. Holliday had just one professional season under his belt, and he was 20 years old. Not even old enough to drink a beer. The lights got bright, the competition got better, and Holliday struggled. Not every prospect comes up to have instant success. Holliday will be 21 for the entirety of the 2025 season, which is younger than most of the top prospects in baseball entering the season. Fluency in opinions is never a bad thing when more information and data become available. However, if you were in on calling Holliday a generational prospect, 208 bad plate appearances should not change your opinion.
To be fair, it was not all bad. Holliday had two different stings in the Major Leagues. The first was atrocious. The second was not great, but Holliday hit .218 with all of his home runs and stolen bases. His strikeout rate dropped to 29.7% and he seemed to be more comfortable at the plate. His 600 plate appearance pace during his second Major League stint was 17 homers and 14 steals. Not bad for a rookie. Holliday also posted a barrel rate of over eight percent with a sprint speed in the 95th percentile. He has plenty of raw power and elite speed that could turn him into a top tier fantasy asset.
Post-hype sleepers are a popular group in fantasy baseball. This makes it a bit puzzling as to why Holliday is not generating more buzz this draft season. He is the projected starting second baseman and should have a much longer leash this year. His draft pedigree, Minor League numbers, and raw tools provide significant upside. Holliday’s 2025 ceiling likely falls in the .270 with 20 homers and 30 stolen bases. He can be drafted as the 2B18 around pick 220. Getting Holliday’s upside at that draft cost could help set your team up for a championship run in 2025.
Shortstop: Ceddanne Rafaela- BOS
Scrolling through the list of shortstops going after pick 150, there were a few names that were in consideration. The first was Zach Neto, but he was already included in my SS Sleepers article and will be included in the My Guys article coming out in March. So, in a search for upside, there was one surprising name that stuck out. To reach league-winning status at shortstop, a player needs both speed and power. The one player who checked both of those boxes is Ceddanne Rafaela.
Rafaela has been in the Red Sox farm system since signing with them back in 2017. His professional career really seemed to take off in 2022, when he began posting incredible power and speed numbers. He was so impressive in Spring Training last year that the Red Sox handed him a $50 million contract before he played a Major League game. The team used him as a Swiss army knife, playing him all over the infield and outfield. He has maintained shortstop and outfield fantasy eligibility for 2025 and has the upside that could vault him into the upper echelon of fantasy players.
Despite his 5’9” frame, Rafaela generates significant power. His home run total from 2024 was underwhelming. Only 15 home runs are not enough to turn into a league-winning player. However, Rafaela had multiple Minor League seasons with 20+ home runs and saw his batted ball data improve as the season moved along. From August 25 forward, Rafaela barreled the ball up 14.3% of the time. Unfortunately, his 19 barrels over that period turned into just two home runs. You can see in the rolling chart below how his power improved:
To go with improving power, Rafaela also has great speed. His sprint speed ranked in the 87th percentile in baseball last season. He stole 19 bases but stole 30+ in back-to-back seasons in the Minor Leagues. Although his stolen base success rate was not very good, Rafaela has the speed to be an elite base stealer. With a full season under his belt, he should have a better feel for running at the Major League level in 2025.
Rafaela has plenty of risk in his profile. Despite the increased barrel rate, he does not hit the ball very hard. He also is incredibly aggressive with a ton of swing and miss in his game. Rafaela did not work a single walk in his final 142 plate appearances of the season. Hard to steal bases if you cannot get on base. That being said, Rafaela has the skill set to turn into a league-winning player. 20-25 home run potential with the speed to steal 35 bases. He is going as SS19 in drafts at pick 173. He is risky, but if you are shooting for upside, Rafaela has plenty of it.
Third Base: Christopher Morel, TBR
What kind of upside article would this be if Christopher Morel was not included? Morel’s skillset has been tantalizing fantasy baseball managers for years now. Morel debuted with the Cubs back in 2022 and hit 16 homers with 10 steals in just 113 games. Morel only appeared in 107 games for the Cubs in 2023 but still managed to hit an impressive 26 home runs. Unfortunately, the floor fell out from underneath him last season as Morel’s batting average sank below the Mendoza Line. A midseason trade to Tampa did not help change Morel’s fortune, as his wRC+ dropped to 59 with the Rays. Now, Morel will need to prove himself worthy of a starting job.
The issue with Morel’s profile is well documented. Morel’s hit tool is suspect at best. His whiff rate was over 34% last season, and he has never hit better than .247 in a season. Even still, Morel’s upside is hard to argue. Morel has posted a double-digit barrel rate each year of his Major League career. His bat speed ranks in the 95th percentile, and his home runs are highlight-reel worthy.
Although Morel’s numbers got worse following his midseason trade to Tampa, it represents a much better park for his profile. In terms of Statcast Park Factors, Wrigley Field ranks 21st in home runs for right-handed batters. Not only is Morel moving to Tampa, which ranks as much more hitter-friendly, but he is going to be playing his home games in the Yankees Minor League stadium. This has a chance to be one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball. For all the talk about how the Athletics playing in Sacramento could benefit their hitters, the Rays deserve the same attention. Morel has 30+ home run power, regardless of the stadium. His home ballpark for 2025 raises that ceiling even further.
Much like Rafaela, Morel is a risky profile. The Rays could opt to give other young players a chance if Morel does not start making more contact. However, this is already baked into his draft price. Morel is going as the 3B23 at pick 277. He is going to gain OF eligibility giving him second base, third base, and outfield for the 2025 season. There is 35- home run potential in his bat. He could be a league-winning value at his current draft price.
Outfield: Parker Meadows, DET
Although Parker Meadows was never viewed in the same category as Jackson Holliday, the story is similar. Meadows was drafted 44th overall by Detroit back in 2018. He worked his way slowly through the Tigers’ system but started putting up big-time numbers during the 2022 season. Always viewed as a toolsy prospect, everything seemed to finally click as Meadows began posting strong home run and stolen base numbers. He got his chance at the end of the 2023 season but hit just .232 in 145 plate appearances. Things got worse to start 2024, as Meadows was batting .096 prior to his demotion to Triple-A on May 6.
Meadows’ fantasy value was nonexistent following that demotion. However, like many young hitters, Meadows just needed some time to adjust to Major League pitching. Meadows was recalled from Triple-A on July 5 and looked like a completely different hitter. In his final 213 plate appearances to end the season, Meadows hit .299 with seven home runs and six stolen bases. That is a 600 PA pace of 20 homers and 17 steals. Even after that dreadful start to the season, Meadows still finished with a 111 wRC+. He has reasserted himself as the team’s center fielder moving forward and should be in for a big 2025. His Process+ rolling chart shows just how drastic the improvements were following his recall.
Meadows’ resurgence is a reminder to all fantasy managers that success is not always instantaneous. Major League pitchers are light-years ahead of any competition these batters face in the Minor Leagues. Sometimes, it takes a hitter time to adjust and work on the flaws in their game. Meadows has a very strong profile for fantasy managers. He has good power, elite speed, a smooth swing path, and a patient approach. He is the perfect blend of floor and ceiling with the chance to turn into an extremely productive asset. Over a full season, 25 home runs and stolen bases is not out of the cards for Meadows. He is going as the OF43 off the board, outside of the top 175 picks. He has league-winning potential and is a great draft pick that late.
Starting Pitcher: Max Scherzer, TOR
The feeling is that Max Scherzer’s best days are behind him. At 40 years old, that is probably the truth. However, are we really sure? Scherzer pitched in just nine games for the Rangers last season but still managed to post an ERA of 3.95. Despite his surface-level strikeout rate dipping, Scherzer still generated a whiff rate of at least 22% on all four of his primary pitches. Both his slider and curveball generated whiff rates of 40%. Scherzer has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past decade. There is at least a chance he has one more great season left in him.
Digging into Scherzer’s profile, there is a lot to like. He posted a whiff rate of 29.2% and a chase rate of 36.4%. The 36.4% chase rate was the highest of Scherzer’s career. While Scherzer’s velocity has taken small steps backward, he is clearly still a difficult at-bat for opposing batters. Part of the reason for this is Scherzer’s great control. Scherzer locates all of his pitches well and routinely works ahead of hitters. His first-pitch strike rate was 4.5% above the league average. His 5.6% walk rate would have ranked 12th in baseball amongst qualified pitchers if Scherzer had thrown enough innings.
Durability is going to be the biggest question in 2025. Scherzer threw just 43.1 innings last season and is approaching 3000 innings pitched in his career. The thing is, the health risk is already more than baked into Scherzer’s ADP. Scherzer is currently going as the pitcher 147 in drafts outside of the top 450 picks. Even if you just look at his ADP since signing in Toronto, he is still going as pitcher 118 at pick 307. Scherzer is going behind pitchers like David Festa, who is not even guaranteed an Opening Day rotation spot. Scherzer has a track record of being one of the best pitchers in baseball. If you are shooting for league-winning upside late in drafts, circle Scherzer on your draft board.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
