The popular saying in fantasy sports is that you cannot win your league on draft day, but you can certainly lose it. The premise of this being that by missing on your early picks, you have set a team foundation that cannot withstand the length of the season. My last article looked at league winning players. These are guys who are not necessarily my favorite picks, but are guys with the kind of upside that could take your team to the next level. All of those picks were going outside of the top 150 in drafts. This article looks at league losers. One player at each position who is going inside of the top 150 picks in drafts and will leave fantasy managers feeling disappointed at the end of 2025.
Early Picks to Avoid in 2025 Fantasy Baseball Drafts
Catcher: JT Realmuto, PHI
JT Realmuto has been one of the most reliable and durable catchers in baseball. Realmuto has been a workhorse behind the plate since being acquired by Philadelphia prior to the 2019 season. From 2019-2023, Realmuto caught 4,677 innings. Second on the list over that span was Martin Maldonado who was 471 innings behind Realmuto. The next fantasy-relevant name on the list is Will Smith who caught 1,078 fewer innings than Realmuto. Realmuto’s availability was an advantage for fantasy managers who were able to roster just one catcher for the entirety of the season. His ability to accumulate counting stats was unmatched landing him consistently toward the top of fantasy leaderboards.
Catching that many innings also takes a toll on a player’s body. That finally caught up to Realmuto in 2024. A knee injury limited Realmuto to just 99 games last season, the fewest games he has ever played over a full season. With an inability to accumulate counting stats, Realmuto’s production felt much more pedestrian. He hit .266, which is not bad, but is far from great. He hit 14 homers and finished with just 47 RBIs. Entering his age-34 season, the Phillies have already come out and stated that they play to get Realmuto off his feet more to preserve his health. In addition to more designated off-days, there have been talks about playing him in the outfield on occasion as well as DH. The bottom line is that the Phillies recognize that they cannot expect Realmuto to be in the lineup for 135 games in 2025. Fantasy baseball managers need to have the same expectations.
Not only are Realmuto’s counting stats going to come down, but his production has also dropped off in recent seasons. The ability to hit velocity is one of the best signs of an aging curve. From 2019-2022, Realmuto accumulated a run value of 26 against four-seam fastballs. For the past two seasons, Realmuto has been -14 against four-seamers. Realmuto is not a spring chicken. His wRC+ over the past two seasons is just 105. That is the same wRC+ as Michael Conforto over that time.
The other main reason to push Realmuto up draft boards is his stolen base track record. Realmuto has been a consistent threat on the basepaths which is rare for catchers. This ended in 2024 as Realmuto stole just two bases. The knee injury certainly played a part in this, but Realmuto is also going to be 34. The Phillies are not going to keep pushing him to steal bases if it could impact his health. Fantasy managers can no longer expect 15+ stolen bases from Realmuto moving forward. All of these things add up to form a league-losing pick. Realmtuo’s price is discounted slightly from previous years but he is still going as the 10th catcher off the board at pick 130. There are better options for fantasy managers and relying on him would be a mistake.
First Base: Spencer Steer, CIN
Spencer Steer was great in 2023. Steer provided the Reds with defensive versatility and much-needed offensive production. His eligibility was a nice boost for fantasy managers and he was once again a great fantasy asset in 2024. Steer joined the 20/20 club with 20 homers and 25 stolen bases last season while continuing to serve in a super-utility role for the Reds. With two useful fantasy seasons, Steer is going at pick 110 in drafts. Drafting Steer here is one of the bigger mistakes fantasy baseball managers could make. He is an easy fade at his draft price and should be avoided at all costs.
For starters, Steer was useful in fantasy. However, his fantasy production does not keep him in a lineup spot. Steer hit just .225 and posted a wRC+ of only 96. Matt McLain is coming back, Christian Encarnacion-Strand is coming back, Noelvi Marte is trying to earn playing time, and the team added Gavin Lux. The competition for playing time is increasing in Cincinnati. Steer’s offensive production was below average last season and his defense is not much better. Despite his versatility, Steer is not particularly good at any defensive position. He finished last season with -4 outs above average and a WAR of 1.3 despite playing in 158 games. Amongst 129 qualified hitters, Steer ranked 105th in WAR tied with Jesse Winker. The Reds could consider using Steer as a utility player instead of giving him everyday lineup time if his offensive struggles continue.
Even from a fantasy perspective, there is nothing optimistic about his profile. Steer is fast, but is far from elite speed according to his sprint speed. The 25 bases he stole last season are his ceiling. His stolen base totals should be expected to decrease in 2025. Steer also saw 82.4% of his barrels go for home runs last season which is well above the league average. Great American Ballpark certainly helps with that but Steer’s batted ball data leaves plenty to be desired. Even Steer’s counting stats are likely to come down as he is unlikely to play in 158 games again in 2025.
Then, there is this shoulder injury. Steer has been dealing with a shoulder injury since last season and is still reportedly recovering from it. He is still dealing with soreness and the Reds have come out and stated they will likely have to use him at DH early in the season. For a player with already suspect batted ball data to be dealing with a shoulder injury is a major red flag. This could linger throughout 2025 and result in Steer’s numbers dipping even further. There are too many red flags and unknowns in Steer’s profile to be counting on him as a reliable fantasy asset. That is what his draft price requires making him an easy player to avoid in fantasy drafts.
Second Base: Jose Altuve, HOU
As players age, their production tends to fall off, but their names still hold plenty of value. Everybody knows who Jose Altuve is. He has been at the center of everything for Houston (both good and bad) for the past decade. His draft price this year is around pick 55 which is much lower than it has been in previous seasons. If drafting, it is easy to see his name and consider him an easy pick to lock down second base. This would be a mistake. Altuve turns 35 in May and is nearing the end of his career. His numbers dipped down a bit last year and are likely to continue trending in that direction in 2025. He should be avoided at his current draft cost.
Jose Altuve is a player that is always going to outperform his expected stats. With the Crawford Boxes and his style of play, looking at expected stats for Altuve can be a waste of time. However, they can help provide some insight into his future production. For example, Altuve’s expected slugging percentage declined for the second straight season last year. This number dipped below .400 for just the third time in his career. Altuve’s power took a significant step back in 2024. Despite remaining healthy for the entire season, Altuve hit just 20 home runs. After hitting a home run on 16.7% of his fly balls from 2021-2023, Altuve saw that number drop to 12.0% last season. Altuve has posted underwhelming batted-ball data throughout his professional career but to see his home run rate drop so significantly should be alarming for fantasy managers.
Altuve still managed to steal 22 bases last season but that seems unsustainable for 2025. Altuve’s speed has dropped off significantly in recent seasons. He is now a below average runner in terms of sprint speed. Rarely do we see players steal 20+ bases at 35 years old. The ones that do are those with elite sprint speeds. Altuve does not have that. His stolen bases are likely to decrease in 2025.
Selecting Altuve feels like a pick for name value. Altuve is still a useful player but is not the player he once was. The age-cliff is approaching Altuve and it would be wise to avoid him before he falls off of it.
Shortstop: Willy Adames, SFG
Willy Adames was incredible in his final season for the Brewers. Adames set career highs in home runs, stolen bases, runs, and RBIs. This landed him a $182 million contract from the Giants this off-season where he will look to continue his success. Whenever a player switches teams, fantasy baseball managers have to dig in and determine what production was from a player’s true skill, and what could change as their team context shifts. For Adames, the move to San Francisco may not be all rainbows and sunshine. Adames already landed on my off-season shortstop busts article and now finds himself mentioned in a negative article for the second time this off-season.
One of the biggest surprises for Adames came in his stolen bases. Entering 2024, Adames had never stolen more than eight bases in a season. Even with the new rules starting in 2023, Adames still only stole five bases. Then, all of a sudden, Adames stole 21 bases last season. This completely changed his perceived fantasy value. Adames’ value transformed from a power hitter with a mediocre average to a 20/20 player who was one of the best shortstops in fantasy. Adames’ 2024 production was incredible. However, there is nothing in Adames’ profile that suggests this speed is here to stay. Adames’ sprint speed ranks in the 50th percentile which is close to the league average. He is moving from a team that loves to steal to a team that runs a lot less. Expecting Adames to steal more than 10 bases in 2025 would be a mistake.
The other main point, which was also hit on in the busts article, is Adames’ power projection. American Family Field is an underrated hitters’ park for right-handed batters. The park factor for home runs to righties is 111 which ranks sixth in all of baseball. In comparison, Oracle Park has a park factor for home runs of 79. This is a 32% decrease. Home runs are not going to be as easy to come by for Adames in his new home ballpark. Fantasy managers need to factor this into their 2025 evaluation.
Adames does not hit for a high batting average and is likely to see regression to both his home run and stolen base totals in 2025. In drafts, Adames is going as the 10th shortstop off the board around pick 77. Adames is an easy player to avoid in drafts. He could be considered a league-losing pick if you are relying on him to be your fantasy shortstop for the 2025 season.
Third Base: Junior Caminero, TBR
Yet another player who landed on a bust article already released this off-season. Junior Caminero was one of the top prospects in baseball entering last season. Since being acquired by the Rays from Cleveland’s organization, Caminero has turned into a star in the dynasty community. Huge Minor League numbers have led to huge expectations for his fantasy production. Sometimes, the expectations exceed the realistic outcome. Despite struggling in the Major Leagues to this point, Caminero is being drafted as the 3B8 in drafts inside of the top 100 picks. At this price, Caminero is likely to disappoint fantasy managers in a big way.
Much of this was hit on in the bust article, but Caminero has not done anything at the Major League level. In fact, Caminero has looked overmatched. He has struggled to lay off pitches out of the strike zone and has posted contact rates well below the league average. This is not to say Caminero cannot turn into a very good Major League player. This also does not mean that Caminero is a bust because he has struggled in his first 213 Major League plate appearances. However, using a top-100 pick on a player who has not showed any signs of success at this level is a mistake that fantasy managers will regret throughout the season.
Caminero’s fantasy value is contingent on his home run output. He hit 31 in the Minor Leagues in 2023 and has significant raw pop. The issue is a bad launch angle that was an issue for him in the Major League last year. Caminero hits a lot of balls on the ground limiting his home run output. Barring a significant swing change, his ceiling for 2025 is likely around 28 home runs. 28 home runs with very few stolen bases and a mediocre batting average is not enough for fantasy managers. His prospect pedigree is pushing Caminero up draft boards. He is an easy player to avoid at his cost with much better options available. Do not make the mistake of drafting Caminero at his price for 2025.
Outfield: Luis Robert, CWS
The White Sox were supposed to be a team to reckon with for years to come. Behind young stars Yoan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Luis Robert, the future appeared bright. Things did not work out quite like many expected. Instead, the White Sox now find themselves as the laughingstock of baseball. While most of the optimism has faded away in the past few seasons, Luis Robert still holds significant fantasy value. He is being drafted as the OF21 at pick 83 in drafts. This is the biggest mistake fantasy managers can make when forming their outfield.
Luis Robert has put up some gaudy fantasy numbers. In 2023, Robert hit 38 home runs and stole 20 bases. He was one of the best players in fantasy. There is no denying Robert’s incredible potential. The key to that season was Robert staying healthy. 2023 is the only season of Robert’s career in which he played in more than 100 games. Injuries have played a consistent theme in Robert’s career. Fantasy managers should not have any faith that Robert will stay healthy for the entire 2025 season.
Robert is one of those players who thrives off of the energy around him. He is a high-energy player who also lets the negativity around him impact his production. This is what we saw in 2024 as trade rumors swirled and Robert remained on the worst team in baseball. Robert posted the lowest batting average of his career and seemed tuned out at times last year. Investing a top-100 pick in a player like this carries too much risk.
Robert’s production also dipped significantly in 2024. Robert posted a whiff rate in the second percentile and a chase rate in the 10th percentile. Plate discipline and contact skills have been issues for Robert in the past. They finally caught up to him in 2024. There is no reason to believe that Robert’s strong batting averages will return in 2025. For as great as Robert can be in the home run and stolen base departments, fantasy managers need to assume he will post low batting averages again in 2025. Robert’s draft price is too high for the risk profile he carries making him an easy player to avoid in drafts.
Pitcher: Jacob DeGrom, TEX
Jacob DeGrom has been one of the best pitchers of the past decade. He turns 37 in June, but the argument can still be made that when healthy, DeGrom is the best pitcher on the face of this earth. In 1,367 career innings, DeGrom owns a 2.52 ERA. He has not posted a FIP of three or higher since the 2017 season. The argument for classifying DeGrom as a league-loser is simple. Draft capital. In early drafts, DeGrom is going as the 10th starting pitcher off the board. He is being selected inside of the top 50 picks. Investing this level of draft capital into DeGrom in 2025 is bound to lead to disappointment for fantasy managers later on.
The confusing part is that this seems obvious. Fantasy baseball managers have been in this same exact situation before. DeGrom has a CVS-receipt-sized list of injuries. He has routinely battled arm injuries throughout his Major League career. DeGrom has not pitched more than 92 innings in a season since 2019. In each of the past three seasons, he has failed to reach 65 innings pitched. DeGrom is not getting any younger either. He is already 36 years old and the injury risk is only getting greater. There is no reason that fantasy managers should expect more than 100 innings out of DeGrom in 2025. His current draft price is way too high for 100 innings of production.
Yes, when DeGrom on the mound he has been great. He returned at the end of last season and looked as good as ever. His fastball velocity was still up over 97 mph and his slider looked as good as ever. The issue is that those numbers were in short stints. How DeGrom’s stuff holds up over a full season’s workload could look completely different following his second Tommy John Surgery.
If you are drafting Jacob DeGrom in drafts, you are investing at least a fourth-round pick (in standard 12-team leagues). Some of the other notable names going around him are George Kirby, Dylan Cease, Corbin Burnes, and Manny Machado. Those players are all reliable fantasy assets who have proven to fantasy baseball managers that they can provide quality production throughout the season. Unfortunately, that is not who DeGrom is anymore. Injury risk needs to be heavily factored into draft cost for players like DeGrom. Why draft DeGrom at pick 46 when you can draft Tyler Glasnow over 60 picks later? Glasnow offers elite pitching upside, but his injury risk is factored in at a much higher level than DeGrom’s. For as great as he is, DeGrom is likely going to kill fantasy teams with his inability to stay healthy. Selecting him at his draft cost is a league-losing decision.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
Could you evaluate the mid and long relievers? There are relievers that hold, get wins and saves, all with a significant strike out total.
Sure as in you would like to know which middle relief and long relief guys could provide value in deeper leagues?