With many slots to fill at outfield, it is imperative for fantasy baseball managers to land a good one. In 10-team leagues, that could mean missing out on Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Tucker, and Corbin Carroll. So where do you go from there? Having early, mid, and late round targets in the outfield can help you plan for those inevitable moments where you miss out on a player you want. Below are my favorite targets at each point in the draft, using NFBC ADP for reference.
Early-Round Outfield Target
Jackson Chourio – MIL
It can be risky to put your faith in a 21-year-old as your top outfield target, and what amounts to a first or second-round pick. But Jackson Chourio has the talent to return first-round value and makes for an excellent early-round target.
The youngster surpassed 20 homers and 20 steals in his rookie season, while also batting .275. The only other players to do that were Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez, Jarren Duran, Bobby Witt Jr., Jose Altuve, and Gunnar Henderson.
He has solid hard contact, with a barrel rate just below league average and a HardHit rate about 6% better than league average. There is definitely room to improve as he gains more experience. So far in spring, he has shown improvements in driving and pulling the ball. If Chourio can improve in both type and quality of contact, he could see an increase in both homers and AVG this season, or a repeat at the very least.
Chourio is a great choice as an early-round target in the outfield.
Mid-Round Outfield Target
Brandon Nimmo – NYM
Brandon Nimmo has been a solid player for the last three seasons, appearing in at least 150 games in each. His production improved significantly last season in terms of RBI and steals. He finished the season with 23 home runs, 88 runs, 90 RBI, and 15 steals, but a .224 AVG.
Last year was Nimmo’s first season surpassing 70 RBI, even mostly batting first or second in the lineup. He may be able to replicate that, but it will depend on what the Mets decide to do with their lineup. With Soto’s addition, he may take over the two-hole. If they decide to lead Nimmo off, he could be in line for a huge increase in runs, but if they decide to bat him later, he could add RBI. Either way, it is good news for the veteran.
The most exciting part of his game is the addition of steals. Last season was his first reaching double-digits, and if he continues to run, it adds major value to his game. We also should expect some positive regression to his AVG. His BABIP dipped significantly, which is a sign of bad luck.
If you need an outfielder around pick 170, Nimmo should be on your radar as a mid-round target.
Late-Round Outfield Target
George Springer – TOR
For a player who has played in at least 130 games, with at least 580 plate appearances in each of the last three seasons, George Springer is going awfully late in drafts. He should continue to see major playing time and bat early in what should be a good Toronto lineup.
Springer’s value may have dropped due to a dip in production last year. It was his first season since 2020 where he did not have at least 20 homers, and just his second season finishing with an AVG under .258. Springer saw a 50-point drop in his BABIP last year, likely due to an increase in groundballs. It was his first season with a groundball rate of at least 50%.
He has had a pretty consistent approach for most of his career, resulting in multiple productive seasons. Last year looks more like an anomaly, though most may point to his age as a detraction, as it is his age-35 season.
Even if he regresses some, an average of his last three seasons is not a bad buy as late in the draft as he’s going.
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