For the past week, I’ve been involved in a deep-league slow draft. Each manager has four hours to make a selection, there are 15 teams, and all rosters have 30 spots to fill. It’s taking forever. We’re not even halfway done! Though this might not sound fun to you, a normal person, it sure is for me. Not only is the challenge welcomed, but leagues like this really force you to hone in on your established strategies.
I wanted to write about one of those strategies this week. Identifying – and drafting – the safest early-round players. Being conservative with your early-round picks is important. Those players comprise the foundation of your team. They’re supposed to be in your lineup day after day and ideally would do your statistical heavy lifting. They’re not always the most exciting players, so it requires some discipline to pull off.
What you’re really looking for, as compared to a high upside in the late rounds, is something often referred to as a high floor. Basically the term means that, unless there’s a freak injury, the worst-case scenario for a particular player’s production is still very good. Even if luck isn’t on his side this year, his numbers will still be helpful. Adhering to this strategy is even more important in deep leagues, as you’re much less likely to find quality replacements on waivers during the season.
So with all this in mind, the following players all have a proven track record. They’re all exceptionally healthy. And they all have enough talent to the vagaries of a full statistical baseball season. I’ve listed them below round by round. And in practice, I like to draft at least three of them.
Safest Players of Round Two
Yordan Alvarez OF Astros ADP 16
2024: 147 G 88 R 35 HR 86 RBI 6 SB .308 AVG
Still one of the best pure hitters in baseball, Yordan Alvarez represents some serious stability in the second round of drafts. As usual, the 27-year-old’s 2024 slash line was good for a top-10 finish in all ratios (.308 (6th)/.392 (4th) /.567 (5th). And also, as usual, the underlying metrics certainly backed it up. Outside the first round of ADP, the righty had the highest xSLUG (4th overall) and xwOBA (4th). And was pretty close in xBA (7th). He has now hit over 30 home runs for four seasons in a row. He’s coming off of his healthiest season (147 games last season were a career-high). And the only thing keeping him out of the first round is his lack of speed. Pair the veteran with a base-stealer and you’ll have a great foundation to build on for the rest of your draft.
Zack Wheeler SP Phillies ADP 21
2024: 200 IP 16-7 W-L 224 K 2.57 ERA 0.95 WHIP
For what it’s worth, this is a general draft policy of mine: if you select a pitcher within the first two rounds, he better have a proven track record of consistency and durability. Zack Wheeler sure fits the bill. You want consistency? This is the righy’s line over the last five seasons: 2.94 ERA/1.03 WHIP/9.8 K/9/2.0 BB/9. That’s over the course of 133 starts! And his durability is just as impressive. The veteran is not only coming off his second career 200-inning campaign, but has made over 30 starts in four of his last of his last five seasons (bypassing 2020). Yeah, I know he’ll turn 35 in May. But in a world where every pitcher carries significant injury risk, give me the proven workhorse. With his velocity remaining mostly unchanged the last three seasons (four-seemer at 95.9, 95.8, and 95.3 MPH, respectively), and early Spring Training numbers in that same range, I think we can depend on at least one more harvest.
Safest Players of Round Three
Matt Olson 1B Braves ADP 28
2024: 162 G 78 R 29 HR 98 RBI 0 SB .247
Matt Olson’s 2024 season is a perfect example of what the fantasy baseball industry refers to as a high floor. There’s going to be a certain amount of variability from year to year. Though Matt Olson hit his fewest home runs since 2018, drove in and scored his fewest since 2019, and though his average exit velocity and hard-hit rates matched the levels we saw in other less-productive seasons, the final outcome was still very useful (above). The facts are, the soon-to-be 31-year-old hasn’t missed a game since May of 2021. His contact metrics, though down last year, still grade out as near-elite (all in the 80-percentile range). And injuries to the Braves lineup last season decreased run-producing opportunities. Last year was likely among the slugger’s worst possible outcomes. Even if 2025 isn’t his best, odds are you will still greatly benefit.
Logan Gilbert SP Mariners ADP 29
2024: 208 IP 9-12 W-L 220 K 3.23 ERA 0.89 WHIP
It’s taken a few successful seasons for fantasy managers to draft Logan Gilbert as a top-five pitcher. That was largely a result of poor contact metrics and a relatively low K rate (58th percentile in 2023). But last year the 27-year-old made some major improvements. Specifically, his fastball velocity went up a tick (to 96.6 MPH), he relied more on his very effective slider (.268 xwOBA), and his splitter went from very good to downright deadly (32.2% whiff rate in 2023 vs. 50.6%). Those changes led to career highs in strikeouts (6th overall), WHIP (led MLB), and swinging-strike percentage (led among qualified starters). And it complemented his already great control (ranked 95th percentile the last two seasons). Which in turn allowed the righty to take a further step forward in innings pitched (also led MLB). With a solid three-year track record (3.38 ERA/1.04 WHIP/9.0 K/9), the best home ballpark for pitchers (Park Factors), virtually no injury history, and seemingly no holes in his game now, this is by far the safest 3rd-round pitcher to build on.
Safest Player of Round Four
Pete Alonso 1B Mets ADP 38
2024: 162 G 91 R 34 HR 88 RBI 3 SB .240 AVG
Do we have room for another 30-year-old first baseman who played every game last season and somewhat underperformed his usually very high standards? Much like the case with Matt Olson, Pete Alonso has a very long track record of slugging. He’s hit at least 34 home runs in all five of his non-2020 seasons. And during that time, he’s averaged 110 runs batted in. Last season appears to be the outlier when he had a career-low in both categories. And that’s backed by expected stats that were down a notch in xBA (.242), xSLUG (.461), and xwOBA (.343). Again, much like in Olson’s case, these are still impressive numbers and would seem to be the floor for the Polar Bear. Now that he’s back with the Mets, and the lineup should be better with the addition of Juan Soto, I don’t see why you wouldn’t expect him to improve from here.
Safest Player of Round Five
Teoscar Hernandez OF Dodgers ADP 54
2024: 154 G 84 R 33 HR 99 RBI .272 AVG
Though a high K rate (28.8%) can vary his batting average from year to year, Teoscar Hernandez has become a very safe source of power. The 32-year-old has hit at least 25 home runs in each of the last five seasons (excluding 2020). And three of those five included 90 or more RBI. The consistency is backed by some elite and near-elite batted-ball metrics (particularly a 94th percentile barrel rate) and very good health (only fewer than 143 games played once over the last four seasons). And starting last season, he now has the advantage of batting in the middle of an offense-powerhouse Dodgers team. That, combined with some home-run-friendly confines (Dodgers Stadium ranks 2nd in home runs per Park Factors), led to a career-high in home runs and 2nd-best run and RBI totals. With a fresh three-year contract this offseason, we can safely expect that output to continue.
Safest Players of Round Six
Framber Valdez SP Astros ADP 61
2024: 176.1 IP 15-7 W-L 169 K 2.91 ERA 1.11 WHIP
Framber Valdez has been using the same successful recipe for many years. He throws his sinker most of the time. It gets hit hard (hard-hit in the 6th percentile), but consistently on the ground. His 61.7% ground ball rate in 2024 was in the 99th percentile. Nothing new. This by itself might not have great results, but the lefty also has three secondary pitches that generate good whiff rates. That would be a curveball (39.8%), a changeup (35.4%), and a slider 38.3%). All told, this has led to the following combined line in the last three seasons: 3.06 ERA/1.13 WHIP/8.8 K/9. This is over the course of 90 starts, which means the 31-year-old is also good at staying healthy. He might not rack up the strikeouts like some other names in the early rounds, but he provides the high floor you ought to be targeting in this range.
Pablo Lopez SP Twins ADP 66
2024: 185.1 IP 15-10 W-L 198 K 4.08 ERA 1.19 WHIP
Speaking of high-floor pitchers, Pablo Lopez is a great fallback option if Valdez is already off the board for your round-six pick. He’s another pitcher who consistently pitches every fifth day. In fact, he hasn’t missed a start since 2021. Unlike Valdez, though, Lopez’s game is about limiting hard contact (average exit velocity ranks 75th percentile), displaying near-elite control (90th percentile), and providing fantasy managers with strikeouts (71st percentile). Sure, the 29-year-old is prone to the occasional blow-up start. His inflated ERA is the result of five appearances that yielded six or more earned runs. A lot of that damage was via the long ball (1.26 HR/9). But he also had 12 starts of one earned run or fewer.
FWIW, the xERA was significantly lower than the real thing in the past two seasons (3.67 ERA vs. 3.00 in 2023 and 4.08 vs. 3.67 in 2024), and could be partially explained by a higher-than-usual BABIP (.313 in 2023 and .310 in 2024). But even at face value, the veteran is a safe bet to give you volume, help you in both wins and strikeouts, all while not killing your ratios. He’d be a particularly great pairing with a lower ERA/less-track-record pitcher from the top of the draft. Pitchers like Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal, and Garrett Crochet.
For more of the great fantasy baseball rankings and analysis you’ve come to expect from FantraxHQ, check out our full 2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit! We’re here for you all the way up until Opening Day and then on into your championship run.
