Is there a top prospect rankings list?
This is the question I couldn’t stop thinking about. I’ve been replying to a lot of questions in the Rates & Barrels discord this draft season but my first reaction to this question was, “I could write a whole article to answer that.” I shot a couple of quick tips and went looking for such an article and found some results, but none that completely covered what I was thinking about. So a few weeks later, here I am, writing it myself.
In this series, I’ll be sharing what I’ve learned about managing a fantasy farm system in my 10-plus years of playing in dynasty baseball leagues.
The Truth About Prospect Rankings Lists
My first dynasty league was a 20-teamer with 15-player farms when I had only played shallow redrafts and keep-sixes. It was hard to find any list that went past 101 and some honorable mentions. Things have certainly changed since then, but while there are lists that go 500 deep, they aren’t all free and they diverge wildly after the top 75 or so, which gets us to the first lesson:
1. Every List has a Bias
Whether it’s one fantasy writer locked in a tower or an industry vet talking to dozens of scouts around the league, everyone favors certain skills over others and weighs some risks more heavily. It takes time to learn all those biases, but they’ll come through the more blurbs you read. Just keep in mind that no one prospect list is The Truth and that you’re probably better off looking at as many sources as you can. That can be overwhelming to start off though, so let’s start with some basics.
2. Beware “Real Baseball” Lists
MLB Pipeline and Baseball America have many great writers and scouts on staff and churn out some of the most referenced prospect lists in the game. Keith Law worked in the Blue Jays front office and was a champion of analytics when the value of OBP vs. Batting Average was still a debate. They all know prospects. But they rank for Major League value, not fantasy, and that makes them not the best lists for us.
3. Defense Matters, but not as much
Real baseball lists put a lot of weight on defensive value, especially the “Up the middle” positions of Catcher, Shortstop, and Center Field. Unless you’re in a sicko league, we just see Outfielders and don’t care what their jumps and routes look like or how good their arm is. 2023 Kyle Schwarber’s -21 Defensive Runs Saved didn’t hurt our fantasy teams on the way to 47 bombs. Defense does matter for playing time and future position eligibility (Schwarber was drafted as a catcher), but “Hits enough to be an MLB catcher” is probably just one of several interchangeable fringe options for us. On the flipside, “Bat plays anywhere” is music to our ears. One last note on catchers, because of the defensive rigors of the position and intangibles like game calling, their development timelines are longer than other hitters and catchers tend to debut as backups more often.
Shortstop is a little different, because scouts will tell you – and you’ll quickly see in lists – that almost everyone seems to start at shortstop. In high school and college, the best athlete on a team plays short, and many are drafted as such even if that’s not their ultimate big league position. If they don’t have the range, they’ll be pushed to second or third base depending on their arm. Or if they have the range but not the hands and reactions, they could move to the outfield. The main thing this means for us is: Don’t worry about having “too many” shortstops, and be wary of the “Defense-first” tag on them. What does concern us is the other end of the spectrum. If a guy is already a first baseman or left fielder coming out of the draft, that puts a lot more pressure on their bat to carry them, but it also places them lower on those lists than dynasty, because we love a stone-footed masher. Just be careful of merely “above average” power on these types.
TL;DR – Don’t rely solely on a real baseball list. You’ll end up reading all the blurbs when you get deep into it, but for now, avoid those traps.
4. Dynasty Rankings Lists
Here at Fantrax, we rank 600 prospects for dynasty, but if you’re just starting out, you probably don’t need that many (unless, like me, you’re diving into the deep end). The big difference you’ll see in dynasty rankings is how they value proximity, ceiling, and floor. This is usually tuned to the league size they are most familiar with (typically medium deep with between 100 and 200 rostered). Shallower leagues value proximity and ceiling and aren’t as worried about busts, while deeper leagues care more about floor and probability (closer to MLB lists). This difference gets more stark the further down a list you go.
Proximity can be a trap when a guy has a big spring and makes the team or gets sent down late, but looks like the Next Guy Up. Even if they weren’t a top prospect before, you can see these guys pushed up the rankings in March and April alongside teenagers who have a lot more potential. It can put Zach Dezenzo next to Konnor Griffin, who hasn’t played a game of professional ball yet.
In the end, today’s dynasty lists are good enough that it’s hard to go wrong blindly drafting off any of them if you haven’t had time to research an extra 100-plus guys you’ve never heard of before your draft. In addition to our Fantrax Dynasty Rankings, my personal preference is Baseball Prospectus, which I mention not to plug but just to inform you where my own biases may come from.
If this article came too late and you beefed your draft, don’t worry, the rest of this series is for you. I’ll be covering topics like:
- Reading Scouting Reports
- Statline Scouting
- Deep and Shallow League Adjustments
- Farming for Winners/Contenders/Rebuilds
- Weird Format Adjustments
