League and roster size make a big difference in how you should prioritize prospects, but no one is crazy enough to make separate prospect lists for different formats (or AM I???) So today I’m gonna talk about how to adjust a typical dynasty list for shallow keeper leagues.
Dynasty vs. Shallower Keeper Leagues
I’m well overdue to define keeper vs dynasty. In dynasty leagues you can keep your whole roster year to year, and cuts are voluntary. Keeper leagues have you protecting a limited number of players – as few as one! But more typically 5-9 as a core so that the draft still has enough talent to make or break a season. Keeper leagues also may or may not have minor league slots in addition to MLB keepers.
Ceiling is King in Keeper. For a prospect to “hit,” they have to be good enough to be a keeper, not just playable in your format. Otherwise, you’re just drafting them for the current season and should use redraft values.
If you don’t have minor league slots, you can safely ignore almost anyone more than a year away. They need to be a top 5 prospect to even be in consideration to keep with no MLB production. Currently, that list of players is just Sebastian Walcott. Jesus Made or Konnor Griffin, who could float into the top 10 of some lists with a good pro debut, but unless they move like Juan Soto, they’re 3-4 years away and not worth an MLB keeper slot. If you’re not competing you can probably afford a top 10 guy who could get the call, like Roman Anthony last year or Walker Jenkins this year, if they have a real shot at being a stud when they do.
Shallow Farming
If you do have a farm, Made and Griffin are exactly the types you want to target. High upside prep (high school) bats out of the draft and names from last year’s international signing period (J15) are worth the risk of failure when you’re trying to build a core, not fill out the edges of your roster. Zyhir Hope, Leonardo de Vries, and Ryan Waldschmidt are a few more names in those categories.
What you want to avoid are “Well-rounded” players and “Polished college bats” without a carrying tool. Nolan Schanuel and Christian Moore are recent examples of this type of player who were high draft picks but of no interest to shallow leagues.
The exception to chasing ceiling are players who you can keep as prospects that will help your team immediately. Prospects who may have gotten a cup of coffee in the big leagues but not enough to exhaust their rookie eligibility can be great value for contending teams, even if they’re unlikely to stick beyond the current season. Jordan Westburg is a great example of a guy who didn’t have a very high ceiling but played a lot and hit well enough to work his way into shallow keeper consideration.
Opportunity Cost and Pop-ups
The other reason to get a couple of players like Westburg and not load up entirely on teenagers is that you do want to have an open slot or two to snag pop-up prospects in-season. 2024 had more guys jump into the top 100 than any year I can remember. Kristian Campbell could be had for free in a lot of leagues last year. This is why information is vital. You want prospects you will learn something about so you can move on quickly. The worst thing you can do is hold a guy for three years before realizing he’s not gonna make it.
TINSTAAPP
They say There is No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect, and this is most true in shallow leagues, where outside of Paul Skenes, pitchers simply don’t come up and immediately dominate. And if they do, they’re most likely available to pick up when they do. Dynasty lists have gotten pretty good at pouring cold water on pitchers, and there’s typically only a handful with the upside and proximity to care about in shallow leagues. Right now this list is as follows:
- Bubba Chandler
- Andrew Painter
- Brandon Sproat
- Noah Schultz
- Chase Burns
- Hagen Smith
- Quinn Matthews
A month ago, I would have included Alejandro Rosario, but he headlines the next group
Profiles to Avoid: Under the Knife
When a top arm gets elbow surgery, you have to cut him loose in leagues that roster fewer than 100 prospects. You just can’t afford to put them in a box for a year. This was true of Painter a couple of years ago, and is true of Rosario now. Once they’re back on a mound is another story, though. This also applies to long-term hitter injuries. You can probably move on from Chase DeLauter for now.
Profiles to Target: Returning from TJ
Andrew Painter pretty quickly re-established his prospect stock, so be prepared to pick up Rosario a year from now.
Profiles to Avoid: The 60 Hit – 40 Power – 40 Speed
There are a couple of these guys near the top of boards right now, Kevin McGonigal and soon-to-graduate Jacob Wilson, with expected plus hit tools and below-average power. Unless these types have blazing speed, they’re generally not going to be rosterable. Once in a generation they find power and become Jose Ramirez, or the hit tool is truly elite and they’re Luis Arraez. But more often they just don’t impact the ball enough to impact fantasy categories like Nolan Schanuel.
Profiles to Avoid: The 50/55 “All-rounder”
These players are going to be major leaguers but will often be described as “lacking a carrying tool,” and that kinda means no fantasy tool. Sometimes this is the good outcome for the above profile, where they trade some contact for power and run enough, but that still looks like Nathaniel Lowe or Ian Happ. Fringe top-100 guys that are rostered every year but rarely kept. You don’t want these guys until they are knocking on the door and can help you immediately. Colt Emerson is the poster adult son for this profile on current lists.
Profiles to Target: The Toolshed
Even more than other formats, you want to chase ceiling. The bar for impact is so high and replacements/popups so available that you want to take big hacks at guys with early-round potential, even if their swing is ugly or their strikeout rate is too high. Channel your inner Kyle Schwarber. Everyone loves Sebastian Walcott, but some might be scared away by Coby Mayo’s 47% strikeout rate in 17 big league games. Konnor Griffin and Bryce Rainer are the best examples from the 2024 draft class, and Zyhir Hope is a recent riser on lists. Jesus Made put up some very silly numbers in the very silly Dominican Summer League, including process metrics that have people buying in.
Profiles to Avoid: J15 Signees We Haven’t Seen
Made was not one of last year’s January 15th international signing period players that made it onto first-year player lists. Some sites ignore these players entirely, which is generally what I would do in these formats. Outside of the occasional consensus best, it’s better to wait for them to make some noise before picking them up, because even a year or two later, they will still be a long way from making an impact. The problem with drafting them in their signing year is that outside an aggressive assignment (like the Padres did with Ethan Salas and Leo De Vries), you just won’t learn much about them until they make it to A ball. When they do pop, they can be the kind of high-risk, high-reward players you want.
Profiles to be Cautious With: Rabbits
The double-plus speed guys can be very exciting for fantasy, but we really want to see them hit, and hit for at least fringe average power to really be building blocks. Nico Hoerners are volatile, and even Billy Hamilton was a controversial player at his peak. When they can hit even 10-15 homers we should take notice, though. Corbin Carroll is a first-rounder, but Esteury Ruiz struggled to stay healthy enough despite some signs his power could get there. Slade Caldwell, Griffin Burkholder, Kellon Lindsey, and Braylon Payne are speedsters worth watching to see if they show enough pop. If they do, you might be able to snag them before the lists catch up.
Next time, I won’t just be writing the opposite of everything I said here when I talk about deep leagues, I promise.
