We are starting to get into the swing of the 2025 baseball season—well, some of us more than others. Looking at you, Willson Contreras and Joc Pederson. Week 4 is a robust one, weather permitting. Ten teams are scheduled to play seven games, while the other 20 are on tap for six. There are no day games on Monday, which should be helpful for those setting weekly lineups.
Pitching Matchup Ratings With a Twist
In last week’s initial edition of the Hitting Planner, I outlined how this column will look and discussed some data points to consider when setting your lineups. First, I listed my matchup rating for each offensive team for the pitchers they are facing. The lower the number, the better the matchup for the hitter. These are still weighted towards preseason WAR for the time being. I do not want to completely change the calculus when less than 10 percent of the season has been played. We are still several weeks away from numbers beginning to normalize. However, I have tweaked the format a little.
Last week, I listed one total ranking for all starting pitchers that each team was facing and another for the bullpens each team was facing. I am switching that up this week. Below is a separate ranking for each day in Week 4. I did this because even though this is a weekly column, I also want to help those in daily leagues. An offense may have an average matchup when looking through a weekly lens, but there could be some days when they have more favorable matchups than others. Let me know if you prefer this format to last week’s or vice versa.
I also do not want to overreact to tough matchups. Fantasy baseball is quite different from fantasy football in that regard. An elite cornerback can hold a top wide receiver to a reduced number of targets. Or a stud running back can play on a team that falls behind early, limiting his workload. In baseball, volume is generally going to be there on a weekly basis regardless of the circumstances. The Kansas City Royals are going to play seven games this week, barring any postponements. There is no scenario on earth where Bobby Witt Jr. plays all seven games but only gets 15 or 20 plate appearances. So yes, he will face Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty in Week 4. But he will also face 12-15 other pitchers of lower quality for probably 25 combined plate appearances. You’re never benching Witt anyway, but you get my point.
Park Factors
I also list expected park factors that each offensive team will be subject to in Week 4. In these columns, higher numbers are better for hitters and are weighted by a factor of 100. If you see a park factor of 105, the offense should generally see a five percent uptick in offensive production compared to their normal output. I list one column for left-handed hitters and one for right-handed hitters. These are based on general offensive numbers, not just a single statistic like home runs or batting average.
As I mentioned last week, there are some unique conditions we are dealing with in 2025. The Athletics and Rays are playing in new ballparks this year. But again, I do not want to put too much weight into tiny sample sizes. So until numbers begin to stabilize, I am using last year’s park factors with a three-year rolling average. That means in a scenario like this week where Tampa Bay plays seven home games, their park factors will be listed as “N/A”, since we do not have enough data. Similarly, the teams they are hosting this week (Boston and the New York Yankees) will have park factors for the other games on this week’s schedule. For example, Fenway Park has a 110 factor for left-handed hitters. Therefore, I list Boston as a 110 factor for their left-handed hitters, excluding the three games they are playing in Tampa Bay.
Week 4 Hitting Planner
| Tm | G | HOME | ROAD | LHB PF | RHB PF | v. LH SP | v. RH SP | M | T | W | TH | F | Sat | Sun | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 6 | 0 | 6 | 101.5 | 98 | 0 | 6 | OFF | 2.8 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| ATH | 6 | 0 | 6 | 98.5 | 98.5 | 1 | 5 | OFF | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 |
| ATL | 6 | 3 | 3 | 98.5 | 101.5 | 1 | 5 | 2.2 | 5.3 | 4.2 | OFF | 6.1 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 5.1 |
| BAL | 6 | 6 | 0 | 100 | 99 | 3 | 3 | OFF | 4.4 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| BOS | 6 | 3 | 3 | 110 | 104 | 1 | 5 | 3.6 | 3 | 3.7 | OFF | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 2.5 |
| CHC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 97.5 | 96.5 | 0 | 6 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 5.3 | OFF | 6.2 | 5.1 | 4 | 5.2 |
| CHW | 6 | 3 | 3 | 104.5 | 102 | 3 | 3 | OFF | 3.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 7.4 | 5.8 | 4.3 |
| CIN | 6 | 3 | 3 | 102.5 | 101.5 | 1 | 5 | OFF | 5.7 | 5 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 5.1 |
| CLE | 6 | 0 | 6 | 102 | 98.5 | 0 | 6 | OFF | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 6 | 3.6 | 4.6 |
| COL | 6 | 3 | 3 | 104.5 | 107 | 1 | 5 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | OFF | 3.1 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 3.4 |
| DET | 7 | 4 | 3 | 97.4 | 97.6 | 3 | 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 4 | 3 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.9 |
| HOU | 6 | 3 | 3 | 99.5 | 100.5 | 1 | 5 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 3.9 | OFF | 3.5 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 |
| KC | 7 | 0 | 7 | 97.9 | 98.9 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 7.2 | 0 | 2.1 | 4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 4.1 |
| LAA | 6 | 3 | 3 | 99.5 | 101.5 | 1 | 5 | OFF | 3.5 | 4.5 | 7 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.7 |
| LAD | 6 | 3 | 3 | 99.5 | 101 | 1 | 5 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 2.6 | OFF | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| MIA | 6 | 3 | 3 | 103.5 | 100 | 2 | 4 | OFF | 4 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 5.9 |
| MIL | 6 | 6 | 0 | 98 | 97 | 2 | 4 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | OFF | 2.5 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| MIN | 6 | 3 | 3 | 100.5 | 101.5 | 1 | 5 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 4.1 | OFF | 3.7 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| NYM | 7 | 4 | 3 | 98.6 | 99.7 | 1 | 6 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 5.6 |
| NYY | 7 | 3 | 4 | 99 | 100 | 1 | 6 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 3 | 3.6 | 3 | 3.7 |
| PHI | 7 | 7 | 0 | 103 | 100 | 1 | 6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 2 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.9 |
| PIT | 7 | 7 | 0 | 104 | 98 | 2 | 5 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 1.2 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.7 |
| SD | 6 | 3 | 3 | 98.5 | 98.5 | 3 | 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | OFF | 3.1 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 |
| SF | 7 | 0 | 7 | 100.9 | 100.9 | 4 | 3 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3.8 | 4.9 |
| SEA | 6 | 0 | 6 | 101.3 | 103 | 2 | 4 | OFF | 3.4 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 3.5 |
| STL | 7 | 3 | 4 | 96.9 | 99.3 | 2 | 5 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 6 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 5.5 |
| TB | 7 | 7 | 0 | N/A | N/A | 3 | 4 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 5 | 6.4 | 4 | 7.2 | 5.1 |
| TEX | 6 | 6 | 0 | 101 | 101 | 1 | 5 | OFF | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 6.1 | 7 | 4.2 | 4.4 |
| TOR | 6 | 6 | 0 | 98 | 102 | 0 | 6 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 3.3 | OFF | 6.4 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 4.6 |
| WAS | 7 | 0 | 7 | 107 | 104.4 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
