It’s tough to call any fantasy baseball players overvalued or undervalued this early in the season. No team has played more than about ten percent of their games, and sample sizes are infinitesimal compared to what we normally need to make long-term judgments on players.
However, based on early performance, team usage, and changes to a player’s approach or mechanics, it’s already clear some players were undervalued in fantasy baseball draft rooms while others appear to have been overvalued.
This weekly piece will look at the past seven days of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 500 rotisserie rankings for the 2025 fantasy baseball season.
Undervalued Players
(Stats are up to date as of April 14)
Jonathan Aranda (1B – TBR)
If you knew before reading this sentence that Jonathan Aranda led all of Major League Baseball in batting average, congratulations, you know a lot more than I do. I was unaware that not only was his average so high, but that his .698 slugging percentage trails only Aaron Judge (and likely Tyler Soderstrom after Tuesday night). He has had a phenomenal start to the season, hitting a pair of home runs and striking out only 20% of the time.
Aranda toiled away in AAA for some time, but still is just 26 years old and appears to be playing as the starting first baseman about five out of every six games. His exit velocity and barrel rate are up and look elite. He is striking out less. And, perhaps most importantly, he is hitting a lot fewer ground balls and getting the ball in the air more than ever. He is not currently playing against left-handed pitching, which limits his immense upside somewhat. But for a player selected around pick 350 in spring drafts, he has already paid off whatever price you paid to get him.
If Aranda is available on your league’s waiver wire, go and get him right now.
Jung Hoo Lee (OF – SFG)
Giants outfielder Jung Hoo Lee lost almost all of 2024 to an injury as he was also trying to adapt to moving to the U.S. and play in a new league. It’s no wonder drafters were cautious and picked him after pick 250 in drafts this spring. But defying all those odds, Lee has been fantastic over the first three weeks, showing exactly why the Giants paid to get him from Korea onto their team.
Lee, through 66 plate appearances, is hitting .322/.394/.644 with three home runs, three steals, and 16 runs atop the Giants’ batting order. He also has eight doubles, which is why his .644 has stayed so strong. The threat of slump or injury is always on the horizon, but Lee looks like one of the steals of fantasy baseball drafts in the first month of the season. His low 16% strikeout rate and high 11% walk rate assure that there will be a solid baseline here from a fantasy perspective.
Kodai Senga (SP –NYM)
Much like Jung Hoo Lee, Senga missed just about all of the 2024 season with injury. He pitched 5.1 innings and then was lost for the year with a shoulder problem. And also like Lee, drafters were cautious this spring, drafting Senga around pick 137, and after the top 40 pitchers. With the same cultural, injury, and adjustment hurdles that Lee had to face, it would make sense that Senga needed time to acclimate to MLB this year. That has proved not to be needed as Senga already has two wins, a 1.06 ERA, and is striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings.
Senga’s walk rate and home run rate are both top-shelf, and he has the same 47% groundball rate that he brought over from Japan in 2023. His barrel rate allowed in 2023 was a low 6.8%, and he is already topping that this season with just 4.5% allowed through his three starts. How many innings Senga can give the Mets this year will be the big question, but he frequently topped 160 overseas, so we should at least get that range in 2025.
Overvalued Players
Bo Bichette (SS – TOR)
As draft season rolled along before the 2025 season, Bo Bichette was a name that started going higher and higher as spring went along. He eventually settled around pick 110 overall, even after a disastrous 2024 campaign. In that season, he hit .225/.277/.322 with four homers and five steals in 81 games. Fantasy managers chalked up his season to bad luck and a plethora of injuries, and noted he would be fully healthy and 27 years old in 2025.
That is all still true, and Bichette’s batting average has certainly rebounded (hitting .297 through April 14), but he still has not hit a home run or stolen a base this year. After a 29/25 season at age 23, we all still seem to be chasing that upside, but it just has proven not to be there consistently. Is Bichette still getting unlucky in 2025 in terms of his power and speed? Perhaps, but at some point, bad luck just turns into poor performance.
Bichette’s barrel rate and hard-hit rate have rebounded this year (9.8% and 53.2%). His expected slugging percentage (.571) is much higher than his actual number (.365). The underlying metrics say he should have at least some power, but nothing has emerged. The 25 steals in 2021 look more and more like a mirage with each passing day. He has 23 TOTAL stolen bases since that season and shows no signs of that changing in 2025.
Matt Chapman (3B – SFG)
Matt Chapman’s 2024 was his best season since 2019 in Oakland. Despite hitting in spacious Oracle Field, Chapman blasted 27 home runs, drove in 98 runs, and stole 15 bases. Those 15 stolen bases were more than he stole in his entire career combined to that point, and 27 home runs were an unexpected power burst in that park. Looking back at it now, and with 17 games under his belt in 2025, it appears that was the perfect storm of events, leading to a career season.
Chapman is now hitting .179/.343/.321 with two home runs and two stolen bases. His BABIP is a very low .229, but that’s impacted by a 27% strikeout rate this year (24% in 2024). His hard hit rate and barrel rate are way down, and when you combine that drop with the disadvantage of the park he is in for half his games, Chapman is facing an uphill battle to reach value on his ADP of pick 115 in spring drafts.
Trevor McGill (RP – MIL)
After the trade of Devin Williams to the New York Yankees, the presumed closer was Trevor McGill. In 2024, McGill filled in and saved 21 games, struck out more than a batter per inning, and only gave up 0.78 home runs per nine innings. He was the logical candidate for the ninth inning, especially as hard-throwing Joel Payamps struggled. However, McGill may be one of the worst closer picks of draft season so far.
McGill has just one save to go along with a 5.79 ERA and 7.7 walks per nine innings. He is striking out a ton of batters (15 per nine), but he is allowing too much hard contact and only getting a 20% groundball rate. That’s a lethal combination for a closer. Perhaps Jared Koenig or Abner Uribe will get a shot to close some games soon, so McGill can work things out, but for now, McGill doesn’t have the same dominant traits he possessed when he was locking down games for the Brewers in 2024.
Trevor Megill not McGill