It usually takes a month for a starting pitcher to get a two-start week. So when that week finally comes and the pitcher has one or two tough matchups, it can be maddening. It’s always hard to resist the temptation to roll the dice. Though, league context is a key consideration for level of risk. In points leagues, for instance, the risk is the lowest as the floor is usually a zero point contribution. The riskiest league format is a head-to-head category league, where one bad start can quickly sink a teams’ chance to win. That’s why I take those aspects into consideration when calculating the start confidence rating for two-start pitchers in the weekly starting pitcher rankings.
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Starting Pitcher Rankings for Week 7 (5/5 – 5/11)
| Rank | Pitcher | Team | Opponent | Start Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Garrett Crochet | BOS | @KCR | 9 |
| 2 | Tarik Skubal | DET | @COL | 8 |
| 3 | Hunter Brown | HOU | CIN | 8 |
| 4 | Cole Ragans | KCR | CWS/ BOS | 8 (CWS=9 & BOS=7) |
| 5 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | @TBR/ @CLE | 8 (both matchups) |
| 6 | Zac Gallen | ARI | NYM/ LAD | 7 (NYM=8 & LAD=6) |
| 7 | Chris Sale | ATL | CIN/ @PIT | 7 (CIN=6 & @PIT=8) |
| 8 | Framber Valdez | HOU | @MIL | 7 |
| 9 | Michael Wacha | KCR | CWS | 7 |
| 10 | Kris Bubic | KCR | CWS | 7 |
| 11 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | @MIA | 7 |
| 12 | Max Meyer | MIA | @CWS | 7 |
| 13 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | @TBR | 7 |
| 14 | Cristopher Sanchez | PHI | @TBR | 7 |
| 15 | Paul Skenes | PIT | @STL | 7 |
| 16 | Sonny Gray | STL | @WSH | 7 |
| 17 | Logan Webb | SFG | @MIN | 7 |
| 18 | Jacob deGrom | TEX | @DET | 7 |
| 19 | Chris Bassitt | TOR | @LAA | 7 |
| 20 | Corbin Burnes | ARI | NYM/ LAD | 6 (NYM=7 & LAD=5) |
| 21 | Spencer Schwellenbach | ATL | CIN | 6 |
| 22 | Shota Imanaga | DET | @NYM | 6 |
| 23 | Seth Lugo | KCR | CWS/ BOS | 6 (CWS=7 & BOS=5) |
| 24 | Shane Smith | CWS | @KCR/ MIA | 6 (both matchups) |
| 25 | Hunter Greene | CIN | @ATL | 6 |
| 26 | Jack Flaherty | DET | TEX | 6 |
| 27 | Yusei Kikuchi | LAA | TOR | 6 |
| 28 | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | LAD | @ARI | 6 |
| 29 | Pablo Lopez | MIN | BAL/ SFG | 6 (BAL=5 & SFG=7) |
| 30 | Kodai Senga | NYM | @ARI | 6 |
| 31 | Clay Holmes | NYM | @ARI | 6 |
| 32 | Carlos Rodon | NYY | SDP/ @ATH | 6 (SDP=5 & @ATH=7) |
| 33 | Max Fried | NYY | SDP | 6 |
| 34 | Jesus Luzardo | PHI | @TBR | 6 |
| 35 | Aaron Nola | PHI | @CLE | 6 |
| 36 | Michael King | SDP | @NYY/ @COL | 6 (both matchups) |
| 37 | Nick Pivetta | SDP | @COL | 6 |
| 38 | Luis Castillo | SEA | TOR | 6 |
| 39 | Jose Berrios | TOR | @LAA | 6 |
| 40 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | @SEA | 6 |
| 41 | MacKenzie Gore | WSH | STL | 6 |
| 42 | Grant Holmes | ATL | CIN | 5 |
| 43 | Cade Povich | BAL | @MIN/ @LAA | 5 (@MIN=4 & @LAA=6) |
| 44 | Tomoyuki Sugano | BAL | @MIN | 5 |
| 45 | Lucas Giolito | BOS | TEX/ @KCR | 5 (both matchups) |
| 46 | Tanner Houck | BOS | TEX | 5 |
| 47 | Walker Buehler | BOS | @KCR | 5 |
| 48 | Matthew Boyd | DET | SFG/ @NYM | 5 (SFG=6 & @NYM=4) |
| 49 | Colin Rea | DET | SFG | 5 |
| 50 | Ben Brown | DET | SFG | 5 |
| 51 | Sean Burke | CWS | @KCR/ MIA | 5 (both matchups) |
| 52 | Ben Lively | CLE | @WSH | 5 |
| 53 | Logan Allen | CLE | @WSH | 5 |
| 54 | Tanner Bibee | CLE | PHI | 5 |
| 55 | Kyle Freeland | COL | DET | 5 |
| 56 | Jackson Jobe | DET | @COL/ TEX | 5 (both matchups) |
| 57 | Reese Olson | DET | TEX | 5 |
| 58 | Ronel Blanco | HOU | @MIL/ CIN | 5 (both matchups) |
| 59 | Hayden Wesneski | HOU | @MIL | 5 |
| 60 | Jose Soriano | LAA | TOR | 5 |
| 61 | Landon Knack | LAD | @MIA | 5 |
| 62 | Roki Sasaki | LAD | @ARI | 5 |
| 63 | Dustin May | LAD | @ARI | 5 |
| 64 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | LAD/ @CWS | 5 (LAD=4 & @CWS=6) |
| 65 | Edward Cabrera | MIA | @CWS | 5 |
| 66 | Jose Quintana | MIL | @TBR | 5 |
| 67 | Joe Ryan | MIN | BAL | 5 |
| 68 | Bailey Ober | MIN | SFG | 5 |
| 69 | Chris Paddack | MIN | SFG | 5 |
| 70 | Tylor Megill | NYM | CHC | 5 |
| 71 | Griffin Canning | NYM | CHC | 5 |
| 72 | Clarke Schmidt | NYY | @ATH | 5 |
| 73 | Luis Severino | ATH | SEA/ NYY | 5 (SEA=6 & NYY=4) |
| 74 | Jeffrey Springs | ATH | SEA | 5 |
| 75 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | @CLE | 5 |
| 76 | Mitch Keller | PIT | @STL | 5 |
| 77 | Matthew Liberatore | STL | PIT | 5 |
| 78 | Dylan Cease | SDP | @NYY | 5 |
| 79 | Robbie Ray | SFG | @CHC | 5 |
| 80 | Jordan Hicks | SFG | @MIN | 5 |
| 81 | Bryce Miller | SEA | @ATH/ TOR | 5 (both matchups) |
| 82 | Bryan Woo | SEA | @ATH | 5 |
| 83 | Ryan Pepiot | TBR | PHI | 5 |
| 84 | Taj Bradley | TBR | MIL | 5 |
| 85 | Nathan Eovaldi | TEX | @BOS/ @DET | 5 (@BOS=4 & @DET=6) |
| 86 | Tyler Mahle | TEX | @BOS | 5 |
| 87 | Bowden Francis | TOR | @SEA | 5 |
| 88 | Mitchell Parker | WSH | STL | 5 |
| 89 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | NYM | 4 |
| 90 | Brandon Pfaadt | ARI | LAD | 4 |
| 91 | AJ Smith-Shawver | ATL | CIN/ @PIT | 4 (CIN=3 & @PIT=6) |
| 92 | Dean Kremer | BAL | @MIN | 4 |
| 93 | Kyle Gibson | BAL | @LAA | 4 |
| 94 | Brayan Bello | BOS | TEX | 4 |
| 95 | Jonathan Cannon | CWS | @KCR | 4 |
| 96 | Davis Martin | CWS | @KCR | 4 |
| 97 | Bryse Wilson | CWS | MIA | 4 |
| 98 | Brady Singer | CIN | @ATL/ @HOU | 4 (both matchups) |
| 99 | Andrew Abbott | CIN | @ATL/ @HOU | 4 (both matchups) |
| 100 | Nick Lodolo | CIN | @ATL | 4 |
| 101 | Luis Ortiz | CLE | @WSH/ PHI | 4 (@WSH=5 & PHI=3) |
| 102 | Gavin Williams | CLE | PHI | 4 |
| 103 | Chase Dollander | COL | DET/ SDP | 4 (DET=5 & SDP=3) |
| 104 | Antonio Senzatela | COL | DET | 4 |
| 105 | Casey Mize | DET | @COL | 4 |
| 106 | Michael Lorenzen | KCR | BOS | 4 |
| 107 | Tyler Anderson | LAA | TOR/ BAL | 4 (TOR=5 & BAL=3) |
| 108 | Kyle Hendricks | LAA | BAL | 4 |
| 109 | Ryan Weathers | MIA | LAD | 4 |
| 110 | David Peterson | NYM | @ARI/ CHC | 4 (both matchups) |
| 111 | Carlos Carrasco | NYY | SDP | 4 |
| 112 | Will Warren | NYY | @ATH | 4 |
| 113 | JP Sears | ATH | NYY | 4 |
| 114 | Bailey Falter | PIT | ATL | 4 |
| 115 | Andrew Heaney | PIT | ATL | 4 |
| 116 | Steven Matz | STL | PIT | 4 |
| 117 | Erick Fedde | STL | @WSH | 4 |
| 118 | Andre Pallante | STL | @WSH | 4 |
| 119 | Stephen Kolek | SDP | @NYY | 4 |
| 120 | Randy Vasquez | SDP | @COL | 4 |
| 121 | Landen Roupp | SFG | @CHC/ @MIN | 4 (both matchups) |
| 122 | Justin Verlander | SFG | @CHC | 4 |
| 123 | Emerson Hancock | SEA | @ATH | 4 |
| 124 | Drew Rasmussen | TBR | PHI/ MIL | 4 (PHI=3 & MIL=5) |
| 125 | Shane Baz | TBR | PHI | 4 |
| 126 | Zack Littell | TBR | MIL | 4 |
| 127 | Eric Lauer | TOR | @LAA/ @SEA | 4 (both matchups) |
| 128 | Jake Irvin | WSH | CLE | 4 |
| 129 | Eduardo Rodriguez | ARI | LAD | 3 |
| 130 | Bryce Elder | ATL | @PIT | 3 |
| 131 | Jameson Taillon | DET | @NYM | 3 |
| 132 | Nick Martinez | CIN | @HOU | 3 |
| 133 | Lance McCullers Jr. | HOU | CIN | 3 |
| 134 | Jack Kochanowicz | LAA | BAL | 3 |
| 135 | Tobias Myers | MIL | HOU/ @TBR | 3 (both matchups) |
| 136 | Quinn Priester | MIL | HOU | 3 |
| 137 | Simeon Woods Richardson | MIN | BAL | 3 |
| 138 | Osvaldo Bido | ATH | NYY | 3 |
| 139 | Carmen Mlodzinski | PIT | @STL/ ATL | 3 (@STL=4 & ATL=2) |
| 140 | Miles Mikolas | STL | PIT | 3 |
| 141 | Jack Leiter | TEX | @BOS | 3 |
| 142 | Brad Lord | WSH | CLE | 3 |
| 143 | Trevor Williams | WSH | STL | 3 |
| 144 | Ryan Feltner | COL | SDP | 2 |
| 145 | German Marquez | COL | SDP | 2 |
| 146 | Cal Quantrill | MIA | LAD | 2 |
| 147 | Chad Patrick | MIL | HOU | 2 |
| 148 | Gunnar Hoglund | ATH | SEA | 2 |
| 149 | Logan Evans | SEA | TOR | 2 |
| 150 | Michael Soroka | WSH | CLE | 2 |
| 151 | Patrick Corbin | TEX | @DET | 1 |
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