As the second month of the season draws close to an end, fantasy baseball players are starting to show who they are in 2025. With two months of data, a player’s fantasy performance is starting to become less fluky and more representative. Is there still time for a player to adjust? Of course, but we can start to get a clearer picture of who is overvalued and undervalued in 2025 fantasy baseball.
Based on early performance, team usage, and changes to a player’s approach or mechanics, it’s already clear some players were undervalued in fantasy baseball draft rooms while others appear to have been overvalued.
This weekly piece will look at the past seven days of fantasy baseball performances to see who should be considered overvalued and undervalued going forward. When necessary, I will reference the Fantrax top 500 rotisserie rankings for the 2025 fantasy baseball season.
Undervalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
(Stats are up to date as of May 12)
Brett Baty (2B/3B – NYM)
Mets’ infielder Brett Baty hit another home run on Tuesday night, giving him five on the season. While that may not sound like much, consider what he has done just in the last week. Baty is hitting .286/.286/.929 with three homers and six RBI. He has just 72 plate appearances this season, but it appears he is going to stick at second base as long as Jeff McNeil is out, and also pick up the occasional start or appearance at third base.
Baty has seen his barrel rate more than double since last season, and his hard-hit rate has increased from 33% in 2024 to 44.7% in 2025. His exit velocity is up, his contact is up, and at just 25 years old, Baty is just starting to enter his prime years. At this rate, he doesn’t face much competition from Luisangel Acuna, and even when McNeil gets back, the Mets are going to have to find a place to keep Baty in the lineup.
Jonathan Aranda (1B – TBR)
In case you missed it in the Tampa Bay-Toronto slugfest on Monday, Jonathan Aranda crushed another mammoth home run. It was his sixth of the season, and raised his slugging percentage to .568. His slugging percentage trails only six players this season. Essentially, it’s the same as Kyle Schwarber, who has 14 home runs. He has had a phenomenal start to the season, including striking out only 22% of the time.
Aranda toiled away in AAA for some time, but is still just 26 years old and is the starting first baseman in most games for the Rays. His exit velocity and barrel rate are up and look elite. He is striking out less. And, perhaps most importantly, he is hitting a lot fewer ground balls and getting the ball in the air more than ever. He is not currently playing against left-handed pitching, which limits his immense upside somewhat. But for a player selected around pick 350 in spring drafts, he has already paid off whatever price you paid to get him.
If Aranda is available on your league’s waiver wire for some reason, go and get him right now.
Kris Bubic (SP –KCR)
I know this may not be the Houston Astros of the last seven years, but did you see what Kris Bubic did to them on Tuesday night? Before the Astros walked it off in the ninth, Bubic pitched 6.1 innings, gave up just one run, and struck out nine batters. That lowered his ERA to 1.66, which is now the fifth-lowest among all pitchers in the majors. Add in 56 strikeouts in 55 innings, and Bubic is a bona fide ace this year.
This ascension started last season when Bubic had a 2.67 ERA across 27 starts and struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings. This year, he has lowered his home run rate, is stranding more men on base, and is inducing groundballs 45% of the time against all hitters. This year, he has decreased his fastball usage and upped his changeup frequency, which is a devastating pitch at 85 miles per hour.
For a pitcher who was going around pick 350 in drafts, Bubic is all we could have asked for more and much more.
Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Assets
Corey Seager (SS – TEX)
It’s another IL stint for Corey Seager, who has been placed back on the injured list with a reaggravation of the hamstring strain that has bothered him this season. It’s easy to place the blame for his recent poor play on the injury, but the truth is, there are starting to be some cracks in his offensive armor as Seager plays in his age-31 season.
Seager still has an overall awesome line. Any of us would take a player hitting .300/.346/.520. But his walk rate is the lowest of his career, his exit velocity is down, and the injuries are starting to pile up. Seager has not played in more than 123 games since 2022, and the miles of the last 10 seasons are starting to catch up with him.
Overall, Seager will be a nice source of power and average when he is healthy. But Seager was selected around pick 45 in spring drafts. This is too much volatility for a player who should be a cornerstone of a fantasy team’s offense.
Anthony Santander (OF – TOR)
Going back to the Tampa Bay-Toronto game. There may have been 20 runs scored, but Anthony Santander did not join the offensive party. Can Anthony Santander get his run production back from his days in Baltimore, or is he actually not worth the eighth-round pick we spent on him in spring drafts?
After signing a large contract with Toronto, Santander is hitting just .196/.275/.336, and that was before Tuesday’s 0-for-3 performance. He has just five home runs through 160 plate appearances. Something is up, and I don’t think it’s as simple as just needing time to adjust to a new team and a new hometown.
Santander’s barrel rate is way down from 2024. He only has a 4.6% barrel rate, which is not what a power hitter should have, and all his contact metrics are down. First pitch strikes, contact rate, zone contact rate. Everything is worse so far in 2025. This is too good of an offense to keep down for long, but Santander’s performance is something to keep an eye on to see if he can break out of a slump.
Tanner Bibee (SP – CLE)
Tanner Bibee was on every single fantasy analyst’s pitcher sleeper list heading into the 2025 season. That pushed his draft spot right up to about pick 100 this spring. After a 3.47 ERA and 9.69 strikeouts per nine innings last year, things were looking way up for the 26-year-old. Unfortunately, however, the arrow is pointing down for Bibee as we move past the two-month mark of the season.
Bibee’s ERA is up to 3.80, his strikeout rate has tumbled to 6.2 per nine, and his walk rate is up almost one walk per nine innings. He is allowing way more hard contact, and his barrel rate against is significantly up over what it was in 2024. There are signs of a potential turnaround with his 44% groundball rate (34% in 2024), but the flyballs he allows are leaving the park at an alarming 16% rate.
Right now, Bibee is struggling to make it into the top 40 pitchers for 2025. He needs a turnaround on his walks and strikeouts to get back to what drafters thought they were getting this offseason.
